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Pitching Value Meter: Not A Bum

Paul Sporer

Paul Sporer

Sporer covers pitching for RotoWire. He also writes for Baseball Prospectus and publishes an annual guide on starting pitcher. In his spare time, he roots for the Tigers.

As always, remember that rotations are subject to change so if you see something that isn't correct, assume that it was a change that has occurred since this article was posted. Feel free to bring it up in the comments, and I'll let you know where the new arm slots.

For the week May 6-12

NATIONAL LEAGUE

START

1. Madison Bumgarner - PHI, ATL (insane start not getting much pub)
2. Cliff Lee - @SF, @ARI
3. Clayton Kershaw - ARI
4. Adam Wainwright - COL
5. Matt Harvey - PIT
6. Stephen Strasburg - CHC (keep a close eye on his Sat. start at PIT)
7. Mat Latos - MIL
8. Cole Hamels - @ARI (2.33 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 25% K rate in last four; he's fine)
9. A.J. Burnett - SEA (since STL shelling 5/2/12: 3.03 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 23% K, 7% BB in 228.7 IP)
10. Jeff Samardzija - @WAS
11. Trevor Cahill - @LAD, PHI
12. Paul Maholm - @CIN, @SF (bounced back well from DET implosion with 8 strong v. WAS)
13. Kris Medlen - @CIN, @SF (he's been fine, but nowhere near draft-day cost)
14. Lance Lynn - @CHC
15. Jordan Zimmermann - DET
16. Mike Minor - @CIN
17. Matt Cain - ATL (Not worried long-term, but HRs have been the issue, and that's all ATL does)
18. Ian Kennedy - PHI
19. Hyun-Jin Ryu - MIA (who saw a 30% K rate coming from the South Korean import?)
20. Homer Bailey - ATL
21. Shelby Miller - COL
22. Tony Cingrani - MIL
23. Yovani Gallardo - @CIN
24. Gio Gonzalez - CHC (BB rate up 4% and causing major issues)
25. Kyle Kendrick - @SF (since rejoining rotation last Aug: 2.92 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 18% K, 5% BB in 111 IP)
26. Josh Beckett - ARI, MIA
27. Andrew Cashner - MIA, @TB (MIA starts boost Beckett & Cashner)
28. Wade Miley - @LAD
29. Jon Niese - PIT
30. Kyle Lohse - TEX
31. Jaime Garcia - COL
32. Roy Halladay - @ARI (three great starts, three awful ones; good luck figuring this one out)
33. Kevin Slowey - @LAD (19 straight innings without a BB, 26% K rate in that span)
34. Patrick Corbin - PHI (14 straight innings without a BB, 22% K rate in that span)
35. Tim Lincecum - PHI, ATL
36. Wandy Rodriguez - @NYM
37. Ross Detwiler - CHC
38. Jonathan Pettibone - @SF
39. Ricky Nolasco - @SD
40. Dan Haren - DET (2.84 ERA in last 3 vs. STL, CIN, & ATL)
41. Travis Wood - STL (hasn't allowed more than 3 ER in any start)
42. Shaun Marcum - PIT
43. Edwin Jackson - @WAS
44. Tim Hudson - @SF

CAUTION

45. James McDonald - SEA, @NYM
46. Scott Feldman - TEX, @WAS
47. Jorge De La Rosa - NYY, @STL
48. Brandon McCarthy - @LAD, PHI
49. Bronson Arroyo - ATL, MIL (all five of these two-start guys have implosion potential; be careful)
50. Carlos Villanueva - STL (home runs remain an ever-present concern)
51. Jose Fernandez - @LAD
52. Jeff Locke - @NYM
53. Jake Westbrook - @CHC (terrible 1.1 K/BB yielding higher WHIP [1.40] than ERA [1.07]; run!)
54. Marco Estrada - @CIN (SP with 2.5 HR/9 going to Cincinnati? Yikes.)
55. Ryan Vogelsong - ATL
56. Mike Leake - ATL
57. Dillon Gee - CWS
58. Matt Magill - MIA
59. Barry Zito - PHI
60. Jason Marquis - MIA
61. Julio Teheran - @SF
62. Eric Stults - MIA
63. Clayton Richard - @TB
64. Alex Sanabia - @SD
65. Wade LeBlanc - @SD
66. Edinson Volquez - @TB (he has a 6.39 ERA despite a 7-shutout inning start)
67. Jeremy Hefner - CWS, PIT
68. Wily Peralta - TEX, @CIN
69. Juan Nicasio - NYY
70. Tyler Chatwood - @STL
71. Jeanmar Gomez - @NYM
72. Jeff Francis - NYY
73. Jon Garland - @STL
74. Dodgers Fifth Starter - ARI (they have been cursed with injuries, so I have no idea who this will be)
75. Hiram Burgos - likely to be skipped with 2 MIL off-days

