Drake's Takes: DFS Picks for UFC 278

Drake's Takes: DFS Picks for UFC 278

This article is part of our Drake's Takes series.

Daniel da Silva (11-3-0) v. Victor Altamirano (10-2-0)

Daniel da Silva - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 70" - Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling 
~ 11 finishes in 11 wins

Victor Altamirano - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 70" – Switch
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 10 wins

DFS Perspective: Both guys are exciting prospects still looking for their first UFC wins. If it goes to the judges, I expect Altamirano to win it with volume. Da Silva is more likely to win by finish, which is how I lean. Da Silva made a mistake in his last fight after a quick start, which cost him. I do not see him doing it again. Altamirano is likely to be decently owned for cash and GPP, but I like da Silva for both.                        

UFC 278 Pick: Da Silva

Aori Qileng (23-11-0) v. Jay Perrin (10-5-0)

Aori Qileng - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 69" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling 
~ 8 finishes in 22 wins

Jay Perrin - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 67" – Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 10 wins

DFS Perspective: This should be a close fight. I give Qileng an edge on the feet and Perrin an edge on the mat. I like Perrin's overall body of work better and like him to take this as a small dog. Both fighters are better left for GPP contests.                        

UFC 278 Pick: Perrin

Amir Albazi (14-1-0) v. Francisco Figueiredo (13-4-1, 1NC)

Amir Albazi - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 68" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling 
~ 12 finishes in 14 wins

Francisco Figueiredo - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 68" – Southpaw
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 13 wins

DFS Perspective: Albazi should be better everywhere and make quick work of Figueiredo. Figueiredo could make a splash and catch the chin, but I think that is the only way he wins this fight. Albazi makes an excellent play for cash and GPP.                        

UFC 278 Pick: Albazi

AJ Fletcher (9-1-0) v. Ange Loosa (8-3-0)

AJ Fletcher - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 67" - Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling 
~ 8 finishes in 9 wins

Ange Loosa - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 74" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 8 wins

DFS Perspective: I expect a fast-paced fight with the striking evenly matched between the two. Both guys have power, but Fletcher should have a significant edge on the mat. I do not see this fight seeing the scorecards, making it an excellent fight to target for GPP contests.                       

UFC 278 Pick: Fletcher

Miranda Maverick (12-4-0) v. Shanna Young (9-5-0)

Miranda Maverick - Height: 5'3" - Reach: 65" - Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling 
~ 7 finishes in 10 wins

Shanna Young - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 65" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus grappling
~ 5 finishes in 8 wins

DFS Perspective: Young does not have the skill set to keep up with Maverick and should get completely dominated in this matchup. Maverick is safe for all contests, even at her high price.

UFC 278 Pick: Maverick

Sean Woodson (9-1-0) v. Luis Saldana (16-7-0)

Sean Woodson - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 78" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling 
~ 4 finishes in 9 wins

Luis Saldana - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 73" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 14 finishes in 16 wins

DFS Perspective: I expect most of this fight to take place on the feet, where Woodson will hold a solid advantage in striking. If Saldana manages to take this fight to the mat, he could keep Woodson down long enough to steal a round or two, but I do not see it happening. Woodson is safe for cash, but without a finish, likely does not score high enough for GPP.                        

UFC 278 Pick: Woodson

Leonardo Santos (18-6-1) v. Jared Gordon (18-5-0)

Leonardo Santos - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 75" - Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling 
~ 12 finishes in 18 wins

Jared Gordon - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 68" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 8 finishes in 18 wins

DFS Perspective: Santos is 42 and clearly does not have much left in the tank. I expect Gordon to have his way with him until he records a knockout or piles up volume. Santos could surprise with a submission if he gets this to the mat, but it is unlikely. Gordon could be lower-owned in GPP and make a sneaky play in DFS.                        

UFC 278 Pick: Gordon

Marcin Tybura (22-7-0) v. Alexandr Romanov (16-0-0)

Marcin Tybura - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 78" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling 
~ 15 finishes in 22 wins

Alexandr Romanov - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 75" – Southpaw
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 15 finishes in 16 wins

DFS Perspective: Although Tybura is the toughest opponent so far for Romanov, I do not see him stopping the train in his tracks. Romanov has shown an elite skill set that should see him continue to rise through the ranks. I expect him to start fast and put on another clinic, earning another finish and crushing value for DFS. I love him for cash and GPP contests.                        

