This article is part of our UFC Picks series.
MMA returns to the UFC Apex in Las Vegas on Saturday, July 15 for UFC Vegas 77. The main event sees former champ Holly Holm take on Mayra Bueno Silva in the women's bantamweight division.
Below, I'll share my favorite play, an underdog, a prop, and a two-fighter parlay. All odds are via the DraftKings Sportsbook and are accurate as of the post date of this article.
Weight Class: Women's Bantamweight
Holly Holm (15-6) vs. Mayra Bueno Silva (10-2-1)
In the main event, I'm backing Holly Holm to get a win over Mayra Bueno Silva. I'll acknowledge Bueno Silva's talent, but I just don't think is a top-three fighter in this division like Holm is.
Bueno Silva is coming off two quality submission wins over Lina Lansberg and Stephanie Egger, but those fighters are nowhere near the caliber of Holm. Simply put, I think this is too much, too soon for Bueno Silva.
Holm is arguably the best striker at 135lbs, while Bueno Silva has a negative striking differential, showing she is there to be hit. Holm has good takedown defense too, so I expect her to keep it standing and piece up Bueno Silva to win a decision. A late TKO is also possible if the Brazilian's cardio can't go five rounds.
UFC Vegas 77 Best Bet: Holly Holm (-165)
Weight Class: Lightweight
Terrance McKinney (13-5) vs. Nazim Sadykhov (8-1)
Terrance McKinney is one of the most dangerous fighters in this division, so I am surprised he is the betting underdog here against Nazim Sadykhov.
McKinney is coming off a disappointing KO loss in January, but he told me he switched camps and is now working with Kevin Holland, which is a move I like. Sadykhov, meanwhile, is 1-0 in the UFC, but was down 20-18 to Evan Elder before the fight was stopped due to a cut.
I wouldn't be surprised if McKinney wrestled, but to me, I think his striking will be too much for Sadykhov. Look for him to land something big and get a first-round KO, but the safest play is to just take hi straight up.
UFC Vegas 77 Best Bet: Terrance McKinney (+115)
Weight Class: Women's featherweight
Norma Dumont (9-2) vs. Chelsea Chandler (5-1)
Norma Dumont and Chelsea Chandler are both super durable, and this is a fight I expect to go to the distance. However, the "fight to goes the distance" number is pretty steep at -200. To get better value, I'll take Dumont by decision at plus-money, as I expect her to get the win.
Chandler is 1-0 in the UFC, but she beat Julija Stoliarenko, so it is hard to take away much from that fight. Instead, I looked through her earlier fights and found she is extremely durable and hard to get out of there. However, she also is there to be hit.
Chandler and Dumont are similar fighters, but I think the Brazilian is the better wrestler and striker, and I expect her to edge out a decision in a competitive fight.
UFC Vegas 77 Best Bet: Norma Dumont by decision (+110)
Weight Classes: Lightweight & Strawweight
Evan Elder (7-2) vs. Genaro Valdez (10-2)
Viktoriia Dudakova (6-0) vs. Istela Nunes (6-4)
For my parlay, I'm taking Evan Elder and Viktoriia Dudakova to get their hands raised Saturday.
Elder is 0-2 in the UFC, but had he not endured a fight-stopping cut, he was well on his way to beating Nazim Sadykhov. Valdez, meanwhile, is 0-2 with the promotion. He was knocked out by Matt Frevola, in addition to losing to Natan Levy.
I just don't trust Valdez's striking defense and chin, as I expect Elder to land big shots and get a TKO win.
For the other leg, I'm taking UFC debutant Viktoriia Dudakova, who is 24 and looks to be the real deal. The UFC is high on the Russian, and they are giving her Istela Nunes -- an 0-3 fighter in the UFC who simply hasn't looked good.
Nunes was submitted by Ariane Carnelossi, dropped a decision to Sam Hughes and lost by TKO to Yazmin Jauregui. In this fight, I expect Dudakova to get Nunes down early and sink in a first-round submission, as I don't think Nunes will have much for Dudakova here.
UFC Vegas 77 Best Bets: Evan Elder & Viktoriia Dudakova (-103)
UFC Vegas 77 Best Bets
Here is the recap of this weekend's UFC Vegas 77 best bets:
- Holly Holm (-165)
- Terrance McKinney (+115)
- Norma Dumont by decision (+110)
- Evan Elder & Viktoriia Dudakova (-103)
For up-to-date information on the latest odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the UFC odds page on RotoWire.
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