MMA Best Bets: UFC Vegas 40

MMA Best Bets: UFC Vegas 40

This article is part of our UFC Picks series.

The UFC remains at the Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada for UFC Vegas 40 on Saturday, Oct. 16. In the main event, third-ranked bantamweight Aspen Ladd moves up to featherweight to battle Norma Dumont

In this series of articles, I'll share my favorite play, an underdog pick, a prop and a two-fighter parlay I like. All lines are taken from William Hill online sportsbook and are accurate as of the post date of this article.

Bruno Silva (20-6) vs. Andrew Sanchez (12-6)
Weight Class: Middleweight

This card has plenty of favorites over -200, but one favorite I like is Bruno Silva, whose number currently sits at just -150.

Silva made good on his UFC debut, as he knocked out Wellington Turman to extend his winning streak to five. During that time, he also picked up a KO win over Alexander Shlemenko who was the former Bellator middleweight champion. He has good KO power and always goes for the finish, but his takedown defense is a worry.

Sanchez, meanwhile, is coming off a KO loss to Makhmud Muradov, and before that, he knocked out Turman. He has changed camps for this fight as he is now at American Kickboxing Academy, but I don't think that will be enough. Sanchez gets hit too much for my liking, as he absorbs 5.05 significant strikes per minute. Silva, meanwhile, lands four significant strikes per minute.

Ultimately, I expect Silva to eventually catch Sanchez on the feet and get the KO win, and at -150, he's one of my favorite plays on the card.

The Play: Bruno Silva (-150)

Istela Nunes (7-1) vs. Ariane Carnelossi (13-2)
Weight Class: Strawweight

There aren't many underdogs on this card I like, but in the first fight of the night, I'm backing Istela Nunes to get the win.

Nunes hasn't fought since July of 2018 -- which is a concern -- but did fight some good competition in ONE Championship. She has a vicious head kick and is always looking for the finish on the feet. Ariane Carnelossi, meanwhile, had a great performance last time out to get back into the win column.

In Carnelossi's last fight and in her fight against Hill, however, she was there to be hit. If Nunes lands some big shots, she will find the finish. To me, this is a pick'em fight, so to get plus-money on Nunes makes it a bet for me.

The Play: Istela Nunes (+135)

L'udovit Klein (17-3) vs. Nate Landwehr (14-4)
Weight Class: Featherweight

This is a very tough matchup for Nate Landwehr, and not only do I like L'udovit Klein to win, but I like him to get the KO.

Klein has a great head kick and legit knockout power at featherweight, and he sets it up nicely to land flush, as evidenced by his KO win in his debut over Shane Young. He doesn't throw much volume, as he only lands 3.32 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.69. 

Landwehr gets hit a lot, however, as he likes getting in brawls -- he lands 7.02 significant strikes per minute but absorbs 7.67. Against Klein, he won't have much in a brawl, as Klein has more power, and I expect him to land the head kick and KO him in the first or second.

The Play: L'udovit Klein by KO/TKODQ/Submission (-110)

Julian Marquez (9-2) vs. Jordan Wright (12-1) & 
Manon Fiorot (7-1) vs. Mayra Bueno Silva (7-1-1)
Weight Class: Middleweight & women's flyweight

For my parlay, I'm backing Julian Marquez and Manon Fiorot to win on Saturday night.

Marquez gets a very favorable matchup against Wright, who I'm still not sold on. He hasn't fought anyone high-level, even in the UFC, and when he fought someone decent in Anthony Hernandez on the Contender Series, he was TKO'd in 40 seconds. Joaquin Buckley also knocked him out in the second round.

Marquez is well-rounded and will be able to avoid the power shots of Wright and eventually find hurt him. I see a win by TKO (ground-and-pound) or submission.

On the other leg, I'm backing Fiorot to beat Silva. Fiorot has proven to be violent on the feet, as in two fights, she is landing eight significant strikes per minute while only absorbing 1.98. Silva, meanwhile, lands 4.06 and absorbs 4.89.

Fiorot will be able to piece up Silva on the feet, and even on the ground, she has an advantage, as Silva struggles on the mat. I expect Fiorot to get the stoppage win to cash the parlay.

The Play: Marquez and Fiorot parlay (-104)

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Cole Shelton
Cole Shelton is a full-time sports writer focusing on MMA.
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