This article is part of our UFC Picks series.
The UFC heads to Paris, France on Saturday, Sept. 2 for the second straight year and the second time in promotional history. In the main event, Ciryl Gane takes on Sergey Spivac in a battle of ranked heavyweights.
Below, I'll share my favorite play, an underdog, a prop and a two-fighter parlay. All odds are via the DraftKings Sportsbook and are accurate as of the post date of this article.
Weight Class: Light heavyweight
Volkan Oezdemir (18-7) vs. Bogdan Guskov (14-2)
Volkan Oezdemir is back in action and is set to take on a short-notice replacement, Bogdan Guskov. I'm surprised that the Swiss fighter isn't over a -200 favorite here.
Oezdemir is a top-10 light heavyweight, and although he's 1-3 in his last four, his losses came to Nikita Krylov (in a fight he told me he broke his hand on the first punch), Magomed Ankalaev and Jiri Prochazka.
Oezdemir also made the move to live and train full-time in Sweden and works with Khamzat Chimaev daily, which can only be a big help. Guskov does have KO power, but the level of competition isn't there, and his cardio is a concern.
I expect Guskov to come out guns blazing in the first round and gas out, leaving the door open for Oezdemir to get the second-round TKO, as he is the better striker.
UFC Paris Best Bet: Volkan Oezdemir (-185)
Weight Class: Lightweight
Thiago Moises (17-6) vs. Benoit Saint-Denis (11-1)
For my underdog pick at UFC Paris, I'm backing Thiago Moises. To me, this is a pick'em fight.
Benoit Saint-Denis is coming off a good win, as he upset Ismael Bonfim. Because of that, I think recency bias is playing a key role, as he went from a +250 underdog and now is the favorite against Moises, who has been a ranked lightweight before.
Moises is on a two-fight losing skid, though he hasn't necessarily looked bad, and he should have the grappling advantage here. On the feet, Saint-Denis is the better striker, but he is also there to be hit. If Moises can get the fight to the ground, though, he should be able to have a lot of success.
I also worry about Saint-Denis' cardio, as Moises has proven he can go late in the fight, so I like Moises to edge out a decision here.
UFC Paris Best Bet: Thiago Moises (+130)
Weight Class: Women's flyweight
Manon Fiorot (10-1) vs. Rose Namajunas (11-5)
In the co-main event of UFC Paris, Rose Namajunas moves up to flyweight to take on Manon Fiorot.
When the fight was first made, I thought Namajunas could win it. She is one of the best fighters in the world despite a terrible fight last time out against Carla Esparza. I have some concerns about moving up in weight, but Fiorot is not the biggest flyweight and is mostly a striker, so the weight and size won't likely play a huge role.
Ultimately, instead of taking a winner, I like the fight to go the distance at only -175. To me, this should be in the high -200's, as neither are finishers and both are durable. In Namajunas' last five fights, three have gone the distance, while Fiorot has gone the distance in her last three fights.
UFC Paris Best Bet: Manon Fiorot vs. Rose Namajunas fight goes the distance (-175)
Weight Classes: Catchweight & Bantamweight
Jacqueline Cavalcanti (5-1) vs. Zarah Fairn (6-5)
Farid Basharat (10-0) vs. Kleydson Rodrigues (8-2)
For my parlay, I'm taking Jacqueline Cavalcanti and Farid Basharat to win at UFC Paris on Saturday.
Cavalcanti is making her UFC debut and fighting Zarah Fairn at a 140lbs catchweight, and this is a spot I love Cavalcanti in, as Fairn is not UFC-caliber. Fairn is 0-3 in the UFC and hasn't looked good at all, while Cavalcanti is the LFA champ and has proven to be able to go 25 minutes. She can also finish fights.
Fairn has a negative striking differential, as she is there to be hit, in addition to note struggles with her grappling. I expect Cavalcanti to dominate and finish Fairn in the first or second round.
In the other leg, I'm backing Farid Basharat to remain undefeated against Kleydson Rodrigues, who's moving up to 135lbs. Rodrigues had some weight issues at flyweight and has slowed down in fights, while Basharat is a grinder and has the ability to drag this fight out.
I expect Basharat to use his wrestling to control Rodrigues, as he should be bigger and stronger and eventually get a late stoppage when Rodrigues is tired.
UFC Paris Best Bets: Jacqueline Cavalcanti & Farid Basharat (-154)
UFC Paris Best Bets
Here is a recap of this weekend's UFC Paris best bets:
- Volkan Oezdemir (-185)
- Thiago Moises (+130)
- Manon Fiorot & Rose Namajunas goes the distance (-175)
- Jacqueline Cavalcanti & Farid Basharat (-154)
For up-to-date information on the latest odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the UFC odds page on RotoWire.
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