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Pitching Value Meter: Season Finale

Paul Sporer

Paul Sporer

Sporer covers pitching for RotoWire. He also writes for Baseball Prospectus and publishes an annual guide on starting pitcher. In his spare time, he roots for the Tigers.

As always, remember that rotations are subject to change so if you see something that's incorrect, assume that it was a change that has occurred since this article was posted. Feel free to bring it up in the comments, and I'll let you know where the new arm slots.

With expanded rosters in effect, probables are subject to change more than usual. Stay tuned to our fantasy news wire and projected starters for updates.

For the week Sept. 23-29

NATIONAL LEAGUE

START

1. Adam Wainwright - WAS, CHC (after two duds vs. CIN, Waino has a 1.59 ERA, 22 Ks in last three)
2. Mike Minor - MIL, PHI
3. Zack Greinke - at SF, COL (1.98 ERA in 12 starts since break is supported by 70 Ks, 3.9 K:BB)
4. Clayton Kershaw - COL
5. Cole Hamels - at MIA
6. Madison Bumgarner - LAD (quietly closing with a bang, posting 1.80 ERA, 31 Ks in 25 Sept. IP)
7. Matt Cain - LAD, SD
8. Francisco Liriano - at CHC
9. Homer Bailey - PIT (faced PIT nearly a year ago and threw a no-hitter)
10. Gio Gonzalez - at STL
11. Mat Latos - NYM
12. Cliff Lee - at ATL (8 IP in four of his last five, five of six)
13. Jordan Zimmermann - at STL
14. Stephen Strasburg - at ARI (downgraded because no idea if he'll make the start)
15. Julio Teheran - PHI
16. A.J. Burnett - at CIN
17. Gerrit Cole - at CHC (everyone worried after just 11 Ks in his first 24 IP, but has 83 in his last 87)
18. Shelby Miller - WAS
19. Kris Medlen - PHI
20. Johnny Cueto - NYM, PIT (lowered because one, if not both, is likely to be a five-and-dive)
21. Zack Wheeler - at CIN, MIL
22. Tanner Roark - at STL, at ARI (riding one of the hotter hands in MLB)
23. Wade Miley - at SD, WAS
24. Charlie Morton - at CHC, at CIN
25. Jon Niese - at CIN (3.06 ERA in eight starts since returning from DL, including 4.0 K:B)
26. Dillon Gee - MIL
27. Hyun-Jin Ryu - COL
28. Joe Kelly - CHC
29. Patrick Corbin - WAS (sputtering to finish line with three duds in last five)
30. Mike Leake - NYM
31. Travis Wood - at STL
32. Kyle Lohse - at ATL
33. Yovani Gallardo - at NYM (at least 6 IP in last six, posting 2.29 ERA)
34. Andrew Cashner - at SF
35. Robbie Erlin - ARI (great since returning to rotation with 1.80 ERA in four starts)
36. Tyler Chatwood - BOS
37. Tyson Ross - ARI (bounced back from horrific 0.7-IP/6-ER dud in PHI with a 7-IP/2-ER gem in PIT)
38. Marco Estrada - at ATL, at NYM
39. Eric Stults - ARI, at SF (don't love him on the road, but San Francisco is pitcher-friendly)
40. Nathan Eovaldi - PHI, DET
41. Roy Halladay - at MIA, at ATL (up, down, up, down ... good luck with him)
42. Jeff Samardzija - PIT, at STL (risk is high, but significant reward particularly with strikeouts)
43. Wily Peralta - at NYM
44. Ricky Nolasco - at SF (recent Nolasco - 11 ER in last 6.3 IP - is all too familiar to owners of yesteryear)
45. Jorge de la Rosa - at LAD
46. Jacob Turner - PHI
47. Dan Haren - at ARI (another high-risk, high-reward candidate)
48. Trevor Cahill - at SD
49. Ryan Vogelsong - SD
50. Lance Lynn - CHC (good luck figuring him out: 4 IP/7 ER in PIT, 6.3 IP/2 ER in COL)
51. Randall Delgado - at SD
52. Yusmeiro Petit - SD
53. Jhoulys Chacin - at LAD
54. Bronson Arroyo - PIT

