MMA Barometer: The Return of Jon Jones

With the recent news of Conor McGregor being pulled from the main event of UFC 200 in July and the uncertainty of Georges St. Pierre returning from retirement, the stakes are even higher for the main event of UFC 197 on Saturday. Jon Jones has expressed interest in filling the main event in a rematch with Daniel Cormier. However, in order for that to happen it will be important for Jones to escape his fight with Ovince Saint Preux with minimal damage. This is important so Jones is not hindered by any medical suspensions. To do this, Jones may need to adjust his strategy for the fight.

Saint Preux is a southpaw and earlier this week on UFC Tonight Jones hinted that he had been working extensively on his southpaw striking and might stand southpaw the whole fight "just to prove a point." This is interesting, but may not be the best strategy if he is looking to parlay a victory against Saint Preux into a rematch with Cormier at UFC 200. This would unnecessarily open him up to eating shots from Saint Preux and potentially getting hurt. It would be smartest for Jones to stick to what he does best and use his range to feel out Saint Preux before taking him to the ground and finishing the fight there from a relatively safe position. Standing southpaw the whole fight is not the safest bet and not the best way to avoid injuries.

If McGregor and the UFC cannot come to terms on an agreement for the UFC 200 fight, and if Georges St. Pierre decides to stay retired, then it would be best for the UFC if Jones could come out unscathed in order to fill in the main event. Jones' best strategy for this would be to get the fight to the ground as quickly as possible and finish off Saint Preux early. Most fans will probably be rooting for that outcome as a UFC light heavyweight title clash would be a great alternative to either Conor McGregor or Georges St. Pierre in the main event at UFC 200.

RISING

Derrick Lewis
Winner in four of his last five fights, Lewis is poised to break into the top 10 of the UFC heavyweight division. Lewis has a 6-2 overall record in the Octagon, and every fight has ended by KO/TKO. He has extremely heavy hands and comes to brawl every fight. After his recent first-round knockout against former title contender and UFC veteran Gabriel Gonzaga, he finds himself the no. 13-ranked UFC heavyweight. Lewis is confident to go and strike with any heavyweight in the world, and he showed a great ability to get back to his feet after being taken down early by a decorated grappler such as Gonzaga. The big question will be whether Lewis has the cardio to survive and be effective if he faces a dominant wrestler and has to spend an extended amount of time on his back during a fight.

His next fight is unlikely to shed light on this possible hole, as Lewis called out Roy Nelson after his victory over Gonzaga. That would be a phenomenal fight, as both men are brawlers and it would undoubtedly end in a knockout. With a victory over Nelson, it is highly likely Lewis would end up in the top 10 of the heavyweight division. Hopefully the fight can come together and Lewis can continue along his track to a title shot.

Next Fight: TBA

Michael Chiesa
Chiesa has been on fire lately with submissions of two very highly regarded grapplers in his last two fights. He submitted both Jim Miller and Beneil Dariush in the second round, defeating both with his signature rear-naked choke. Chiesa has an uncanny ability to win almost any scramble and using the situation to take his opponents back. Chiesa is only a purple belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and it is amazing that he was able to lock in his rear-naked choke on two high level black belts in Miller and Dariush. Against Dariush, Chiesa did not even get the choke under the neck, but he was able to apply so much pressure to the jaw it made Dariush tap. Chiesa is now the ninth-ranked UFC lightweight, and he is probably only a couple of wins away from a title shot. After his last victory against Dariush he called out Tony Ferguson, which would be an interesting stylistic matchup as well as a good opportunity for Chiesa to fast-track himself to a title shot.

Next fight: TBA

Yair Rodriguez
Rodriguez is undefeated in his UFC career with three wins and no losses. He won The Ultimate Fighter: Latin America in the featherweight division. He is primarily a stand up fighter and has dynamic kicks that keep his opponent guessing. Each of Rodriguez's UFC fights have ended in decisions, and he will look to secure his first UFC finish this week at UFC 197: Jones vs. Saint Preux. At only 23 years old Rodriguez has a lot of room to grow as a mixed martial artist, and he will continue to add tools to his arsenal as he works with the Jackson-Winkeljohn camp in Albuquerque, New Mexico. His next opponent is a big test in Andre Fili, who is a member of Team Alpha Male. If Rodriguez is able to emerge victorious against Fili this weekend it will set him up for a fight with a top 15 opponent in the UFC featherweight division. Rodriguez is one of the rising stars in the UFC and his unique striking game make any of his fights crowd-pleasing performances which will expand his fan base.

