DraftKings MMA: UFC 190 Preview

DraftKings MMA: UFC 190 Preview

This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.

The most dominant athlete in the world takes on brash, undefeated challenger in the main event in Rio de Janeiro.

If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests. Players get a $50,000 budget to select five fighters, and the scoring is distributed as follows:

Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.5 PTS
Advance (ADVC): +1 PT
Takedown (TD): +2 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +2 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +3 PTS

Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +100 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +50 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +25 PTS

Scoring Notes
Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.

Advances include: To Half Guard, To Side Control, To Mount, To Back Control

Now, on to the fights.

Main Event – Women's Bantamweight Championship

(C) Ronda Rousey (11-0-0) v. Bethe Correia (9-0-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Rousey ($12,200), Correia ($7,200)
Vegas Odds: Rousey (-1700), Correia (+1100)

I must admit, I am legitimately worried about Correia's health here. She ran her mouth about Rousey and her family and she talked her way into a title shot. She deserves credit for getting the opportunity, but she's made Rousey furious and I'm fairly positive that the good times for her are about to come to an end. From a fighting perspective, Correia is 3-0 in her UFC career. Those wins have come against Julie Kedzie, Jessamyn Duke and Shayna Baszler. That isn't exactly the '27 Yankees of the women's bantamweight division. Of Correia's nine career wins, two have come by KO and seven have come by decision. Is there a single person on the face of the earth who thinks that she can win a five-round decision from Rousey? There's nothing I can say about Rousey that you don't already know. Her elite Judo skills, the strength and her ground game are all-world. In her previous three fights, Rousey has defeated Cat Zingano (0:14 seconds), Alexis Davis (0:16 seconds) and Sara McMann (1:06). All three of those women would be heavy favorites in a fight against Correia. One of my most important rules when it comes to fantasy MMA is to not chase miracles. They're called miracles for a reason. Spending any of your DK salary on Correia would require said miracle. It's just a bad idea.
THE PICK: Rousey

Co-Main Event – Light Heavyweight

Mauricio Rua (22-10-0) v. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (21-6-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Rua ($10,500), R. Nogueira ($8,900)
Vegas Odds: Rua (-190), R. Nogueira (+165)

Since this card is taking place in Brazil, the UFC decided they could get away with having two Brazilian legends go at it in the co-main event. The problem is that both fighters are well past their prime, and this isn't a very good fight. Rua, the former UFC light heavyweight champion and Pride Grand Prix winner, is now 33 years old. He has one win since August 2012 and that came against a mediocre opponent in James Te Huna. Shogun is 1-4 in his last five contests and he's been knocked out in back-to-back fights against Ovince St. Preux and Dan Henderson. At 39 years old, Little Nog hasn't exactly been a picture of activity lately. He's fought just three times since December 2011. Those contests resulted in wins over Rashad Evans and Tito Ortiz, but Anthony Johnson obliterated Nogueira in 44 seconds in his most recent fight last July. Little Nog has elite Jiu-Jitsu skills, but I'm not convinced that he will be able to get the fight to the ground at his advanced age. I am picking against Little Nog, but I like his chances more than his brother's.
THE PICK: Rua

Heavyweight

Stefan Struve (29-7-0) v. Minotauro Nogueira (34-9-1, 1NC)
DraftKings Salaries: Struve ($10,800), Minotauro ($8,600)
Vegas Odds: Struve (-170), Minotauro (+150)

This is another bout between two guys who haven't exactly been lighting the world on fire of late. Struve has fought just twice since September 2012, both of which were knockout losses against Mark Hunt and Alistair Overeem. Minotauro has just one win since August 2011, and that came against a forgettable opponent in Dave Herman. Struve, the favorite, is going to have a couple things going in his favor this fight. First, at 27 years old, he's 12 years younger than Nogueira. Furthermore, at 7-0 tall, he's the tallest fighter in the UFC and is tied with Jon Jones for the longest reach in the company. Minotauro, the former UFC interim heavyweight champion and the former Pride heavyweight champion, is going to run into the same problem that his twin brother is in the Rua fight. He would have an advantage on the mat, but I'm just not sure will be able to force a younger, more athletic fighter to the ground. Struve has had a very tumultuous career. He has dealt with a serious heart condition and that has limited his ability to train and fight on many occasions. My biggest concern about Struve is that he's shown a very questionable chin in the past. Still, if he can keep this fight on the feet and use his kickboxing skills, I think he wins. Big Nog has never been known as a big knockout guy, as the vast majority of his wins have come via submission. I think Struve is just too tall and too athletic for Minotauro.
THE PICK: Struve

Heavyweight

Antonio Silva (18-7-0) v. Soa Palelei (22-4-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Silva ($8,800), Palelei ($10,600)
Vegas Odds: Silva (+150), Palelei (-170)

