This article is part of our UFC Picks series.
The UFC returns to Salt Lake City, Utah on Saturday, July 29 for UFC 291. In the main event, Dustin Poirier takes on Justin Gaethje in a highly-anticipated rematch for the vacant BMF belt.
Below, I'll share my favorite play, an underdog, a prop, and a two-fighter parlay. All odds are via the DraftKings Sportsbook and are accurate as of the post date of this article.
Weight Class: Welterweight
Stephen Thompson (17-6-1) vs. Michel Pereira (28-11)
For my betting favorite, I'm backing Stephen Thompson to beat Michel Pereira at UFC 291.
The way to beat Thompson as of late has been to wrestle him and hold him down, as we saw Gilbert Burns and Belal Muhammad do. However, strikers have struggled to beat him, as we saw Thompson beat Kevin Holland, and before the losses, he dispatched of both Geoff Neal and Vicente Luque.
Pereira, meanwhile, is a similar striker to Thompson, but he has more of a wild style. His cardio is a big concern, however, as we saw him gas out recently. At elevation in Utah, it is even more of a concern.
In this matchup, I expect Pereira to try and wrestle Thompson, but 'Wonderboy' should be able to keep it standing. On the feet, he is harder to hit, and I expect Thompson to take over in the second and third rounds to get the decision win.
UFC 291 Best Bet: Stephen Thompson (-150)
Weight Class: Flyweight
Vinicius Salvador (14-5) vs. C.J. Vergara (11-4-1)
There aren't many underdogs on Saturday's UFC 291 card I like, but Vinicius Salvador is one I can get behind.
Salvador lost a close decision in his debut, while C.J. Vergara is 2-2 in his UFC career, but I haven't been sold on him. Last time out, he beat Daniel Lacerda, who gasses out badly in his fights. Even in that matchup, Vergara almost got finished.
Both Salvador and Vergara throw a ton of volume, and both get hit quite a bit. However, I think Salvador is the better striker and also has the wrestling advantage.
To me, this is a coin-flip type of fight, so on a fight I believe is 50-50, I will always go with the underdog. When push comes to shove, I like Salvador's striking better than Vergara.
UFC 291 Best Bet: Vinicius Salvador (+125)
Weight Class: Lightweight
Dustin Poirier (29-7) vs. Justin Gaethje (24-4)
In the main event of UFC 291, Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje are set for their highly-anticipated rematch, and the BMF belt is up for grabs.
In the first fight, the two went at it right away, and it still made it to the fourth round. In the rematch, I like the fight to start round three, as I think it will be a slower-paced fight. Both men know if they lose, they likely won't get another crack at the lightweight title.
Additionally, both Poirier and Gaethje are super durable when it comes to striking. The way to beat them is by submission, or by an overwhelming amount of damage late in the fight.
In Poirier's last 10 fights, he has started the third round in seven -- including the Gaethje fight. In Gaethje's last five, three fights have started the third round.
UFC 291 Best Bet: Dustin Poirier & Justin Gaethje fight begins Round 3 (-165)
Weight Classes: Women's flyweight & Welterweight
Miranda Maverick (11-5) vs. Priscila Cachoeira (12-4)
Gabriel Bonfim (14-0) vs. Trevin Giles (16-4)
For my parlay, I'm backing Miranda Maverick and Gabriel Bonfim to get their hands raised Saturday at UFC 291.
Maverick had a disappointing fight last time out back in June and now steps on short notice against Priscila Cachoeira, which is a good matchup for her. Maverick is durable, which is the way Cachoeira wins her fights too, but I expect Maverick to be able to use her wrestling to get the win.
Maverick averages 2.24 takedowns per 15 minutes, while Cachoeira struggles to keep the fight standing. On the mat, she struggles to get back up, and I like Maverick to eventually get a submission.
For the other leg, I'm backing Gabriel Bonfim to beat Trevin Giles in the prelim headliner. Bonfim throws a ton of volume, but his wrestling is the real deal. Meanwhile, Giles' chin is still a concern for me, as we have seen him get knocked out a couple of times. His takedown defense will be tested here, as we saw Gerald Meerschaert and Zak Cummings tap him out. I expect Bonfim to get the fight to the mat and sink in a choke in the first or second round.
UFC 291 Best Bet: Miranda Maverick & Gabriel Bonfim parlay (-133)
UFC 291 Best Bets
Here is a recap of this weekend's UFC 291 best bets:
- Stephen Thompson (-150)
- Vinicius Salvador (+125)
- Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje fight to start Round 3 (-165)
- Miranda Maverick & Gabriel Bonfim parlay (-133)
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