AMERICAN LEAGUE

START

1. Yu Darvish - @HOU
2. Felix Hernandez - @PIT
3. Justin Verlander - CLE (these three aces still top a handful of strong two-start guys)
4. James Shields - CWS, NYY (still rain in the 10-day, so no guarantees he makes both of these)
5. Clay Buchholz - MIN, TOR (cheating allegations are silly)
6. Anibal Sanchez - @WAS, CLE
7. Hiroki Kuroda - @COL, @KC (underrated stud; trips to COL haven't been that treacherous so far this year)
8. Max Scherzer - CLE (will be challenged v. tough CLE lineup)
9. David Price - TOR (back-to-back QS with 14 K, 2 BB in 15 IP, breathe easy)
10. Matt Moore - TOR (hiccup in Coors is hardly a crime)
11. Jon Lester - TOR
12. Chris Sale - @NYM (since 8 ER v. CLE: 2.57 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 20 K, 7 BB in 21 IP)
13. Hisashi Iwakuma - OAK
14. CC Sabathia - @COL
15. Jake Peavy - @KC, LAA (back spasms that pushed him back to Monday knock him down a few spots)
16. Alexi Ogando - @HOU
17. Derek Holland - @MIL (avoiding the home runs leading to an amazing start to his season)
18. Alex Cobb - SD
19. Doug Fister - @WAS
20. R.A. Dickey - @TB (still only the one awful start, but neck/back issues add some fear)
21. Ryan Dempster - MIN, TOR
22. Ervin Santana - @BAL, NYY (rain/snow washed out 7 K in 4 IP against TB)
23. Jeremy Hellickson - TOR, SD
24. Wei-Yin Chen - KC, @MIN
25. Nick Tepesch - @CHC, @HOU (still think there's some fool's gold, but two hot matchups keep him high)
26. Andy Pettitte - @KC (looking to bounce back from HOU implosion)
27. Dan Straily - @SEA
28. C.J. Wilson - @HOU (HOU doesn't draw many walks, which is Wilson's biggest problem)
29. Chris Tillman - KC
30. Jason Hammel - @MIN (slowly getting better)
31. John Lackey - MIN
32. Jason Vargas - @HOU
33. Jeremy Guthrie - @BAL
34. Jose Quintana - LAA
35. Justin Grimm - @MIL
36. J.A. Happ - @TB, @BOS
37. Brandon Morrow - @BOS (6.15 ERA in five starts since strong season debut)
38. Zach McAllister - OAK, @DET (McAllister isn't bad at all, but these are two tough lineups)
39. Felix Doubront - MIN
40. Lucas Harrell - TEX (there's some talent here, but still a bit inconsistent)

CAUTION

41. Justin Masterson - OAK (A's can stack 6 bits of lefty kryptonite against Masterson)
42. Hector Santiago - @NYM
43. Scott Diamond - @BOS, BAL
44. Roberto Hernandez - TOR, SD (component skills strong, but HRs are worrisome)
45. Jarrod Parker - @CLE, @SEA (getting better, still not quite "back")
46. Tommy Milone - @CLE, @SEA (just a different pitcher on the road)
47. A.J. Griffin - @CLE
48. Bartolo Colon - @CLE (the Indians are really tough offensively)
49. Joe Blanton - @HOU (skeptical even at HOU coming off back-to-back QS)
50. Bud Norris - LAA
51. Wade Davis - NYY (great start cratered by back-to-back implosions against divisional rivals DET, CLE)
52. Phil Hughes - @KC
53. Scott Kazmir - OAK
54. Miguel Gonzalez - KC
55. Dylan Axelrod - LAA
56. Corey Kluber - @DET (wait-and-see with him, especially against a tough offense)
57. Kevin Correia - @BOS
58. Tommy Hanson - @CWS
59. Jerome Williams - @CWS
60. Jordan Lyles - LAA
61. Freddy Garcia - @MIN
62. David Phelps - @COL
63. Ricky Romero - @TB (I'm a huge fan, but playing it cautiously early on)
64. Brandon Maurer - OAK (he or Saunders likely will be skipped in 5-day week for SEA)
65. Joe Saunders - OAK (he or Maurer likely be skipped in 5-day week for SEA)
66. Luis Mendoza - @BAL
67. Mike Pelfrey - BAL
68. Vance Worley - @BAL, BAL
69. Aaron Harang - @PIT, OAK
70. Mark Buehrle - @TB, @BOS
71. Phil Humber - TEX
72. Erik Bedard - LAA, TEX
73. Ubaldo Jimenez - OAK, @DET
74. Pedro Hernandez - @BOS
75. Rick Porcello - will be skipped with DET having two off days

