This article is part of our UFC Picks series.
The UFC is set for its first event of 2024 on Saturday, January 13. In the main event, top-10 light heavyweights collide as Magomed Ankalaev takes on Johnny Walker.
Below, I'll share my favorite play, an underdog, a prop, and a two-fighter parlay. All odds are via the DraftKings Sportsbook and are accurate as of the post date of this article.
Weight Class: Lightweight
Jim Miller (36-17) vs. Gabriel Benitez (23-10)
Jim Miller and Gabriel Benitez were set to fight last February, but Benitez withdrew. Now nearly a year later, the two will finally square off.
Miller is coming off a 23-second knockout win, while Benitez hasn't fought since August of 2022. The knock on Benitez has been his cardio, and although Miller isn't one to push the pace and go 15 minutes, he still has better cardio than "Moggly".
I expect Miller to use his wrestling to get Benitez down to the mat, as the American will have a massive advantage on the ground. Benitez's takedown defense is just 58 percent, as Miller should be able to get him down and control him, which will lead to a submission or ground-and-pound TKO win.
UFC Vegas 84 Best Bet: Jim Miller (-130)
Weight Class: Middleweight
Phil Hawes (12-5) vs Brunno Ferreira (10-1)
Phil Hawes is ultra-talented with his striking and wrestling, but the knock on him is his chin, as it usually only takes one good shot to put high lights out. That is certainly a concern here, but he still is the better fighter than Ferreira.
Hawes should be able to out-grapple Ferreira and look to avoid standing with the Brazilian, who does have KO power. If he can grind the first round out, it should make Ferreria tired, which will effectively limit his power.
This fight will be sketchy, as even if Phil Hawes is winning the fight, his chin can be touched at any time. But, I still like Hawes to avoid the power shot in the first round and grind out a win here as the underdog.
UFC Vegas 84 Best Bet: Phil Hawes (+110)
Weight Class: Flyweight
Manel Kape (19-6) vs. Matheus Nicolau (19-3-1)
Manel Kape vs. Matheus Nicolau should be a very exciting fight for as long it lasts, but in this one, I like Kape to get the win and do so by knockout.
Kape and Nicolau fought back in May of 2021, and it was Nicolau who won by a controversial split decision. Since then, Kape has found his footing in the UFC and has been showing off his power. Nicolau, meanwhile, is coming off a KO loss to Brandon Royval, and both his losses in the UFC are by knockout.
Kape is active on the feet, as he averages 5.12 significant strikes per minute, and throws most of his punches with a ton of power. I expect Kape to be more aggressive in the rematch and catch Nicolau to win by KO.
UFC Vegas 84 Best Bets: Manel Kape by KO/TKO/DQ (+165)
Weight Class: Bantamweight
Farid Basharat (11-0) vs. Taylor Lapilus (19-3)
Marcus McGhee (8-1) vs. Gaston Bolanos (7-3)
For my parlay at UFC Vegas 84, I'm taking Farid Basharat and Marcus McGhee to get their hands raised Saturday.
Basharat looks like the real deal, as he's active on the feet, averaging 5.2 significant strikes per minute, while only absorbing 2.34. He also is a solid wrestler, as he averages 3.5 takedowns per 15 minutes. While Lapilus does have solid takedown defense at 81 percent, Basharat is relentless with his wrestling. Basharat's pressure, on the feet and with his wrestling, should be too much for Lapilus, which will allow the former to grind out a decision win.
In the other leg, I'm backing McGhee to defeat Gaston Bolanos to improve to 3-0 in the UFC. McGhee is a main training partner of Sean O'Malley and Mario Bautista, among others, and has looked solid in the UFC. Bolanos, meanwhile, was a surprise signing by the UFC, as he was just 1-2 in his last three fights in Bellator.
Bolanos is an exciting striker, but McGhee is the more technical striker and should be able to piece him up. McGhee will also have the grappling advantage, as it wouldn't be a surprise to see him have a wrestling-heavy game plan. Those factors will ultimately lead to a stoppage win.
UFC Vegas 84 Best Bet: Farid Basharat & Marcus McGhee (-111)
UFC Vegas 84 Best Bets
Here is a recap of this weekend's UFC Vegas 84 best bets:
- Jim Miller (-130)
- Phil Hawes (+110)
- Manel Kape by KO/TKO/DQ (+165)
- Farid Basharat & Marcus McGhee (-111)
For up-to-date information on the latest odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the UFC odds page on RotoWire.
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