Premier League Golden Boot Watch

Premier League Golden Boot Watch

This article is part of our Betting on Soccer series.

We're a little more than a week away from the start of the 2020/21 Premier League season, which means we're well into digesting all of the futures odds associated with the league. One of my favorites to analyze is the winner of the Golden Boot, given to the league's most prolific goal scorer every season.

Matt Birnbach and I discussed some of our favorite Golden Boot bets on last week's RotoWire Soccer Podcast, which mostly touched on the longer-shot possibilities. The season-long player projections on RotoWire currently have Raheem Sterling and Jamie Vardy as the two highest goal-scoring players, though they only rank sixth and seventh, respectively, according to the three on-shore books reviewed (FanDuel hasn't posted any player futures yet).

Vardy won the Golden Boot last season by scoring 23 goals in 35 games (34 starts), finishing one ahead of Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and Danny Ings. Aubameyang was the 2018/19 winner, sharing the award with Mohamed Salah and Sadio Mane with 22 goals apiece. Vardy's win was a bit of a surprise, not because he isn't a solid goal scorer (he had 18 in the 2018/19 season and 20 the prior term when Salah topped the chart with 32, followed by Harry Kane with 29) but because it was the first time a player from a non-top-six side led the league since Kevin Phillips scored 30 goals for Sunderland during the 1999-2000 season.

SeasonPlayerNationalityTeamGoalsGames
1999–2000Kevin PhillipsEnglandSunderland3036
2000–01Jimmy Floyd HasselbainkNetherlandsChelsea2335
2001–02Thierry HenryFranceArsenal§2433
2002–03Ruud van NistelrooyNetherlandsManchester United2534
2003–04Thierry HenryFranceArsenal§3037
2004–05Thierry HenryFranceArsenal2532
2005–06Thierry HenryFranceArsenal2732
2006–07Didier DrogbaIvory CoastChelsea2036
2007–08Cristiano RonaldoPortugalManchester United§3134
2008–09Nicolas AnelkaFranceChelsea1936
2009–10Didier DrogbaIvory CoastChelsea2932
2010–11Carlos TevezArgentinaManchester City2031
2010–11Dimitar BerbatovBulgariaManchester United2032
2011–12Robin van PersieNetherlandsArsenal3038
2012–13Robin van PersieNetherlandsManchester United2638
2013–14Luis SuarezUruguayLiverpool3133
2014–15Sergio AgueroArgentinaManchester City2633
2015–16Harry KaneEnglandTottenham Hotspur2538
2016–17Harry KaneEnglandTottenham Hotspur2930
2017–18Mohamed SalahEgyptLiverpool3236
2018–19Pierre-Emerick AubameyangGabonArsenal2236
2018–19Sadio ManeSenegalLiverpool2236
2018–19Mohamed SalahEgyptLiverpool2238
2019–20Jamie VardyEnglandLeicester City2335

Unsurprisingly, the players with some of the best Golden Boot odds for the upcoming season play for top-six sides, with Vardy crashing the party. Joining Vardy among the top 20 are Ings and Wolverhampton's Raul Jimenez, but otherwise we're looking at players from Liverpool, Manchester City, Manchester United, Chelsea, Arsenal and Tottenham as the most likely winners. We'll be tracking the odds and goal totals this season to see if any values open up, or if we see a big jump from anyone if they come out hot in the new season.

We also see some pretty significant differences at three of the online U.S. books for certain players, such as Manchester United's Bruno Fernandes at +1600 on DraftKings but +2000 at betMGM and +2500 on bet365. What's further interesting about those numbers is that Anthony Martial is +2000 at all three books, while Marcus Rashford is +1800 at betMGM but +2000 at the other two. Comparing the three, DraftKings is giving Bruno the best chance to win the Golden Boot, but he's behind the two at bet365 and sandwiched at betMGM.

We see another big difference at Chelsea, where Christian Pulisic and Hakim Ziyech are both +5000 at DraftKings but Pulisic is ahead at betMGM (+4000 v. +5000) but behind at bet 365 (+6600 v. +5000). Then again, they're both firmly behind teammate Timo Werner, who is +1000 at two of the books and +900 at the other.