Next Fight: Andre Fili, UFC 197: Jones vs. Saint Preux (April 23, 2016)

CHECK STATUS

Jon Jones
After a year-long layoff, arguably the best pound-for-pound fighter in the world finally makes his return to the Octagon. Jones never lost his UFC light heavyweight championship, as it was stripped when he ran into legal trouble. His return fight was supposed to be against current UFC light heavyweight champion Daniel Cormier, but Cormier suffered a leg injury and was forced to pull out of the fight. This leaves Jones with a better opportunity to shake off the rust and settle back in against an easier opponent like sixth-ranked UFC light heavyweight Saint Preux. It will be interesting to see if Jones picks up right where he left off as one of the most dominant fighters ever or if he seems to have lost a step in his year away from the sport.

Saint Preux is an athletic, dangerous fighter, but it is unlikely he is the same caliber as Jones. He will be dangerous early on, but Jones should be able to nullify Saint Pruex's unorthodox striking. Jones will most likely look spectacular as usual, and it would not be surprising if after a brief feeling-out period he took Saint Preux down and finished him in the first round. Jones is in check status because of the uncertainty after his year-long layoff and the various changes in his lifestyle, but with a good performance on Saturday, Jones should find his place atop the pound-for-pound list solidified once again.

Next Fight: Ovince Saint Preux, UFC 197: Jones vs. Saint Preux (April 23, 2016)

FALLING

Rashad Evans
Ever since his two-year absence from the Octagon due to injuries, Evans has not looked like the former champion UFC fans are used to seeing. He has put in two lackluster performances in his past two contests against Ryan Bader and Glover Teixeira. Prior to his knee injuries, Evans put in dominant performances against Dan Henderson and Chael Sonnen, but he now seems a step slower and unable to compete with the elite of the division. Against Bader, Evans had no answers for Bader's striking or wrestling en route to being outclassed in a unanimous decision. In his latest fight against Teixeira, he did not really have a chance to get in a rhythm as Teixeira finished him very early in the first round via brutal knockout. After these two performances, it is hard to imagine Evans being able to compete with the elite of the division, as he no longer possesses the power and explosiveness he once had, and he no longer has the ability to use his wrestling to impose his will on his opponent and control where the fight goes. And even though Teixeira has some of the most devastating power in the UFC light heavyweight division, it is worrisome that Evans chin failed him so early in the fight. Generally, once a fighter loses his chin he does not get it back, so that could be a bad sign of things to come. He has only been knocked out twice in his career, but it would be disconcerting to see Evans start to fall victim to KO/TKOs as his career winds down. Evans has stated he is contemplating retirement, and that might be the best option because it seems like his body is failing him.

Next Fight: TBA

Anthony Pettis
Even though he is only two fights removed from being UFC lightweight champion, Pettis finds himself at an important point in his career. He was on top of the division for two fights, but then was thoroughly outclassed by current UFC lightweight champion Rafael dos Anjos. Following that fight, and after a long absence due to injuries, he was outpointed by Eddie Alvarez. Those two fights exposed big holes in "Showtime's" game, as he was able to be bullied against the cage and held down when the fight went to the ground. Pettis is without question one of the best strikers in the division, but dos Anjos and Alvarez showed that if an opponent makes the fight dirty, Pettis is far less successful. Dos Anjos dominated Pettis in every facet of the game, but that was set up by his takedowns, which made Pettis more susceptible to the stand up of dos Anjos. Alvarez did not do much damage during their fight, but he out-positioned Pettis up against the fence on his way to a decision victory.

This next fight against Edson Barboza is vital for Pettis because if he drops three in a row his only option might be to drop down to the UFC featherweight division. The good news for Pettis is he could not ask for a better opponent to snap his losing streak. Barboza is a pure stand up fighter, so that plays to the strengths of Pettis. However, Barboza possesses some of the best kicks in MMA so it will be dangerous for Pettis the entire fight. If Pettis is going to snap his losing streak, this would be a good way to do it with a knockout against a decorated striker like Barboza. This is a good matchup for Pettis and one of the most important fights of his career; hopefully he can right the ship and get himself back into the title mix.

Next Fight: Edson Barboza, UFC 197: Jones vs. Saint Preux (April 23, 2016)