UFC Vegas 109: MMA Betting Picks and Odds Insight
The UFC is back at the Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada, on Saturday, August 9, for UFC Vegas 109. The main event sees middleweight contenders throw down as Roman Dolidze takes on Anthony Hernandez.
Below, I'll share my UFC Vegas 109 predictions, including my favorite pick, an underdog, a prop and a two-fighter parlay. All UFC odds are via the DraftKings Sportsbook and are accurate as of the post date of this article.
Weight Class: Featherweight
Christian Rodriguez (12-3) vs Andre Fili (24-12)
UFC Vegas 109 is a very chalk-heavy card, as most of the fights see the favorites above -300. There just aren't many close fights on paper.
However, one moderate favorite I really like is Christian Rodriguez to beat Andre Fili. Rodriguez is 1-2 in his last three, and he's no longer considered that top-ranked prospect, but this is a good style matchup for him to get the win.
Fili is looking a bit past his prime, as I like Rodriguez to use his wrestling to control the fight and likely secure a clear-cut decision win, but a submission is also possible. Regardless, I really like Rodriguez to get his hand raised here.
UFC Vegas 109 Bet: Christian Rodriguez (-238)
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Weight Class: Strawweight
Angela Hill (18-14) vs Iasmin Lucindo (17-6)
With UFC Vegas 109 being such a chalk-heavy card, underdogs will be hard to come by that I like. One I do think has a shot is Angela Hill to beat Iasmin Lucindo.
Hill is a veteran who knows how to win fights, while Lucindo hasn't impressed me. Hill has good takedown defense and should be able to keep this fight standing, where she is the much better striker.
Hill is more active on the feet and should be able to land more volume. With a fight that likely will be close and go the distance, I'll take a shot on the more active striker at +164.
UFC Vegas 109 Bet: Angela Hill (+164)
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Weight Class: Middleweight
Eryk Anders (17-8) vs Christian Leroy Duncan (11-2)
For my prop at UFC Vegas 109, I'm taking Eryk Anders and Christian Leroy Duncan to go over 2.5 rounds.
Anders has two fights left in his career, and in the final stages of his UFC run, he has been more cautious. Anders told me he will look to clinch and wrestle here, which will help the over hit. He will want to try and get close to Duncan and not let him get off his powerful shots and drag this fight out.
Duncan, meanwhile, does accept bottom positions at times, as we saw against Gregory Rodrigues, so that should help the minutes go by. Meanwhile, Duncan has gone the distance in his last two fights, while Anders has gone over 2.5 rounds in two of his last three fights.
UFC Vegas 109 Bet: Eryk Anders & Christian Leroy Duncan over 2.5 rounds (-188)
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Weight Classes: Welterweight & Middleweight
Uros Medic (10-3) vs Gilbert Urbina (7-3)
Anthony Hernandez (10-2) vs Roman Dolidze (15-3)
For my parlay at UFC Vegas 109, I'm taking Uros Medic and Anthony Hernandez to get their hands raised at UFC Vegas 109.
Medic is set to take on Gilbert Urbina, who I don't believe is UFC-caliber. Medic is coming off a surprising 31-second knockout loss to Punahele Soriano in a fight I thought he would win, but this time around, he gets a massive step down in competition. Urbina has been finished in both of his UFC losses, and Medic should be able to land powerful shots to KO Urbina early here and get back into the win column.
To close out the parlay, I like Hernandez to beat Dolidze in the main event. Hernandez is a dark horse of the division, and I like him to use his gas tank to pressure Dolidze and outwork him. He likely get a finish in the championship rounds or a decision.
Dolidze will have to get Hernandez out early to win, but Dolidze isn't much of a finisher, so expect Hernandez to weather the early storm.
UFC Vegas 109 Bet: Uros Medic & Anthony Hernandez parlay (-169)
UFC Best Bets
Here is a recap of my best UFC picks for this weekend's UFC Vegas 109 card.
- Christian Rodriguez (-138)
- Angela Hill (+164)
- Eryk Anders-Christian Leroy Duncan over 2.5 rounds (-188)
- Uros Medic-Anthony Hernandez parlay (-169)
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