Going deeper on the list increases some of the differences, such as Michail Antonio +6600 at betMGM but +15000 at bet365. Realistically, it doesn't really matter because he's so unlikely to finish as the league's highest scorer, even with the second-highest xG per 90 after the restart (trailing Sterling), according to StatsBomb. But if you're really interested in long shots, just make sure you shop around for the best odds because why try to turn your $100 on a Jack Grealish Golden Boot into $10,000 on DraftKings when you could turn it into $25,000 on bet365?

  

9/2/2020

PlayerTeambetMGMDraftKingsbet365
Mohamed SalahLIV+500+600+500
Harry KaneTOT+550+500+550
Pierre-Emerick AubameyangARS+550+500+600
Sergio AgueroMCI+700+600+700
Timo WernerCHE+1000+1000+900
Raheem SterlingMCI+1100+1100+1000
Jamie VardyLEI+1400+1400+1400
Sadio ManeLIV+1400+1400+1400
Marcus RashfordMUN+1800+2000+2000
Anthony MartialMUN+2000+2000+2000
Danny IngsSOU+2000+2000+2000
Gabriel JesusMCI+2000+1600+2000
Bruno FernandesMUN+2000+1600+2500
Raul JimenezWLV+2500+2500+3300
Alexandre LacazetteARS+3300+4000+4000
Mason GreenwoodMUN+3300+2500+3300
Tammy AbrahamCHE+3300-+3300
Christian PulisicCHE+4000+5000+6600
Roberto FirminoLIV+4000+3300+5000
Hakim ZiyechCHE+5000+5000+5000
Son Heung-MinTOT+5000-+8000
Aleksandar MitrovicFUL+6600-+10000
Dominic Calvert-LewinEVE+6600+6600+8000
Kevin De BruyneMCI+6600+5000+8000
Michail AntonioWHU+6600+8000+15000
RicharlisonEVE+6600+6600+8000
Chris WoodBUR+8000+8000+8000
Nicolas PepeARS+8000+15000+6600
Odion IghaloMUN+8000-+6600
Olivier GiroudCHE+8000+6600+10000
Patrick BamfordLEE+8000+10000+15000
Phil FodenMCI+8000+10000+25000
Riyad MahrezMCI+8000+8000+10000
Ashley BarnesBUR+10000+15000+20000
Diogo JotaWLV+10000+15000+15000
Divock OrigiLIV+10000--
Jack GrealishAVL+10000+10000+25000
Kelechi IheanachoLEI+10000+15000+15000
Neal MaupayBHA+10000+10000+15000
Sebastien HallerWHU+10000+10000+10000
Wilfried ZahaCRY+10000+15000+25000
Jay RodriguezBUR+12500+20000-
Lucas MouraTOT+12500-+50000
Bernardo SilvaMCI+15000+20000+15000
Callum Hudson-OdoiCHE+15000-+15000
Dwight GayleNEW+15000+20000+50000
Edward NketiahARS+15000+10000+8000
James MaddisonLEI+15000-+15000
Jarrod BowenWHU+15000+20000+20000
Moise KeanEVE+15000+15000+15000
Oliver McBurnieSHU+15000+20000+25000
Paul PogbaMUN+15000+20000+10000
Steven BergwijnTOT+15000-+15000
Wesley MoraesAVL+15000-+50000
WillianARS+15000--
Adama TraoreWLV+20000-+50000
Charlie AustinWBA+20000--
Che AdamsSOU+20000+20000+20000
Dele AlliTOT+20000+20000+15000
JoelintonNEW+20000+20000+25000
Jordan AyewCRY+20000+20000+50000
Mason MountCHE+20000--
Miguel AlmironNEW+20000+25000-
Aaron ConnollyBHA+25000--
Christian BentekeCRY+25000-+50000
Erik LamelaTOT+25000--
Leandro TrossardBHA+25000+25000-
Luka MilivojevicCRY+25000--
Shane LongSOU+25000--
Takumi MinaminoLIV+25000-+50000
Allan Saint-MaximinNEW-+25000-
David McGoldrickSHU-+25000-
Gabriel MartinelliARS--+20000
TrezeguetAVL--+50000
Pablo HernandezLEE--+50000
Harvey BarnesLEI--+25000
Daniel PodenceWLV--+50000

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Andrew M. Laird
Andrew M. Laird, the 2017 and 2018 FSWA Soccer Writer of the Year, is RotoWire's Head of DFS Content and Senior Soccer Editor. He is an eight-time FSWA award finalist, including twice for Football Writer of the Year.
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