This article is part of our Drake's Takes series.
Malcolm Gordon (13-5-0) v. Denys Bondar (16-3-0)
Fight Analysis: Bondar is making his UFC debut, sporting an impressive resume as a well-rounded fighter. He applies constant pressure looking for takedowns and then hunts for an early submission. Gordon finally looked comfortable in his previous fight, earning a tough unanimous decision after losing his first two fights. He is a strong grappler with decent takedown ability and will look early for ground and pound or a submission.
DFS Perspective: There are 24 finishes between these two, and 16 are via submission. I expect this to primarily play out on the mat, with Bondar being the early aggressor and working towards another early finish.
My Pick: Bondar
Jason Witt (19-7-0) v. Philip Rowe (8-3-0)
Fight Analysis: Witt enters this fight coming off a majority decision victory as a moderate underdog. He is a decent striker but thrives with takedowns, control time and finding submissions. Rowe let his hands go early and often in his previous fight, scoring a second knockout in three contests. He is a powerful volume striker and will look to dominate on the feet but has shown struggles against strong wrestlers.
DFS Perspective: Rowe wins and dominates this fight if it stays on the feet. He has a massive 10-inch reach advantage and should look to use it often. However, Witt has a path to victory much like his previous fight -- get takedowns and keep Rowe on his back.
My Pick: Witt
Jailton Almeida (14-2-0) v. Danilo Marques (11-3-0)
Fight Analysis: Fresh of a DWCS win, Almeida will be making his UFC debut and has looked highly impressive in his 14 wins. He is a powerful striker but excels on the mat with takedowns and submissions. Marques suffered his first loss in three fights in his previous contest, getting knocked out in the third round. He marches forward with the intent to bring the fight to the mat as often as possible to secure an early submission.
DFS Perspective: This is another fight that should primarily take place on the mat. Both guys are well versed with grappling, but I think the experience and cardio edge go to Marques, giving him a great chance to upset Almeida in his debut.
My Pick: Marques
Alexis Davis (20-11-0) v. Julija Stoliarenko (9-6-1)
Fight Analysis: Stoliarenko is coming off consecutive losses and needs a win to stay relevant. She is an armbar specialist and will constantly be on the hunt for an attempt at one. Davis has been on the side of defeat in four of her last five contests, all decided unanimously. She is a scrappy striker with high volume, good takedowns and great fight IQ.
DFS Perspective: Stoliarenko is a one-trick pony with her armbars. Could she score it here? Absolutely. Will she? Unlikely. Davis has lost four of five, but it was all good competition. I expect her to come in hungry and ragdoll Stoliarenko for 15 minutes.
My Pick: Davis
Chidi Njokuani (20-7-0, 1NC) v. Marc-Andre Barriault (13-4-0, 1NC)
Fight Analysis: Njokuani is making his UFC debut after a dominating knockout performance in the Contender Series. He is an excellent striker with immense power and a knack for big finishes, with 12 knockouts in his 20 wins. Barriault started his UFC tenure with three consecutive defeats but has since won two in a row, with a unanimous decision win being the most recent. He is a high-volume striker with tremendous forward pressure and a penchant for knockout wins with 9 in 13.
DFS Perspective: This fight should provide fireworks. Njokuani will have a six-inch reach advantage and will look to keep this at range. On the other hand, Barriault will be looking to pressure forward and keep Njokuani on his back foot. Given the experience difference and the fact that Njokuani has been finished six times to Barriault's zero, I give Barriault the advantage.
My Pick: Barriault
Hakeem Dawodu (12-2-1) v. Michael Trizano (10-1-0)
Fight Analysis: Dawodu had his five-fight win streak come to a halt with a tough loss in his previous fight, losing unanimously after 15 minutes. However, he is a strong technical striker with excellent striking defense and fight IQ. Trizano came through in a big way last time out, earning a unanimous decision win as a slight underdog. He applies constant forward pressure with slick technical striking and great footwork.
DFS Perspective: I expect this to be a 15-minutes striking match, with Dawodu coming out on top. He will have the advantage in volume and power and potentially find a kill shot with Trizano marching forward.
My Pick: Dawodu
Miles Johns (12-1-0) v. John Castaneda (18-5-0)
Fight Analysis: Johns finds himself in the driver's seat with two consecutive third-round knockout wins, both earning "Performance of the Night." He is an excellent striker with phenomenal striking and takedown defense and will occasionally mix in a takedown of his own to change things up. Castaneda last fought a year ago, earning a first-round knockout victory to push him to 1-1 in the UFC. He is a craft striker with good forward pressure and decent ground game.
DFS Perspective: I like Johns anywhere this fight goes. He has the better volume, power, footwork, and defense.
My Pick: Johns
Julian Erosa (26-10-0) v. Steven Peterson (19-9-0)
Fight Analysis: Erosa has won by finish in four of his last five contests, with the previous being a late, third-round D'Arce Choke. He is a lengthy, well-rounded fighter with good striking and an excellent ground game with takedowns and submissions. Peterson is coming off an impressive unanimous decision to win last time out, outpointing and controlling his opponent for 15 minutes. He is a good all-around fighter with crisp striking and fondness for finding the back and securing a choke.
