This article is part of our Yahoo PGA DFS Picks series.
3M Open
Blaine, Minnesota
TPC Twin Cities - Par 71 - 7,431 yards
Field - 156 entrants
Purse - $7.8M
The Preview
Two regular season events remain on the PGA Tour's 2022-23 schedule as the battle near the bubble of the coveted top-70 mark in the FedExCup standings intensifies after the final chapter of this year's major championship chronicles concluded with Brian Harman separating from the field in the rain and wind at Hoylake, likely clinching another trip overseas to the Ryder Cup in the process. We now turn our attention to a hot and muggy Blaine, Minnesota where the fifth edition of the 3M Open drew a couple notable debutants, such as Justin Thomas.
TPC Twin Cities is a lengthy par-71 layout that features a plethora of water hazards off the tee, so a combination of both driving distance and accuracy is required in order to rack up scoring opportunities and avoid the demoralizing doubles or worse. Bombers should be able to reach all three of the par-5s in two, however, while quality long-iron play will be helpful on several 200-plus yard par-3s as well. Some of the simplest and smoothest bentgrass greens you'll find on Tour complete the venue, which is sure to become a birdie carnival if the wind doesn't howl.
Recent Champions
2022 - Tony Finau
2021 - Cameron Champ
2020 - Michael Thompson
2019 - Matthew Wolff
Key Stats to Victory
SG: Approach
Birdie or Better percentage
SG: Off-the-Tee
Proximity: 175-plus yards
Yahoo Value Picks
Based on $200 salary cap
Cream of the Crop
Cameron Young - $43
Especially by their standards, the Finau/Thomas/Im crew atop this board is slumping, leaving Young as the logical favorite after back-to-back top-8s at the John Deere Classic and The Open Championship. Young paced the entire field in both SG: Off-the-Tee and SG: Approach last week at Royal Liverpool, but a brutal short-game showing ultimately kept him from threatening Brian Harman down the stretch. He's lost nearly 15 cumulative strokes with the flat stick across seven starts dating to the PGA Championship, though TPC Twin Cities' fairly easy putting complexes should provide a legitimate chance for positive regression.
Hideki Matsuyama - $40
Ranking No. 1 among this week's field in SG: APP, proximity, Opportunities Gained and bogey avoidance over his last 24 measured rounds, Matsuyama's course fit is extremely promising if he's able to avoid the disastrous putting performances that we saw from him at the PGA Championship and the U.S. Open in recent months. He's coming off a T13 finish at The Open, and Matsuyama tied for seventh at the inaugural 3M Open in 2019 when he gained seven strokes with his irons.
Glue Guys
Sepp Straka - $34
Straka avoided a post-win hangover as the John Deere Classic champion tied for second in his very next start at Hoylake, also finishing second in SG: APP at The Open Championship while ascending to 15th in the FedExCup standings. He's now No. 2 in Birdies or Better Gained and bogey avoidance over his last 24 rounds, and Straka hasn't lost strokes off the tee since the RBC Heritage in mid-April.
Austin Eckroat - $32
The hope is that Eckroat's recent MC-T65 stretch at the Rocket Mortgage Classic and the Genesis Scottish Open helps limit his rostership, because he still models quite well, thanks in part to rankings of seventh in Opps Gained, seventh in bogey avoidance, 12th in Prox: 175-200 yards and 17th in SG: OTT over his past 24 rounds. Prior to the MC in Detroit, Eckroat rattled off five consecutive top-30s from the AT&T Byron Nelson to the Travelers Championship, lending himself a serious shot at qualifying for the FedExCup Playoffs.
Lucas Glover - $29
Glover unexpectedly found something with the putter en route to results of T4-T6 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic and the JDC, but then he tacked on a solo-fifth at the Barbasol Championship despite losing 0.7 strokes on the greens in Kentucky, where he paced the tournament in SG: Approach. Aside from a tough outing at the Travelers, Glover's ball striking has been tremendous as of late, rising to No. 1 in Opps Gained, second in proximity, second in P3: 200-225 Efficiency, third in SG: APP and eighth in Prox: 200-plus over his last 24 rounds.
Bargain Bin
Ludvig Aberg - $23
Aberg's salary didn't budge from the $20 minimum after four straight top-40s to begin his professional career, including a T4 at the JDC, but it finally jumps a measly $3 after a missed cut in Scotland. We're still buyers of such a talented player at this affordable price tag, given he can be found as short as 22/1 to win the whole thing in the outright betting market. Throughout his last 12 measured rounds, Aberg sits second in SG: OTT, third in Birdies or Better, fifth in driving distance and sixth in Prox: 175-200 yards.
Doug Ghim - $20
Gaining no less than 2.7 strokes off the tee in each of his three 3M Open appearances, Ghim already owns a pair of top-20 finishes here at TPC Twin Cities where he posted the second-best putting performance of his career last year. Prior to a missed cut at the Genesis Scottish Open, Ghim was on a roll with six consecutive top-35s from the Wells Fargo Championship to the JDC, notably finishing second in SG: Tee-to-Green at the RBC Canadian Open. Ghim is one of only two players in this week's field to rank top-15 in both SG: APP and SG: OTT over their last 24 rounds.
Peter Kuest - $20
Examining a three-month sample, Kuest really stands out in my custom model this week as he ranks No. 1 in driving distance, sixth in SG: OTT, sixth in Birdies or Better and 10th in Prox: 200-plus over his last 18 rounds, which include a trio of top-20s and a fourth-place effort at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. He's gained an average of 2.9 strokes per event with his irons across his past four starts, and I'm not worried about his MC at the Barbasol Championship where he lost a collective 3.7 strokes on and around the greens at Keene Trace.
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