DraftKings MMA: UFC Brasilia Preview

DraftKings MMA: UFC Brasilia Preview

This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.

The most powerful woman in the sport is once again a monumental favorite as the UFC heads back to Brazil on Saturday night.

If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests. Players get a $50,000 budget to select five fighters, and the scoring is distributed as follows:

Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.5 PTS
Advance (ADVC): +1 PT
Takedown (TD): +2 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +2 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +3 PTS

Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +100 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +50 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +25 PTS

Scoring Notes
Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.

Advances include: To Half Guard, To Side Control, To Mount, To Back Control

Now, on to the fights...

Main Event – Women's Catchweight (140 pounds)

Cris Cyborg (16-1-0, 1NC) v. Lina Lansberg (6-1-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Cyborg ($13,000), Lansberg ($6,400)
Vegas Odds: Cyborg (-1300), Lansberg (+850)

I'm still not entirely sure what the UFC's plans for Cyborg are moving forward, but whatever they end up being, this fight will not help them achieve them. Cyborg still hopes to be able to fight at bantamweight eventually, but until then she is going to have to fight in catchweight bouts to preserve the health of her body. By all accounts, her weight cut for this bout has been a disaster. I truly don't think that her body frame will ever allow her to safely fight at 135 pounds. I appreciate the effort, but she has to put her personal well being above everything else. Either way, there is no reason that any main event fight, especially one that isn't changed on short notice, should feature the odds and salaries listed above. There are enough talented fighters in every single division to ensure lopsided fights like this aren't booked.

Cyborg lost her first pro fight in May 2005 and hasn't lost since. She is the reigning Invicta Featherweight Champion, and destroyed Leslie Smith in 81 seconds at her UFC debut in May. Cyborg seemingly has twice as much power in her hands as any woman in the sport today, and since she is already immensely popular, having her laying beatings on nobodies isn't going to further anyone's cause.

Lansberg also lost her first pro fight and hasn't lost since, although she hasn't faced anyone of note in her entire career, having fought in numerous different unknown promotions. It's admirable that she's willing to fight Cyborg in her native Brazil, but there's nothing in her background to lead us to believe that she has any chance whatsoever of pulling off an upset. If she wants to stand and trade with the Brazilian, she's going to sleep.

As far I know, the $13,000 salary that Cyborg is listed at is by far the highest in DraftKings MMA history. Putting fighters with massive salaries into your lineup is generally a poor move because if they don't get an early stoppage victory, you're sunk. I was going to advocate using Cyborg if her salary was in the $11,700-$11,800 range, but at $13k, she has to earn a first-round stoppage win, or else the rest of your roster is completely useless. The odds are probably better than 50/50 that such a stoppage will happen, but you have to take into account how much money you're willing to risk on that.

THE PICK: Cyborg

Co-Main Event – Featherweight

Renan Barao (35-4-0, 1NC) v. Phillipe Nover (12-6-1)
DraftKings Salaries: Barao ($11,300), Nover ($8,100)
Vegas Odds: Barao (-450), Nover (+360)

It's rare that I criticize the UFC's matchmaking, but for the life of me I cannot figure out how they decided on both the main event and co-main event of this card.

Barao hasn't been the same since his two losses to T.J. Dillashaw, and he is coming off a unanimous decision loss at the hands of Jeremy Stephens in May. Despite the recent shortcomings, this is a guy who was one of the best pound-for-pound fighters in the world just 24 months ago, and now he's facing a guy who is nothing more than roster depth. When he is at his best, Barao uses his elite takedown defense (97.4 percent) to set up his striking, which leads to him being able to exploit his biggest asset: his submission game. Barao has looked hesitant and indecisive of late. He is also taking far more punishment on the feet than he ever has in the past, all of which have led to his downward spiral.

Nover has had two runs in the UFC and they have both been monumental failures. A former finalist on Season 8 of The Ultimate Fighter, Nover went 0-3 in his first run with the company. After being released in 2010, he returned in May 2015 to earn a split-decision win over the great Yui Chul Nam. He has fought once since then, a split-decision loss to another stud in Zubaira Tukhugov. In case I'm not being clear enough here, the point of this exercise is that Nover isn't any good.

I understand that Barao is adjusting to a new weight class, and that the last thing the company wants is to have a former long-time World Champion go on a streak where he is 1-4 in his last five fights, but surely the UFC could have found someone better than Nover as an opponent for him. I'm concerned about Barao, but unless he has literally forgotten everything he has learned throughout his entire career, I don't see any way he loses this fight.

THE PICK: Barao

Heavyweight

Roy Nelson (22-13-0) v. Bigfoot Silva (19-9-0, 1NC)
DraftKings Salaries: Nelson ($11,500), Silva ($7,900)
Vegas Odds: Nelson (-450), Silva (+350)

This fight won't have any impact on the heavyweight title picture, but at least it makes plenty of sense from a booking standpoint. Nelson, at 40 years old, is 1-4 in his last five fights, and other than landing one huge punch, he pretty much has no chance of winning fights anymore. He's still marketable, however, and he has always possessed underrated takedown defense, so I understand why he is still fighting. I ultimately don't expect his career to end well, but thankfully, he is facing someone who is even closer to the finish line than he is in this fight.

