This article is part of our UFC Picks series.
The UFC heads to The Theater at Virgin Hotels for UFC Las Vegas on Saturday, March 11. In the main event, top-10 bantamweights collide, as Petr Yan takes on Merab Dvalishvili.
Below I'll share my favorite play, an underdog, a prop and a two-fighter parlay. All odds are via the DraftKings Sportsbook and are accurate as of the post date of this article. Sports betting is now live in Massachusetts in time for this event, so Bay State residents can get in on the action with the DraftKings Massachusetts Promo Code and get up to $200 in bonus bets at signup.
Weight Class: Bantamweight
Davey Grant (12-6) vs. Raphael Assuncao (27-9)
Raphael Assuncao kept his job on the UFC roster last time out with an upset win over Victor Henry but will now get a tougher matchup in Davey Grant. The Brit is a great striker who can pose a lot of problems with his power and durability, as we saw him go toe-to-toe with Marlon Vera and Adrian Yanez.
Assuncao, meanwhile, is still a tough out, but I do worry about his durability here, as we saw Ricky Simon and Cody Garbrandt both KO him. Grant, meanwhile, throws a ton of volume on the feet, as he lands 4.83 significant strikes per 15 minutes while also having the ability to wrestle.
Both men have good takedown defense and can keep it standing, but I like Grant to land the better shots and eventually KO Assuncao here.
UFC Las Vegas Best Bet: Davey Grant (-135)
Weight Class: Flyweight
Tyson Nam (21-12-1) vs. Bruno Silva (12-5-2)
Tyson Nam returned from a torn ACL back in August and didn't show any signs of wear-and-tear, as he knocked out Ode Osbourne in the first round. Nam has insane power at flyweight, as all of his UFC wins have come by KO, while Silva lost his first three fights -- with his debut getting overturned to a No Contest -- but has since won two straight by stoppage.
This fight should be a banger for however long it lasts, as both Nam and Silva like to stand and trade to try and find the KO punches. Even at 39 years old, Nam still is fast and has a great chin, as he rarely even gets rocked.
On the feet, both Nam and Silva have a negative striking differential, but at +170, the value is on Nam. I trust his chin more in a fight that could turn into a brawl.
UFC Las Vegas Best Bet: Tyson Nam (+170)
Weight Class: Middleweight
Sedriques Dumas (7-0) vs. Josh Fremd (9-4)
Sedriques Dumas makes his UFC debut as a prospect that has some hype behind him, as he is an all-action fighter. Fremd, meanwhile, took this fight on short notice, which I don't love for him, as he is 0-2 in the UFC and hasn't looked that impressive. He now faces Dumas, who is extremely dangerous.
Dumas has great wrestling and can get the fight to the mat when needed, but I expect him to have more success on the feet here. Against Gore, Fremd was tagged pretty well and eventually got caught in a choke. Dumas is also very hard to hit, and his power will be too much for Fremd. I expect the debutant to catch Fremd with a big shot and either get a TKO or a club-and-sub, but Dumas inside the distance is the way to go here.
UFC Las Vegas Best Bet: Sedriques Dumas ITD (-125)
Weight Classes: Featherweight & Bantamweight
Ricardo Ramos (16-4) vs. Austin Lingo (9-1)
Petr Yan (16-4) vs. Merab Dvalishvili (15-4)
For my parlay, I'm backing Ricardo Ramos and Petr Yan to get their hands raised Saturday night.
Ramos is set to take on Austin Lingo, who is a tough out for anyone due to his durability. The Fortis MMA product hasn't fought since August of 2021, however, and has since been dealing with injuries. Ramos, meanwhile, will have the advantage on the ground, as I expect the Brazilian to come out with a wrestling-heavy game plan to get his hand raised here against Lingo.
In the main event, I expect Yan to cruise to a win over Dvalishvili, and I wouldn't be surprised if it came by TKO. Yan is a very tough guy to get down and can even wrestle himself, while Dvalishvili's chin is a worry, as we saw Marlon Moraes nearly finish him. If he can't get Yan down, I like the Russian to just piece him up on the feet.
I do think Dvalishvili can have success early on, but as the fight goes on, Yan will take over and either win a clear-cut decision or a late TKO.
UFC Las Vegas Best Bet: Ricardo Ramos & Petr Yan parlay (-132)
UFC Las Vegas Best Bets
Here is a recap of my best bets for this weekend's UFC Las Vegas event:
- Davey Grant (-135)
- Tyson Nam (+170)
- Sedriques Dumas ITD (-125)
- Ricardo Ramos & Petr Yan parlay (-132)
For up-to-date information on the latest odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the UFC odds page on RotoWire.
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