This week, I have a chance to toot my own horn, because as a second-year expansion team in the esteemed RotoWire THL league, I've already clinched first place for this season with two weeks to go in the schedule.
To win this league, I took a lot of the advice that I've shared in this space, and I hope you've done the same.
This is not a fluke occurrence, as I've thoroughly examined the fantasy hockey space for the past 25 years and have won many annual titles over that period. That's why I'm here.
Let's talk about some of the key resources that led to my success this season.
Topping that list: RotoWire's NHL depth charts.
Knowing who's playing with whom at any point in time is a key consideration. You want those guys getting the playing time next to the top players everyone recognizes. You also need to know who's set to see power-play time and who's starting in goal (also found on RotoWire) on every game night.
After that, your preparation involves a bit of math.
Take care in understanding the rules of your draft and the scoring categories. This will cause you to weigh the relative importance of forwards, defensemen and goalies in your pools. Draft in accordance with those weights. For instance, there's little point in drafting goalies early unless the relative weight of their impact dictates you do so.
Unlike financial statements, I will say that past performance is indicative of
This week, I have a chance to toot my own horn, because as a second-year expansion team in the esteemed RotoWire THL league, I've already clinched first place for this season with two weeks to go in the schedule.
To win this league, I took a lot of the advice that I've shared in this space, and I hope you've done the same.
This is not a fluke occurrence, as I've thoroughly examined the fantasy hockey space for the past 25 years and have won many annual titles over that period. That's why I'm here.
Let's talk about some of the key resources that led to my success this season.
Topping that list: RotoWire's NHL depth charts.
Knowing who's playing with whom at any point in time is a key consideration. You want those guys getting the playing time next to the top players everyone recognizes. You also need to know who's set to see power-play time and who's starting in goal (also found on RotoWire) on every game night.
After that, your preparation involves a bit of math.
Take care in understanding the rules of your draft and the scoring categories. This will cause you to weigh the relative importance of forwards, defensemen and goalies in your pools. Draft in accordance with those weights. For instance, there's little point in drafting goalies early unless the relative weight of their impact dictates you do so.
Unlike financial statements, I will say that past performance is indicative of future returns, at least in terms of what we can reasonably expect from players year after year, assuming they retain similar roles and stay injury free.
Oh yeah, injuries… they happen, folks. No player is immune.
In those cases where you have injures on your roster, you will always find a replacement. Maybe the replacement won't produce to the rate of your injured stars, but you can usually find a good option or two based on recent trends. To find the best options, you can use Rotowire's player profiles to see what players have been producing in their last block of 20 games or any other slice of the season.
So what am I looking forward to doing over the remaining schedule?
Well, it's time to plan ahead in my keeper league.
I have depth that extends beyond what my protected list allows, so I'm looking forward to offering potential keepers to other owners who lack that luxury in exchange for their draft picks. The first step is figuring out who my keepers are. To do that, I need to establish my projected player rankings for next year. I will do that by a points-per-game adjustment that will rebalance point totals for the fact that most players have missed some of the 82 scheduled games. Then I'll see where my players rank by position (forward, defense and goalie). Once I settle on my protected group, my plan shifts to what other league rosters have, and then to projecting what other teams' protected lists might look like before our draft.
From this point, I will try to see where my surplus players might fit. My expectation is that some of the lower-ranking teams will see a chance to upgrade with my available guys, who will certainly be better that some of their projected keepers. For instance, my defense includes Brett Burns, Roman Josi and Aaron Ekblad. I rank these guys among the top 15 blueliners in the NHL, but expect to keep only one or two, meaning the leftover players need to be traded to fetch me some draft picks. The sales pitch in these talks needs to be a "win-win" scenario, with my partners feeling good about acquiring players whom they consider improvements for their own protected lists.
In goal, I believe that Braden Holtby is one of the top three goalies in fantasy hockey this year (maybe even No. 1) and should be in that discussion for the next several years. He's the undisputed starting goalie for the top team in the standings. So protecting him is an easy decision. Next on my depth chart is John Gibson, who's emerged as the top dog in a tight two-goalie system in Anaheim. He's in the first term of a three-year contract, while Frederik Andersen hits restricted free agency at the end of this season. The Ducks are a perennial power in the West, and I think they could pursue a scenario that does not include Andersen, with Gibson starting the lion's share of their games next year. He has certainly been described as one of the top young goalie talents in the league. My job here is to find another owner who shares that assessment.
Once I exhaust my trade possibilities, I want to move on to a study of the unrestricted free agent market, keeping tabs on players who will move this summer. In most cases, they're going to be angling for teams and assignments that are at least as good as their current roles. So we need to know these roles and use this year's stats as a possible "floor" for futures levels of productivity.
If you're focused on daily games, there are other considerations that will enter into your planning as the season winds down.
Some teams are going to start resting players, reducing their minutes or even sitting them out entirely because they've locked up division titles or playoff spots. For instance, Washington has already clinched a playoff spot and is the class of the Metropolitan Division. As a result, Nicklas Backstrom, Alexander Ovechkin and Braden Holtby will likely get less playing time or even have the occasional night off to rest up for the serious shooting. Be wary of big-money players like them who will instantly be less attractive if they have little to play for or have their ice time reduced.
Other teams have already started taking a look at future prospects, most of whom have not played until recently. Keep an eye on how and where they're being used, as they may be nice value plays who give you the latitude to load up your roster with big-dollar players elsewhere in your lineup.
Goaltending is heavily impacted in daily games toward the end of the season because the relative importance of the remaining games will affect how the coaches hand out starting assignments. Top teams with a clear No. 1 guy will use their backups more, as will teams that are in "audition mode," playing out the season with little or no chance to make the playoffs. Meanwhile, teams that are on the cusp of contention or have a tenuous hold on a playoff spot will be leaning heavily on their starters.
Using this as a guide, Tampa's Ben Bishop, Boston's Tuukka Rask and Florida's Roberto Luongo would appear to be workhorses who will be appearing in most if not all of their team's remaining games in a three-team battle for first place in the Atlantic Division.
So these are some of my typical thought processes, and I'd love to hear from my readers. How do you plan out your teams? What you look for at this point of the hockey season? Care to share?