CAUTION

55. Brandon McCarthy - at SD, WAS
56. Alex Wood - MIL
57. Michael Wacha - WAS
58. Tim Lincecum - LAD
59. Edwin Jackson - at STL
60. Edinson Volquez - at SF
61. Kyle Kendrick - at MIA, at ATL
62. Ian Kennedy - ARI
63. Paul Maholm - PHI
64. Tyler Thornburg - at ATL
65. Chris Rusin - PIT
66. Tyler Cloyd - at ATL
67. Brian Flynn - DET
68. Carlos Torres - MIL
69. Juan Nicasio - at LAD
70. Jake Arrieta - PIT
71. Roy Oswalt - BOS
72. Henderson Alvarez - PHI
73. Tom Koehler - DET
74. Aaron Harang - at CIN
75. Daisuke Matsuzaka - MIL

AMERICAN LEAGUE

START

1. Yu Darvish - HOU, LAA (1-3 in Sept. despite 3.38 ERA; only one was on him as he went 5 IP/5 ER)
2. Derek Holland - HOU, LAA
3. Anibal Sanchez - at MIA
4. Max Scherzer - at MIN (finally got No. 20, now he hopes to get under 3.00 ERA to firm up Cy Young case)
5. Hisashi Iwakuma - KC (three scoreless outings in his four Sept. starts)
6. Chris Sale - KC
7. Justin Verlander - at MIN, at MIA (still not vintage JV, but reliable in Sept.; this slate is juicy)
8. Felix Hernandez - OAK
9. Chris Archer - BAL, at TOR
10. Matt Moore - at NYY, at TOR (headed toward great Sept. before a 4-IP/5-ER dud vs. TEX)
11. Chris Tillman - TOR, BOS
12. Jon Lester - at BAL (quietly dropped a 2.29 ERA in 12 starts since the break)
13. Ubaldo Jimenez - CWS (0.64 ERA, 31 Ks, 10.3 K:BB in four Sept. starts)
14. David Price - at NYY
15. Bartolo Colon - at LAA (recaptured groove with 0.72 ERA, 25 Ks in 25 IP over four Sept. starts)
16. Ervin Santana - at SEA
17. Alex Cobb - at NYY (great since returning from DL: 3.05 ERA, 42 Ks in 44.3 IP)
18. Jarrod Parker - at SEA
19. Corey Kluber - at MIN (hasn't gone more than 5 IP in three starts since returning from DL)
20. James Shields - at CWS
21. Sonny Gray - at SEA
22. Doug Fister - at MIN
23. Ivan Nova - at HOU (struggling lately, but this matchup is enticing enough to take a shot)
24. John Lackey - at BAL
25. Hiroki Kuroda - TB (5.14 ERA, 1-6 in his last nine starts)
26. Rick Porcello - at MIA (a few terrible outings have kept him from a career-low ERA)
27. Andy Pettitte - at HOU (Pettitte's last start ever could be against former team)
28. Jake Peavy - at COL
29. Jered Weaver - OAK (scratched Friday with forearm injury; this is a very cautious ranking)
30. Jose Quintana - TOR, KC
31. A.J. Griffin - at LAA, at SEA
32. Garrett Richards - OAK, at TEX (Griffin, Richards both 3-0 in four Sept. starts, closing with a bang)
33. Erasmo Ramirez - OAK
34. Scott Kazmir - at MIN (has Minnesota's number: 1.44 ERA, 0.96 WHIP with 5.0 K:BB in four starts)
35. R.A. Dickey - TB
36. C.J. Wilson - at TEX (has been destroyed by his former team)
37. Jason Vargas - OAK, at TEX
38. Danny Salazar - CWS, at MIN
39. Yordano Ventura - at SEA, at CWS (Salazar, Ventura will have pitch counts monitored; might struggle to finish five in either outing)
40. Wei-Yin Chen - TOR, BOS
41. Alexi Ogando - LAA (looked good in return to rotation)
42. CC Sabathia - TB
43. Martin Perez - HOU
44. Brett Oberholtzer - NYY (don't expect a win, but he does have 1.67 ERA in four Sept. starts)
45. Zach McAllister - at MIN
46. Dan Straily - at LAA
47. Matt Garza - LAA (brutal, just flat-out brutal)

