Top Picks and Predictions for UFC Rio: Oliveira vs. Gamrot
The UFC heads to Rio De Janeiro, Brazil, for a 12-fight card filled with compelling matchups. We will take a look at each bout across three platforms, including a former champion looking to reinsert himself into the lightweight title picture, and an undefeated knockout artist trying to continue his winning ways. Our betting lines this week come from the RotoWire MMA betting page and are accurate as of the post date of this article.
UFC Plays to Consider on DraftKings
Charles Oliveira ($7,600)
As dominant as Mateusz Gamrot can look when he is flowing, we've seen him turned into a panic wrestler by fighters like Dan Hooker when he is unable to maintain top control. Oliveira has an active guard and is willing to create scrambles. This should result in the former champion taking over the fight as "Gamer" fades down the stretch.
Montel Jackson ($9,000)
It's tempting to back Deiveson Figueiredo in this spot, as he will be the toughest test of Jackson's career on paper. However, this should be where the former flyweight really feels the difference of his new weight class, as Jackson will take a five-inch height advantage into this contest. "Quik" should also have a significant edge in strength and power, which could mean a short night for Figueiredo.
Kaan Ofli ($7,400)
Ofli is the first of two unlikely underdogs I am rolling with based purely on their opposition. I've spoken before about just how broken Ricardo Ramos looks in the Octagon, to the point where he sometimes looks ineffectual even on the ground. Ofli is aggressive and will never stop putting together offense, which could be enough to fluster the Brazilian. While he deserves a look for his submission ability, I am far past the point of trusting Ramos as a sizable favorite.
Clayton Carpenter ($8,200)
I've sung Carpenter's praises in the past for being a powerful boxer and tricky grappler. While he couldn't quite get the job done against Tagir Ulanbekov, he should be ready for Jafel Filho, who doesn't have much of a standup game to speak of. I expect Carpenter to apply pressure and limit the Brazilian's opportunities to bring the fight to the ground, but I am confident that he will be able to compete in that phase of the fight if necessary.
Luan Lacerda ($8,900)
As a grappler without much of a wrestling game, Saimon Oliveira's offensive options are limited. Lacerda has finished 10 of his 12 professional wins by submission and is not afraid to employ a power striking game on the feet. This leaves me wondering how Oliveira will generate the momentum to pick up his first UFC victory.
Irina Alekseeva ($6,600)
I believe the era of high-level BJJ players walking into the UFC and rolling over opponents is long over. To say that juijitsu champion Bia Mesquita is out of options if she has to stand in space is an understatement, as she was rocked and dropped as a (-1400) favorite by LFA fighter Shannel Butler in 2024 before finding a finish. While she is far from a world-beater, Alekseeva will pressure opponents and is tricky on the ground, as we saw in her submission victory over Stephanie Egger in 2023. Mesquita has existed in MMA to this point by grabbing her opponents and forcing her grappling. I simply can't bank on that against a fighter with high-level experience at such a heavy price.
Michael Aswell ($8,600)
Aswell is a torrent of offense, having landed 273 combined significant strikes in his UFC debut and Contender Series appearance. Lucas Almeida keeps his head on the center line and stands straight up in the pocket, which should allow Aswell to land heavy strikes and work a wrestling game to mix things up.
Try out these recommended fighters with different lineup combinations on our DraftKings UFC Lineup Optimizer.
UFC Plays to Consider on PrizePicks - Significant Strikes
Lucas Rocha OVER 28.5 Significant Strikes, Thomas Petersen OVER 23.5 Significant Strikes, and Julia Polastri UNDER 79.5 Significant Strikes
Rocha vs. Stewart Nicoll is a battle of two able scamblers that may just turn into a kickboxing match. "Kakamora" will likely come forward from the opening bell, but Rocha is good at maintaining space and should be able to snipe his opponent with shots as he attempts to close the distance.
Petersen has leaned on his wrestling of late, but I expect him to get back to his kickboxing against Vitor Petrino, who will be the superior grappler in this matchup. We have seen Petrino fight at the speed of his opponent before, and Peterson should use his leg kicks and try to keep Petrino out of the clinch.
Karolina Kowalkiewicz has fought at a much more measured pace in the second phase of her career, frequently attempting to slow down aggressive opponents with clinch entanglements and takedown attempts. There will still be plenty of strikes thrown from each combatant, but this fight should feature enough grappling to keep totals relatively low.
Interested in backing these or other selections on sites like PrizePicks? Check out the Best MMA Picks & Prop Bets by comparing lines to our projections using the RotoWire Picks & Props tool.
UFC Bets to Consider
Mario Pinto Wins via KO/TKO (+330)
Either man can find the canvas when Pinto faces Jhonata Diniz, but the vast disparity between KO prices has me recommending the undefeated fighter to get the job done. Pinto is by far the more fluid striker here, but he has a bad habit of waiting too long to get his offense going. While that is a concern against a powerful striker like Diniz, we have seen him get tired in the cage before, and Pinto is very durable. Diniz may take the opportunity to pull ahead early, but Pinto is athletic and should be able to withstand some adversity.
Joel Alvarez Wins in Round 1 (+130)
Alvarez has split his knockout and submission finishes fairly evenly in the UFC, so I would rather skip the guessing game and wager that he will finish Vicente Luque quickly. "The Silent Assassin" will need to overcome a four-inch height advantage here, and I doubt he will be able to close that distance without running into something hard. This could lead to a straight knockout or club-and-sub finish.
For more UFC wagers to consider, check out our MMA Best Bets for UFC Rio this weekend. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire MMA Betting section.
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