This article is part of our FPL Bargain Bin series.
It happens every year, and last weekend was no different. Leicester City captivated the league, and possibly the world, with their stunning 5-3 victory over Manchester United. It was certainly amazing and fun to watch as the newly-promoted Foxes embarrassed one of the most polarizing clubs in the league. But let's not be to quick to overreact.
We saw a similar narrative last season when a newly-promoted club scored multiple goals and pulled off a remarkable upset over a Manchester side. That time it was Cardiff City stunning Manchester City 3-2. If we go back through the past three seasons, we can find examples where a newly-promoted club scored three or more goals in a victory early in the season. Each time, those clubs ended the season with below-average scoring totals while failing to deliver multiple goals in roughly 74 percent of their matches.
Sure, Leicester City was the second most prolific scoring team in the Championship last season. But Cardiff City finished third in scoring the year they earned promotion and finished with a measly 0.88 goals per match (including their three goals against Manchester City) before being sent back down the very next year. I'm not hear to suggest Leicester City will be demoted following this season; I'm here to make suggestions to help you with your fantasy squad. The suggestion now is do not be swayed by a one-week result.
Going back to the 2011-12 season, the average of the highest goal scorer for each of the newly promoted clubs comes to just 9.4 goals during the season. Leonardo Ulloa is the "hot item" of the week after scoring twice against Manchester City, but beware of some red flags. While he is already half way to double digit goals for the season, know that he is scoring at an unsustainable rate. He has five goals on six attempts on target, with his 83 percent conversion rate well above the 48 percent he averaged the previous three seasons. Putting 55 percent of his shots on target will certainly come back down closer to his 39-percent average over the last three seasons.
Ulloa will not score 30 goals (his current pace) this season. I'm guessing he will struggle to get to 15. Some of this will be because his opponents will start keying on him defensively in open play as well as set pieces. Some of it will also be due to regression towards his mean. Regardless of the cause, much of Ulloa's 2014-15 fantasy production may be behind us. Just take this as a simple warning before you consider cutting loose the likes of a struggling but much more proven players like Robin van Persie in order to get him into your lineup.
For the best low-cost options for Gameweek 6, here is the newest edition of the Bargain Bin:
Goalkeeper
Fraser Forster vs. Queens Park Rangers
Forster is currently tied for the league-lead with three clean sheets this season and ranks second overall in fantasy points for goalkeepers. His current run has seen Southampton blank their previous two opponents. In fact, Forster and Southampton have yet to allow a goal while playing at St. Mary's Stadium. They return home this weekend to take on an anemic Queens Park Rangers, who have yet to score a goal on the road through two matches, and average just 1.5 shots on target away from Loftus Road. The low work-load will not total many saves, but it certainly increases the chances of a clean sheet.
Honorable Mention: Tom Heaton vs. West Bromwich Albion – Heaton sits atop the goalkeeper mountain with the most fantasy points this season thanks to three consecutive clean sheets. West Bromwich Albion put the fourth-fewest shots on target in the Premier League and Burnley will certainly be looking to steal an away point this weekend.
Defender
Phil Bardsley vs. Newcastle United
Bardsley was in this same spot last weekend and let everyone down as Stoke City conceded two goals to lowly Queens Park Rangers, but they return home to take on Newcastle United this weekend. The Magpies have done a fantastic Jekyl and Hyde performance between their home and away matches this season. While they average 1.67 goals at home, they have yet to find the back of the net away from St. James' Park in league play. Combine that with a player that is one shot off the team-leading pace and Bardsley is a strong fantasy play for a second consecutive week.
Honorable Mention: Kieran Trippier vs.West Bromwich Albion – The Burnley defense has done a wonderful job as they have kept three consecutive clean sheets. While Trippier is not known for doing the dirty work defensively, he does get full credit for clean sheets. He also tallied 12 assists last season, and if Burnely are able to finally score a second goal this season, there is a good chance Trippier will be involved.
Midfielder
Dusan Tadic vs. Queens Park Rangers
It's time to go heavy on the Saints this weekend, as they should control the game on both halves of the field. Tadic leads Southampton in assisted shots and is second in shot attempts, while still being cheap enough in ESPN's Premier Fantasy game to be listed in the Bargain Bin. Queens Park Rangers have allowed an average of four goals per away match, which is tops in the Premier League this season. Southampton could approach that numberm which would give Tadic plenty of chances to put up good fantasy value.
Honorable Mention: Jason Puncheon vs. Leicester City – Puncheon has at least one goal or one assist in every match he has played this season except against that stingy Burnley defense. Leicester City, Puncheon's opponent this weekend, allow the most shots and shots on target in away matches, and they could be in line for a letdown after their emotional showing last weekend.
Forward
Graziano Pelle vs. Queens Park Rangers
Pelle took another step toward cementing his "Lukaku status" with an assist last weekend against Swansea City. The striker now has three goals and one assist on the season and will look for more against QPR's porous defense. Multiple goals should be in order for the Saints, which bodes well for all their attacking players.
Honorable Mention: Connor Wickham vs. Swansea City
Wickham continues to pressure the net, as he is currently in the top-10 in shots attempted this season, though he has yet to find the back of the net. Much of that can be attributed to his poor accuracy to start the season. Only two of his 14 attempts have been on target (14 percent), but that should not last for someone that was 33 percent accurate coming in to the season. Expect Wickham to attempt multiple shots once again, and expect his luck to turn eventually.