Silva has gone from fighting for the UFC Heavyweight Championship in May 2013 to being the No. 15-ranked heavyweight a little more than three years later. Those who are regular readers of our MMA content here at RotoWire know that I think that ranking is generous. Going by the eye test, Bigfoot is finished. He is 1-5 (1NC) in his last seven fights and every single one of those losses have been first-round TKO/KO setbacks. If you hit Silva with a big shot, and that's all that Nelson throws, he crumbles.

The loser of this fight is probably going to be facing release if he doesn't step aside willingly. Both of these guys are finished, but Nelson is durable and Silva isn't. That makes this a pretty easy pick. I love Nelson as a DK play because he is going to throw bombs from the moment the opening bell rings, and Silva can't eat anything at this point in his career.

THE PICK: Nelson

Lightweight

Francisco Trinaldo (20-4-0) v. Paul Felder (12-2-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Trinaldo ($9,700), Felder ($9,700)
Vegas Odds: Trinaldo (-130), Felder (+110)

Consider this an early, under-the-radar contender for Fight of the Night. The 38-year-old Trinaldo has come out of nowhere to run off a six-fight winning streak. He hasn't lost in more than two years, and has defeated several quality opponents (Norman Parke, Chad Laprise, Ross Pearson, Yancy Medeiros) during his recent hot streak. A black belt in kickboxing and a brown belt in BJJ highlight the Brazilian's impressive all-around game. A former TUF: Brazil competitor and a UFC employee since June 2012, Trinaldo had a fairly non-descript career prior to his current hot streak.

Felder suffered the first two pro losses of his career back-to-back against Edson Barboza and Pearson in mid-2015, but he has since rebounded with wins over Daron Cruickshank and Josh Burkman. Felder is best known for his aggressive striking style, particularly his frequent use of leg kicks. A lifelong resident of Philadelphia, Felder is one of the more popular mid-level fighters on the UFC roster. It's highly unlikely that the 32-year-old Felder will ever impact the lightweight title picture, but his willingness to go for broke every single time he fights has endeared himself to fans.

Neither Felder nor Trinaldo have ever been stopped by strikes in their respective careers. My first thought when this fight was announced was that it would be an easier win for Felder, but upon closer examination, I'm not so sure. The Irish Dragon is still my pick to win, but the durability of both men means that there's a good chance this fight will go the distance and as a result, I don't think either is a great DK play.

THE PICK: Felder

Other Bouts


Middleweight

Thiago Santos (13-4-0) v. Eric Spicely (8-2-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Santos ($11,400), Spicely ($8,400)
Vegas Odds: Santos (-600), Spicely (+450)
THE PICK: Santos

Featherweight

Godofredo Pepey (13-4-0) v. Mike De La Torre (14-5-0, 1NC)
DraftKings Salaries: Pepey ($10,500), De La Torre ($8,900)
Vegas Odds: Pepey (-150), De La Torre (+130)
THE PICK: Pepey

Lightweight

Gilbert Burns (11-1-0) v. Michel Prazeres (20-2-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Burns ($9,800), Prazeres ($9,600)
Vegas Odds: Burns (-185), Prazeres (+160)
THE PICK: Burns

Bantamweight

Rani Yahya (22-8-0, 1NC) v. Michinori Tanaka (11-1-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Yahya ($9,300), Tanaka ($10,100)
Vegas Odds: Yahya (-140), Tanaka (+120)
THE PICK: Tanaka

Flyweight

Jussier Formiga (18-4-0) v. Dustin Ortiz (15-5-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Formiga ($9,200), Ortiz ($10,200)
Vegas Odds: Formiga (-200), Ortiz (+170)
THE PICK: Formiga

Welterweight

Erick Silva (18-7-0, 1NC) v. Luan Chagas (14-1-1)
DraftKings Salaries: Silva ($10,600), Chagas ($8,800)
Vegas Odds: Silva (+105), Chagas (-125)
THE PICK: Silva

Lightweight

Alan Patrick (13-1-0) v. Stevie Ray (19-5-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Patrick ($8,300), Ray ($11,100)
Vegas Odds: Patrick (+145), Ray (-165)
THE PICK: Ray

Welterweight

Vicente Luque (9-5-1) v. Hector Urbina (25-9-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Luque ($10,800), Urbina ($8,600)
Vegas Odds: Luque (-430), Urbina (+345)
THE PICK: Luque

Lightweight

Glaico Franca (14-4-0) v. Gregor Gillespie (7-0-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Franca ($10,400), Gillespie ($9,000)
Vegas Odds: Franca (-130), Gillespie (+110)
THE PICK: Gillespie

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Jon Litterine plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: DraftKings: JLitterine.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jon Litterine
Jon Litterine is RotoWire's lead MMA Writer and MMA Editor. He has covered numerous MMA events live. He's also RW's NHL Prospect Analyst. Jon has been writing for RotoWire since 2005. He is a graduate of U Mass-Lowell.
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