It's Pay-Per-View time once again and we are squarely focused on the meat of the 13-fight slate of UFC 288, with four plus-money pays by stoppage. Our breakdowns this month include a jiujitsu ace who has made strides to round out her game and a powerful striker who will look to stay on his feet long enough to deliver a knockout blow. All our lines come from William Hill and are accurate to the post date of this article.
Weight class: Lightheavyweight
Kennedy Nzechukwu (11-3-0) vs. Devin Clark (14-7-0)
Nzechukwu has already won this kind of fight twice in recent memory, with both bouts ending in our desired method. Not only did he viciously knock out both men, but he did it while withstanding early charges from a better submission grappler in Danilo Marques and a better wrestler in Ion Cutelaba. I am prepared for our fighter to have to weather an early storm once again, but often it's Clark who gets hurt in bouts and needs to rally, which makes me optimistic that we may just roll to a cashed ticket.
To be fair, Clark has handled rangy opponents well in the past, but the African fighter has shown an uptick in aggression and general activity of late, outlanding opponents in four of his last five fights. We've seen "Brown Bear" get hurt by lunging his way into shots, and it will be difficult for him to accomplish this without running into the long arm of his opponent.
Nzechukwu has come a long way since doing just enough to keep Paul Craig in the fight until he found a submission. These days, the 30-year-old knows when to step on the gas against a vulnerable opponent, and has become quite the finisher in those situations. This is in sharp contrast to Clark, who has recorded one stoppage win in his 15-fight UFC tenure.
UFC 288 BET: Kennedy Nzechukwu wins via KO/TKO or disqualification: (+135)
Weight Class: Featherweight
Charles Jourdain (13-6-1) vs. Kron Gracie (5-1-0)
Jourdain hasn't exactly been a picture of consistency during his time in the UFC but has shown himself to be a powerful and technical range striker who can hold his own on the mat. The latter credential doesn't mean he is about to submit Gracie, but it could be just enough to keep himself safe in some of the wild scrambles created by Kron and get back to space, where he should hold a massive advantage.
I've never been comfortable betting on pure submission grapplers with no reliable way to get the fight to the ground. That's beginning to look like a wise decision when it comes to Mackenzie Dern, who has lost two of her last three fights sandwiched between a questionable split-decision victory against Tecia Torres. Meanwhile, Kron has logged just one takedown in four attempts in the Octagon. This forced him to go through an absolute war in his last bout against Cub Swanson, who is not as technical or powerful as someone like Jourdain.
This play may end up looking silly if Kron immediately secures a back-take from a clinch situation, but I trust Jourdain to keep his range and keep himself safe, which should result in a short night for one of the Gracie bunch.
UFC 288 BET: Charles Jourdain wins by KO/TKO or disqualification (+145)
Weight class: Straweight
Marina Rodriguez (16-2-2) vs. Virna Jandiroba (18-3-0)
Jandiroba is a fighter I can see making a serious move to title contention in the future. While she is primarily a submission grappler, attempts to improve her striking are evident, as she is light on her feet, mixes in feints, and throws 1-2 combinations. It's also worth noting that unlike Dern and Gracie, "Carcara" actually has a functional takedown game. All of these things should pay dividends in her matchup with Rodriguez.
Rodriguez is a lanky striker with some power, but she holds a pedestrian 65 percent takedown defense rate. While she has never been submitted in her professional MMA career, she was fortunate to hang onto consciousness during the two instances in which Dern grounded her during their fight in 2021. This should mean that the more accomplished and persistent wrestler will have several opportunities to put her in precarious positions.
Jandiroba should also be able to capitalize on Rodriguez's poor command of range, as she often leads herself into clinch situations by overswinging against her opponents. None of these things garauntee that Marina will tap out for the first time, but they are all reasons to take a shot on a line this juicy.
UFC 288 BET: Virna Jandiroba wins via submission (+440)
Weight Class: Middleweight
Ikram Aliskerov (13-1-0) vs. Phil Hawes (12-4-0)
Aliskerov is perhaps most famous for being on the receiving end of a brutal one-punch knockout from Khamzat Chimaev, but the Dagestani fighter is your typical strong wrestler from the Caucasus mountains with decent power in his hands. Unfortunately for him, he is facing a man in Hawes who has never been taken down in the UFC, and has shown blistering speed when he has been able to let his hands go.
Those who want to check out the striking improvements of Hawes need to look no further than his fight with Deron Winn. While Winn is almost comically undersized for the division, it was still nice to see Hawes sit behind his jab, throw in combination, and work in elbows when Winn tried to close the distance. Aliskerov has major defensive issues that aren't limited to not returning his jab to his chin, which led to the uppercut that sparked him out against Chimaev.
The book on Hawes when he first came into the organization was that he would begin to fade as the fight wore on, but interestingly, it was Kyle Daukaus who got tired when he tried to push the pace on "No Hype" during their bout in 2021. This means that Hawes should be able to stay in the face of Aliskerov until the finish materializes.
UFC 288 BET: Phil Hawes wins by KO/TKO or disqualification (+300)
UFC 288 Best Prop Bets
Here is a recap of my best UFC picks for this weekend's UFC 288 card:
- Kennedy Nzechukwu wins via KO/TKO or Disqualification (+135)
- Charles Jourdain wins via KO/TKO or Disqualification (+145)
- Virna Jandiroba wins via submission (+440)
- Phil Hawes wins via KO/TKO or disqualification (+300)
For up-to-date information on the latest odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the UFC odds page on RotoWire.
