This article is part of our UFC Picks series.
The UFC is at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada for Noche UFC for Mexican Independence Day on Saturday, Sept. 16. In the main event, Alexa Grasso looks to defend her belt for the first time, as she takes on Valentina Shevchenko in the rematch.
Below, I'll share my favorite play, an underdog, a prop and a two-fighter parlay. All odds are via the DraftKings Sportsbook and are accurate as of the post date of this article.
Weight Class: Featherweight
Fernando Padilla (15-4) vs. Kyle Nelson (14-5-1)
Noche UFC features a ton of favorites over -300, which makes it hard to give out a favorite, as I usually hate laying over -200 on a given fighter. In this spot, however, I like Fernando Padilla to beat Kyle Nelson at -250. To me, Padilla should be over -300.
Nelson picked up an upset win over Blake Bilder back in June to save his job, but to me, he still isn't UFC-caliber. His cardio is still a concern, especially if Padilla can push the pace against him.
On the feet, Padilla will have a five-inch reach advantage, which will be huge for the Mexico native here. Nelson, meanwhile, gets hits way too much, and against someone who throws a ton of volume and has power like Padilla, that isn't a recipe for success.
I expect Padilla to use his jab in the first round and in the second round, and when Nelson starts to fade, get a TKO (which, while not an official play this week, sits at roughly +165).
Noche UFC Best Bet: Fernando Padilla (-250)
Weight Class: Women's flyweight
Alexa Grasso (16-3) vs. Valentina Shevchenko (23-4)
Alexa Grasso pulled off a massive upset when she submitted Valentina Shevchenko in March to win the belt, and in the rematch, she's still a +140 underdog.
In the first fight, many will point to Grasso getting the submission and saying it was a fluke, but had that round ended, the fight would have been tied on the scorecards going into the final round.
Grasso had a lot of success with her jab, and showed she could out-grapple Shevchenko if she needed to. Also, Shevchenko's last couple of fights have not looked good, as she has struggled against Taila Santos and nearly lost, so I think she is on the decline.
Noche UFC Best Bet: Alexa Grasso (+140)
Weight Class: Welterweight
Kevin Holland (25-9) vs. Jack Della Maddalena (15-2)
The co-main event of Noche UFC is a fan-friendly welterweight fight that should be exciting from start to finish. However, I am in the minority in this fight, as I'm predicting this fight goes the distance.
Holland is pretty durable, as he was able to go five rounds with Derek Brunson and Marvin Vettori. When he lost by TKO to Stephen Thompson, it was at the end of the fourth round and largely because he broke his hand.
Della Maddalena, meanwhile, just showed in his last fight he can go 15 minutes and is also very durable.
I don't see either of them knocking each other out, and at +140, I'm surprised we are getting that good of good of odds to go the distance.
Noche UFC Best Bet: Kevin Holland and Jack Della Maddalena go the distance (+140)
Weight Classes: Flyweight & Middleweight
Edgar Chairez (10-5) vs. Daniel Lacerda (11-5)
Roman Kopylov (11-2) vs. Josh Fremd (11-4)
For my parlay, I'm backing Edgar Chairez and Roman Kopylov to get their hands raised Saturday night.
Chairez is making his UFC debut, and the Mexican gets a very favorable matchup against Daniel Lacerda. Lacerda is 0-4 in the UFC and has been finished in all four fights, but he's a very exciting fighter in the first five minutes of cardio he posesses, so the first round will be a bit of a concern.
Yet, I have enough confidence in Chairez's chin to believe he will be able to survive, and in the second round, he should be able to lock in a submission win.
The other leg is also the very next fight, as Roman Kopylov takes on Josh Fremd, who took this fight on short notice, and hasn't impressed in the UFC. Fremd is there to be hit, and in order to win this fight, he will need to outwrestle Kopylov. The Russian has a 90 percent takedown defense in the UFC, however, so he should be able to keep it standing.
On the feet, Kopylov will be too technical for Fremd and cruise to a decision win.
Noche UFC Best Bet: Edgar Chairez & Roman Kopylov parlay (-123)
Noche UFC Best Bets
Here is a recap of this weekend's Noche UFC best bets:
- Fernando Padilla (-250)
- Alexa Grasso (+140)
- Kevin Holland-Jack Della Maddalena goes the distance (+140)
- Edgar Chairez & Roman Kopylov parlay (-123)
For up-to-date information on the latest odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the UFC odds page on RotoWire.
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