DFS Perspective: Erosa will have about a four-inch reach advantage and will likely keep the fight at range until he wants to take it to the mat. Peterson will likely be pushing forward. Both guys like to scrap, and this should be an exciting fight. Erosa has the edge everywhere this goes, but there are 36 finishes between so two, so Peterson is not without a chance.
My Pick: Erosa
Tresean Gore (4-0-0) v. Bryan Battle (7-1-0)
Fight Analysis: Battle had a successful UFC debut after his TUF win, earning a second-round rear-naked choke victory. He has ever-improving striking but an excellent ground game with takedowns, control and submissions. Gore is making his UFC debut after a successful run on The Ultimate Fighter, including a knockout win in Round 2 in his last bout. He is a well-rounded beast with tremendous power, fantastic footwork and complimenting ground game.
DFS Perspective: This match was supposed to occur in August, but Gore had to pull out due to an injury. I am slightly torn on it, as Battle seemingly gets better in every fight and is as tough as nails. It is hard to know where Gore is after his knee injury, but I will assume he is in tip-top shape and ready to go. He will have a significant power advantage, and I expect him to use it early and often to a potential early finish. However, if he gets put on his back, he could run into some trouble.
My Pick: Gore
Sam Alvey (33-16-1, 1NC) v. Brendan Allen (17-4-0)
Fight Analysis: Alvey has gone 0-6-1 in his last seven fights, and you have to wonder when the plug will be pulled. He is a powerful striker with quick hands, tremendous pressure and solid takedown defense. Allen is stepping in on short notice and looking to get back into the win column after a massively disappointing knockout loss in his previous contest. He has decent and improved striking but is masterful on the mat with takedowns and submissions.
DFS Perspective: Allen is taking this fight on super short notice, which can always be a worry, but I believe he is hungry for a win after that bad loss in his last outing. He will have a massive advantage on the mat and needs to get it there early and often. Alvey will want to keep this on the feet, and if he does, he could very well earn the upset win and put Allen on a two-fight losing streak as a big favorite.
My Pick: Allen
Shavkat Rakhmonov (14-0-0) v. Carlston Harris (17-4-0)
Fight Analysis: Rakhmonov has been impressive in his two UFC fights, ending both by early submission with the most recent a rear-naked choke in the second round. He is a complete fighter, with crisp technical striking, power, and excellent takedowns and submissions. Harris has also been outstanding in his two UFC fights, finishing one by submission and the most recent by knockout. He is a solid technical striker with good power, excellent movement, striking defense, and ground game.
DFS Perspective: This is a close match on paper. Rakhmonov is 14-0, with all wins coming by finish. Harris is 17-4 and has ten finishes while being knocked out once. Both guys have been impressive, but there are more flaws to Harris's game that Rakhmonov can exploit. Rakhmonov will have the advantage anywhere this fight goes, but Harris makes a great dog play, given that this fight should end by early finish.
My Pick: Rakhmonov
Punahele Soriano (8-1-0) v. Nick Maximov (7-0-0)
Fight Analysis: Soriano, unfortunately, added his first professional loss to his record in his previous fight, losing unanimously after 15 minutes. However, he is a deadly striker with powerful hands, excellent striking and takedown defense, and solid grappling/wrestling. Maximov is making his second UFC fight after successfully earning a unanimous decision victory in his debut. He is a decent technical striker but prefers to get the fight to the mat early with solid takedowns and will look to control the round or hunt a submission.
DFS Perspective: Maximov's best route to winning here will be on the mat, but Soriano has excellent takedown defense and has a solid ground game as well. Soriano will also have a significant advantage on the feet, and an early knockout is not out of the question.
My Pick: Soriano
Jack Hermansson (22-6-0) v. Sean Strickland (24-3-0)
Fight Analysis: Hermansson is fresh off a dominant unanimous decision win last time out, moving him to 9-4 in the UFC. He is a solid, well-rounded fighter who applies constant pressure with slick striking and tremendous grappling. Strickland is riding a five-fight winning streak and is inching closer to that title fight. He is a high-volume, precise striker with a phenomenal counter, solid footwork and elite takedown defense.
DFS Perspective: I love this matchup. Hermansson will once again get an opportunity to show up in a big fight. He tends to fizzle out early against top fighters, and a loss here would further prove that. However, he will have an advantage on the mat if he can get it there. Strickland will have a significant edge on the feet and should be able to outpoint and counter his way to an easy win if this stays on the feet. I expect his takedown defense to be strong enough to avoid any huge swings in favor of Hermansson.
My Pick: Strickland
FANDUEL SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6pts
Takedown = 6pts
Takedown Defense = 3pts
Knockdown = 12pts
Submission Attempt = 5pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100pts
2nd Round Win = 75pts
3rd Round Win = 50pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25pts
Decision Win = 20pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are "Distance Strike" or "Clinch/Ground Strikes" that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial amount of time.
DRAFTKINGS SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.5 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
