Good Sam 500
Location: Avondale, Ariz.
Course: Phoenix International Raceway
Format: 1-mile oval
Laps: 312
Race Preview
After two consecutive races on 1.5-mile ovals the NASCAR Sprint Cup series takes on the unique challenge of Phoenix International Raceway in the Good Sam 500 this week. This is the second leg of the Sprint Cup's "West Coast Swing" of three races. While Hendrick Motorsports and Jimmie Johnson were strong in both Atlanta and Las Vegas, the Penske Racing Fords rose to challenge in Las Vegas last week. It was Brad Keselowski who pieced together the fastest car in the closing laps to pass an ailing Kyle Busch in the final miles to take the win. However, fantasy players shouldn't count out Joe Gibbs Racing. Their drivers remain significant threats each week, and should be expected to be right in the mix this week in Phoenix.
Key Stats at Phoenix International Raceway
- Number of previous races: 39
- Winners from pole: 4
- Winners from top-5 starters: 14
- Winners from top-10 starters: 19
- Winners from 21st or lower starters: 3
- Fastest race: 118.132 mph
Last 10 Phoenix Winners
2015 fall - Dale Earnhardt Jr.
2015 spring - Kevin Harvick
2014 fall - Kevin Harvick
2014 spring - Kevin Harvick
2013 fall - Kevin Harvick
2013 spring - Carl Edwards
2012 fall - Kevin Harvick
2012 spring - Denny Hamlin
2011 fall - Kasey Kahne
2011 spring - Jeff Gordon
Phoenix has been the playground of Kevin Harvick in recent years. The Stewart Haas Racing driver racked up seven career wins at the track, and has led more than 100 laps in every race here for the past two years. The unique layout functions more like a road course than the ovals we've visited the first three weeks of the season, and Harvick seems able to set up his car perfectly for that challenge. Teams need to compromise their chassis setup for certain corners to find the fastest total lap time around this different layout. The slippery desert track allows for plenty of passing and can be quite harsh on brakes. Preservation of equipment is a virtue for drivers wanting to score a win here, and track position often can be a determining factor.
RACE DAY SCORE VALUE PICKS (Based on Standard $60K Salary Cap)
Tier 1 Values
Kevin Harvick - $12,000
Jimmie Johnson - $11,100
Denny Hamlin - $11,000
Carl Edwards - $11,000
Tier 2 Values
Kurt Busch - $10,900
Matt Kenseth - $10,800
Martin Truex Jr. - $10,600
Jamie McMurray - $10,400
Tier 3 Values
Aric Almirola - $9,900
Greg Biffle - $9,800
Austin Dillon - $9,400
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. - $9,000
Long-Shot Values
Chase Elliott - $9,500
Ty Dillon - $8,800
Casey Mears - $8,700
David Ragan - $8,400
MY PICKS THIS WEEK
Lower-Risk Cash Game Lineup ($60K Salary Cap)
Kevin Harvick - $12,000
Joey Logano - $11,400
Jamie McMurray - $10,400
Kasey Kahne - $10,000
David Ragan - $8,400
Landon Cassill - $7,500
Two of the protagonists from last week's race head the lower-risk lineup option in Phoenix. Harvick is arguably the best driver in history at Phoenix, and he's the most expensive driver this week as a result. Logano ranks inside the top 10 drivers at the track when you run his statistics through Race Day Score's scoring scheme, and that earns him the second spot in this lineup. While McMurray has yet to score a top-10 finish this season, he finished second to Harvick in this race last season. The wait for his first top finish of the year may end this week. Kahne turned in a confidence-building top-10 last week in Las Vegas, and he won at this track in 2011. Lastly, Ragan and Cassill give fantasy players two drivers who have shown decent pace early in the season so far, but with lower prices to free up some salary room for the Harvicks and Loganos of the world.
Higher-Risk Tournament Lineup ($60K Salary Cap)
Brad Keselowski - $11,400
Jimmie Johnson - $11,100
Ryan Newman - $11,000
Carl Edwards - $11,000
Trevor Bayne - $8,100
Michael Annett - $7,100
By virtue of Penske's resurgence last week in Las Vegas, Keselowski appears poised to extend his good form to another top finish this week in Phoenix. He has only finished outside of the top 10 here once in the last eight races and that was an 11th-place finish. It's time for him to scoop his first winner's trophy at the track. Johnson has been exceptionally competitive in 2016. He has back-to-back top-five finishes heading into this week, where he has four career victories. Qualifying may be Newman's strong suit, but his Phoenix finishes have recently centered on top-10s, and he won here in 2010. With two Phoenix wins on his resume Edwards is another driver fantasy owners should consider, while Bayne landed a top-20 last week in Las Vegas despite starting 28th. Michael Annett rounds out the higher-risk lineup by virtue of his ability to finish higher than where he starts, which he has done in two of the first three races of the season.