MLB TOP 100

1. Madison Bumgarner - PHI, ATL
2. Cliff Lee - @SF, @ARI
3. Yu Darvish - @HOU
4. Clayton Kershaw - ARI
5. Felix Hernandez - @PIT
6. Justin Verlander - CLE
7. James Shields - CWS, NYY
8. Clay Buchholz - MIN, TOR
9. Adam Wainwright - COL
10. Matt Harvey - PIT
11. Stephen Strasburg - CHC
12. Mat Latos - MIL
13. Anibal Sanchez - @WAS, CLE
14. Hiroki Kuroda - @COL, @KC
15. Max Scherzer - CLE
16. Cole Hamels - @ARI
17. A.J. Burnett - SEA
18. David Price - TOR
19. Jeff Samardzija - @WAS
20. Trevor Cahill - @LAD, PHI
21. Paul Maholm - @CIN, @SF
22. Kris Medlen - @CIN, @SF
23. Lance Lynn - @CHC
24. Matt Moore - TOR
25. Jon Lester - TOR
26. Chris Sale - @NYM
27. Hisashi Iwakuma - OAK
28. Jordan Zimmermann - DET
29. Mike Minor - @CIN
30. Matt Cain - ATL
31. CC Sabathia - @COL
32. Jake Peavy - @KC, LAA
33. Alexi Ogando - @HOU
34. Derek Holland - @MIL
35. Alex Cobb - SD
36. Doug Fister - @WAS
37. R.A. Dickey - @TB
38. Ryan Dempster - MIN, TOR
39. Ervin Santana - @BAL, NYY
40. Ian Kennedy - PHI
41. Hyun-Jin Ryu - MIA
42. Homer Bailey - ATL
43. Shelby Miller - COL
44. Tony Cingrani - MIL
45. Jeremy Hellickson - TOR, SD
46. Wei-Yin Chen - KC, @MIN
47. Nick Tepesch - @CHC, @HOU
48. Yovani Gallardo - @CIN
49. Gio Gonzalez - CHC
50. Kyle Kendrick - @SF
51. Josh Beckett - ARI, MIA
52. Andrew Cashner - MIA, @TB
53. Wade Miley - @LAD
54. Andy Pettitte - @KC
55. Dan Straily - @SEA
56. Jon Niese - PIT
57. Kyle Lohse - TEX
58. Jaime Garcia - COL
59. C.J. Wilson - @HOU
60. Roy Halladay - @ARI
61. Kevin Slowey - @LAD
62. Patrick Corbin - PHI
63. Chris Tillman - KC
64. Jason Hammel - @MIN
65. John Lackey - MIN
66. Jason Vargas - @HOU
67. Jeremy Guthrie - @BAL
68. Jose Quintana - LAA
69. Justin Grimm - @MIL
70. J.A. Happ - @TB, @BOS
71. Brandon Morrow - @BOS
72. Tim Lincecum - PHI, ATL
73. Wandy Rodriguez - @NYM
74. Ross Detwiler - CHC
75. Jonathan Pettibone - @SF
76. Ricky Nolasco - @SD
77. Dan Haren - DET
78. Travis Wood - STL
79. Shaun Marcum - PIT
80. Edwin Jackson - @WAS
81. Tim Hudson - @SF
82. Zach McAllister - OAK, @DET
83. Felix Doubront - MIN
84. Lucas Harrell - TEX
85. Justin Masterson - OAK
86. Hector Santiago - @NYM
87. Scott Diamond - @BOS, BAL
88. Roberto Hernandez - TOR, SD
89. James McDonald - SEA, @NYM
90. Jarrod Parker - @CLE, @SEA
91. Tommy Milone - @CLE, @SEA
92. Scott Feldman - TEX, @WAS
93. Jorge De La Rosa - NYY, @STL
94. Brandon McCarthy - @LAD, PHI
95. Bronson Arroyo - ATL, MIL
96. A.J. Griffin - @CLE
97. Bartolo Colon - @CLE
98. Joe Blanton - @HOU
99. Carlos Villanueva - STL
100. Jose Fernandez - @LAD