This article is part of our UFC Picks series.
The UFC heads back to the UFC Apex for UFC Vegas 50 which goes down on Saturday, March 12. In the main event, Thiago Santos takes on Magomed Ankalaev in a pivotal light heavyweight scrap.
In this series of articles, I'll share my favorite play, an underdog pick, a prop and a two-fighter parlay I like. All lines are taken from DraftKings online sportsbook and are accurate as of the post date of this article.
Azamat Murzakanov (10-0) vs. Tafon Nchukwi (6-1)
Weight Class: Light Heavyweight
In the first fight of the night, a fun light heavyweight bout goes down, as Azamat Murzakanov makes his UFC debut in a favorable matchup against Tafon Nchukwi.
Both Murazakanov and Nchukwi are known for their KO power, but it is the Russian who's the better striker. Murazakanov has fast hands, as he landed shots that Matheus Scheffel didn't see on the Contender Series to get the first-round KO. In that fight, he landed three significant strikes per minute and only absorbed 1.33.
Against Nchukwi, the striking defense will be the factor, as in three UFC fights and a Contender Series bouts, he absorbs 4.13 significant strikes per minute. I expect this to be a bit of a slugfest, but Murazakanov's striking defense will be the difference, as he'll avoid the shots and land a counter punch that puts Nchukwi down.
The Play: Azamat Murzakanov (-165)
Khalil Rountree (9-5) vs. Karl Roberson (9-4)
Weight Class: Light Heavyweight
I just don't understand the odds on this one, as Khalil Rountree has been the better UFC fighter, while Karl Roberson is on a two-fight skid and moving up in weight, yet is the betting favorite.
Although Roberson's Achilles heel has been grappling (all four of his losses have come by submission), on the feet he will be outmatched by Rountree. Rountree is coming off a violent TKO win over Modestas Bukauskas where he side kicked Bukauskas' knee and tore it so the fight had to be stopped.
There's no question Rountree has been inconsistent, but he looked strong in his last fight, and in his UFC career, he lands 3.24 significant strikes per minute while Roberson only lands 2.87. I don't think either will get knocked out, but Rountree throws more volume and is the better striker, so to me, he should be around a -135 favorite. Getting him at plus-money makes it an automatic play.
The Play: Khalil Rountree (+115)
Sodiq Yussuf (11-2) vs. Alex Caceres (19-12)
Weight Class: Featherweight
Sodiq Yusuff vs. Alex Caceres is a very intriguing matchup and one I like Yusuff to win by decision.
Caceres has been on a roll as of late, as he's on a five-fight winning streak. In the past two times he lost by stoppage, it was by submission, which is not a concern against Yusuff. The Nigerian is known for his power, but in five UFC fights, he has gone the distance in three of them, including two wins by decision.
In this one, Yusuff will just be able to out-volume Caceres and win a decision. It just comes down to Caceres being super durable and hard to put away, while Yusuff has proven he can just out-strike people for 15 minutes and has the cardio to go the distance.
The Play: Sodiq Yusuff by decision (+140)
Song Yadong (18-5-1) vs. Marlon Moraes (23-9-1) &
Magomed Ankalaev (16-1) vs. Thiago Santos (22-9)
Weight Class: Bantamweight & Light Heavyweight
For my parlay, I'm backing Yadong Song and Magomed Ankalaev to get their hands raised on Saturday night in the co-main and main events.
Yadong isn't known for his cardio, as he does tend to slow down in the third round, but Marlon Moraes has worse cardio than he does. If it gets past the first round, the Brazilian will be gassed, but I'm not even sure if it gets there. Moraes has taken a ton of damage in his past couple of fights, as he's been knocked out in three straight and four of his last five. Yadong is a great striker that will be able to land the heavy shots against the Brazilian and will likely be able to put him away in the first or second.
The other leg sees Ankalaev beat Thiago Santos in the main event. Ankalaev looks like the real deal, while Santos has slowed down since coming back from the dual-knee tears. He does not have the same power he had and doesn't seem to throw as much. Against Ankalaev, that will be a big problem, as the Russian is a great striker and has underrated wrestling. He could very well just take Santos down and hold him there to get a ground-and-pound TKO, but I expect him to just piece up the Brazilian on the feet and eventually find the stoppage.
The Play: Yadong & Ankalaev parlay (-161)