UFC 278 Pick: Romanov

Tyson Pedro (8-3-0) v. Harry Hunsucker (7-5-0)

Tyson Pedro - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 79" - Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus grappling 
~ 8 finishes in 8 wins

Harry Hunsucker - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 75" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus grappling
~ 7 finishes in 7 wins

DFS Perspective: Hunsucker is getting his third, and likely final, UFC fight after being finished in less than two minutes in each of his first two. He could surprise everyone and come out like the hurricane he is, throwing a bunch of volume and dropping Pedro early, but it is unlikely. Pedro is patient and should be able to catch Hunsucker as he comes in, dropping him early again. Pedro is expensive, and without a first-round knockout, he likely does not hit value. Still, he is one of the safest cash plays on the card.                         

UFC 278 Pick: Pedro

Wu Yanan (12-5-0) v. Lucie Pudilova (8-6-0)

Wu Yanan - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 66" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling 
~ 11 finishes in 13 wins

Lucie Pudilova - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 67" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 4 finishes in 13 wins

DFS Perspective: Yanan has lost three straight and could be facing the chopping block. Pudilova is making her return to the UFC after going 5-1 with another promotion. I expect this to stay on the feet for 15 minutes with both ladies throwing everything but the kitchen sink. However, Yanan could look for a takedown if she feels down during the round. This fight will be close, but I think Pudilova has the better technical striking and takes it. GPP is the only recommended play for either fighter.                        

UFC 278 Pick: Pudilova

Jose Aldo (31-7-0) v. Merab Dvalishvili (14-4-0)

Jose Aldo - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 70" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling 
~ 18 finishes in 31 wins

Merab Dvalishvili - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 68" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 4 finishes in 14 wins

DFS Perspective: Aldo is always live to record a knockout or outpoint any fighter on the feet, and he has some of the best takedown defense in the UFC. However, Dvalishvili has endless cardio and is constantly hunting for takedowns. I expect him to suffocate Aldo in the clinch and on the mat, grinding his way to another unreal DFS score. I love Dvalishvili for cash and GPP, but Aldo also makes a solid play for GPP.                        

UFC 278 Pick: Dvalishvili

Paulo Costa (13-2-0) v. Luke Rockhold (16-5-0)

Paulo Costa - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 72" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling 
~ 12 finishes in 13 wins

Luke Rockhold - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 77" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 14 finishes in 16 wins

DFS Perspective: Rockhold has not fought in three years, has not won in five and is now 37 with little to look forward to. His most significant advantage will be on the mat, but Costa has excellent takedown defense and insane power. Costa will be looking to redeem himself from his consecutive losses and record an early knockout. The fight should stay standing long enough for Costa to eventually find it, making him a solid play for cash and GPP.                        

UFC 278 Pick: Costa

Kamaru Usman (20-1-0) v. Leon Edwards (19-3-0, 1NC)

Kamaru Usman - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 76" - Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling 
~ 10 finishes in 20 wins

Leon Edwards - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 74" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 9 finishes in 19 wins

DFS Perspective: Edwards's last loss came against Usman back in 2015. While he has had an impressive string of wins to get back to Usman, I do not see this fight going much differently. Usman will have the advantage everywhere and just needs a smart game plan to retain his belt once again. Usman is one of the safest plays for cash and GPP contests on the slate.                        

UFC 278 Pick: Usman

 

For more MMA DFS-specific content, check out our DraftKings MMA preview, or play around with your favorite combinations of fighters on our DFS MMA Lineup Optimizer.

FANDUEL MMA SCORING

Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts

Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts

Scoring Notes

  • Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
  • A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.

DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING

Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts

Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)

Scoring Notes

  • Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
  • A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 pts.
  • Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
  • A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
  • A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Drake Burden plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: Dburdz, DraftKings: Dburdz.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Drake Burden
Drake is a proven DFS winner with multiple four-figure paydays under his belt. He took an interest to writing MMA during the pandemic and is active in various Discords and other social media communities.
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