2025 U.S. Open: Two Americans in Action as Quarterfinals Commence
The quarterfinals of the U.S. Open begin Tuesday from the hard courts of the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center in New York. Favorites are in good position on the men's side to set up a blockbuster semifinal, but Tuesday's women's quarterfinal could feature a surprise or two.
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All men's singles matches at Grand Slams such as the U.S. Open are best of five sets, while women's singles matches are best of three sets. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be viewed as favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
U.S. Open Tennis Picks: Upset Alert
Marketa Vondrousova (+235) vs. Aryna Sabalenka
Vondrousova tends to play Sabalenka tough, as Sabalenka holds a narrow 5-4 head-to-head edge and they have split two meetings in 2025. This tournament has brought out the oft-injured Czech's most healthy and effective form arguably since Vondrousova's 2023 Wimbledon title. Vondrousova has notched back-to-back top-10 wins over Jasmine Paolini and Elena Rybakina, and the crafty lefty surprisingly out-served Rybakina in the Round of 16, with three key aces in the final game to raise her total for the match to 13. Sabalenka has a significant edge in power, but Vondrousova does a terrific job of keeping her opponents off balance while still capitalizing on her own opportunities to play aggressively. While Sabalenka has the feel to play cat-and-mouse points as well, getting dragged into those would be playing right into Vondrousova's hands.
U.S. Open Tennis Odds: Lock It In
Novak Djokovic (-185) vs. Taylor Fritz
Djokovic had some rocky moments early in the tournament as he shook off the rust in his first action since Wimbledon, but he's unsurprisingly rounding into form as we hit the second week. He dropped just eight games in the Round of 16 against Jan-Lennard Struff, who took out top-17 seeds in his previous two matches. Fritz is also coming off his best performance of the tournament, a straight-sets win over No. 21 seed Tomas Machac, but this match should come down to Djokovic's level since he has a 10-0 career head-to-head edge over Fritz, including a straight-sets win in the 2023 U.S. Open quarterfinals. Djokovic hasn't quite returned serve at his customary GOAT level, but his ability to read Fritz's serve should neutralize the American's biggest weapon to some extent, while Fritz is a mediocre returner who is unlikely to make consistent inroads into the service games of Djokovic, who has faced only one break point in each of his last two matches.
Honorable Mention
Carlos Alcaraz (-2000) vs. Jiri Lehecka
U.S. Open Tennis Predictions: Value Bets
Barbora Krejcikova (+195) vs. Jessica Pegula
Krejcikova has a better chance than the odds suggest thanks to the two-time Grand Slam winner's championship mentality. Despite facing a red-hot American opponent and a partisan crowd in the Round of 16, Krejcikova raised her level in the biggest moments of her 1-6, 7-6 (13), 6-3 win over Taylor Townsend. She saved eight match points in the second set, taking matters into her own hands with brave, attacking tennis. Pegula's more athletic and can exploit Krejcikova's defensive deficiencies, but Krejcikova makes up for her lack of speed with great anticipation and an aggressive mindset, plus she has arguably the best net game on the WTA Tour. Pegula's just 1-6 in Grand Slam quarterfinals, and if the No. 4 seed gets a little tight and starts leaving the ball short, Krejcikova has the tools to capitalize. Krejcikova will try to avoid another slow start after dropping the first set in each of her last two matches.