Since back-to-back wins over Travis Brown and Alistair Overeem a few years ago, Silva has taken a gigantic step backwards. He failed a post-fight drug test after a bout against Mark Hunt in December 2013 due to testing positive for elevated testosterone levels. Since then, he's had tumor in his pituitary gland removed and been knocked in by Frank Mir and Andrei Arlovski in back-to-back fights. He just doesn't look like the same fighter anymore. Palelei has won 12 of his last 13 fights. He best asset is his one-punch knockout power. This is a hard fight to break down. Silva looks nothing like the guy who challenged Cain Velasquez for the UFC heavyweight title in May 2013, but Palelei is 38-years old and he hasn't come remotely close to facing the top-flight competition that Silva has. I have more faith in Palelei than Bigfoot these days, but Silva's DK salary and the Vegas odds are both reasonable. Palelei just isn't that good to justify such a high salary.
THE PICK: Palelei

Women's Strawweight

Claudia Gadelha (12-1-0) v. Jessica Aguilar (19-4-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Gadelha ($11,200), Aguilar ($8,200)
Vegas Odds: Gadelha (-320), Aguilar (+260)

This is the fight I am most looking forward to on the entire card. Gadelha dropped a split decision to current UFC women's strawweight champion Joanna Jedrzejczyk in her last fight in December. Many people, this writer included, feel that Gadelha won the fight. Eight months later, Joanna has won the title and defended it successfully once, and Gadelha hasn't been in the octagon since. Her first fight back won't be an easy one. Aguilar is the former WSOF strawweight champion. Both of these women are elite ground specialists. Gadelha has six career wins by submission, Aguilar has seven. Gadelha is favored, and rightfully so, but Aguilar won't be a push over. I think Aguilar is an extremely good value, both in the Vegas odds and her DK salary. I was shocked her DK salary was so low. She's one of the better strawweights in the world. I would by no means be surprised if she pulled the upset. That being said, Jedrzejczyk has looked absolutely dominant lately as the champion, and I thought Gadelha got the better of her not all that long ago.
THE PICK: Gadelha

Welterweight

Demian Maia (20-6-0) v. Neil Magny (15-4-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Maia ($10,400), Magny ($9,000)
Vegas Odds: Maia (-160), Magny (+140)

I haven't exactly been all-in on Magny during his current seven-fight winning streak. I'm fairly certain that I've picked against him more often than I picked him to win. He continues to prove me, and many other people wrong. Magny doesn't have any elite attributes, but his all-around game is solid. He improves every single time we see him fight and he fights out of underrated camp in Colorado: The Elevation Fight Team. The 37-year-old Maia looked like he was finished after a unanimous decision loss to Rory MacDonald in February of last year, but he's bounced back to win both of his fights since then. The scouting report on Maia is the same as it's always been – elite Jiu-Jitsu and ground skills, and a questionable stand up game. Magny will almost certainly have the advantage if this turns into a boxing match, but Maia will hold an even bigger advantage if this fight ends up on the mat. This is a true pick 'em fight. I know Maia is going to have the home field advantage, but I'll take the guy who is on the long winning streak and is a decade younger.
THE PICK: Magny

Other Bouts

The Ultimate Fighter: Brazil 4 Lightweight Final

Glaico Franca (13-3-0) v. Fernando Bruno (16-2-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Franca ($10,200), Bruno ($9,200)
Vegas Odds: Franca (-150), Bruno (+130)
THE PICK: Bruno

The Ultimate Fighter: Brazil 4 Bantamweight Final

Reginaldo Vieira (13-3-0) v. Dileno Lopes (19-1-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Vieira ($8,100), Lopes ($11,300)
Vegas Odds: Vieira (+260), Lopes (-320)
THE PICK: Lopes

Light Heavyweight

Rafael Calvacante (12-5-0, 1NC) v. Patrick Cummins (7-2-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Calvacante ($8,800), Cummins ($10,600)
Vegas Odds: Calvacante (+140), Cummins (-160)
THE PICK: Cummins

Welterweight

Warlley Alves (9-0-0) v. Nordine Taleb (10-2-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Alves ($11,100), Taleb ($8,300)
Vegas Odds: Alves (-225), Taleb (+185)
THE PICK: Alves

Bantamweight

Iuri Alcantara (31-6-0, 1NC) v. Leandro Issa (13-4-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Alcantara ($11,000), Issa ($8,400)
Vegas Odds: Alcantara (-240), Issa (+200)
THE PICK: Alcantara

Middleweight

Vitor Miranda (11-4-0) v. Clint Hester (11-4-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Miranda ($9,100), Hester ($10,300)
Vegas Odds: Miranda (+135), Hester (-155)
THE PICK: Hester

Bantamweight

Hugo Viana (8-3-0) v. Guido Cannetti (6-3-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Viana ($10,900), Cannetti ($8,500)
Vegas Odds: Viana (-170), Cannetti (+150)
THE PICK: Viana

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Jon Litterine plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: DraftKings: JLitterine.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jon Litterine
Jon Litterine is RotoWire's lead MMA Writer and MMA Editor. He has covered numerous MMA events live. He's also RW's NHL Prospect Analyst. Jon has been writing for RotoWire since 2005. He is a graduate of U Mass-Lowell.
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