CAUTION

48. Mark Buehrle - at BAL
49. Bruce Chen - at SEA, at CWS
50. Hector Santiago - at CLE
51. Phil Hughes - TB, at HOU
52. Esmil Rogers - at BAL
53. Scott Feldman - TOR
54. Erik Bedard - NYY
55. Andre Rienzo - KC
56. Erik Johnson - KC
57. James Paxton - KC
58. Jeremy Guthrie - at CWS
59. Miguel Gonzalez - TOR
60. Jeremy Hellickson - at TOR
61. J.A. Happ - at CWS, TB
62. Andrew Albers - CLE
63. John Danks - at CLE
64. Ryan Dempster - at COL
65. Jerome Williams - at TEX
66. Brandon Maurer - KC
67. Brad Peacock - at TEX
68. Jason Hammel - TOR
69. Todd Redmond - at BAL, TB
70. Paul Clemens - NYY
71. Joe Saunders - OAK
72. Mike Pelfrey - DET, CLE
73. Jordan Lyles - at TEX
74. Kevin Correia - DET
75. Dallas Keuchel - at TEX
76. Cole DeVries - CLE
77. Scott Diamond - DET
78. Pedro Hernandez - CLE

MLB TOP 100

1. Yu Darvish - HOU, LAA
2. Derek Holland - HOU, LAA
3. Adam Wainwright - WAS, CHC
4. Mike Minor - MIL, PHI
5. Zack Greinke - at SF, COL
6. Clayton Kershaw - COL
7. Cole Hamels - at MIA
8. Madison Bumgarner - LAD
9. Matt Cain - LAD, SD
10. Anibal Sanchez - at MIA
11. Max Scherzer - at MIN
12. Hisashi Iwakuma - KC
13. Chris Sale - KC
14. Justin Verlander - at MIN, at MIA
15. Felix Hernandez - OAK
16. Francisco Liriano - at CHC
17. Homer Bailey - PIT
18. Gio Gonzalez - at STL
19. Mat Latos - NYM
20. Cliff Lee - at ATL
21. Chris Archer - BAL, at TOR
22. Matt Moore - at NYY, at TOR
23. Chris Tillman - TOR, BOS
24. Jordan Zimmermann - at STL
25. Jon Lester - at BAL
26. Ubaldo Jimenez - CWS
27. Stephen Strasburg - at ARI
28. Julio Teheran - PHI
29. A.J. Burnett - at CIN
30. Gerrit Cole - at CHC
31. Shelby Miller - WAS
32. Kris Medlen - PHI
33. Johnny Cueto - NYM, PIT
34. Zack Wheeler - at CIN, MIL
35. Tanner Roark - at STL, at ARI
36. Wade Miley - at SD, WAS
37. Charlie Morton - at CHC, at CIN
38. David Price - at NYY
39. Bartolo Colon - at LAA
40. Ervin Santana - at SEA
41. Alex Cobb - at NYY
42. Jarrod Parker - at SEA
43. Corey Kluber - at MIN
44. James Shields - at CWS
45. Sonny Gray - at SEA
46. Doug Fister - at MIN
47. Ivan Nova - at HOU
48. Jon Niese - at CIN
49. Dillon Gee - MIL
50. Hyun-Jin Ryu - COL
51. Joe Kelly - CHC
52. John Lackey - at BAL
53. Hiroki Kuroda - TB
54. Rick Porcello - at MIA
55. Andy Pettitte - at HOU
56. Jake Peavy - at COL
57. Jered Weaver - OAK
58. Jose Quintana - TOR, KC
59. A.J. Griffin - at LAA, at SEA
60. Garrett Richards - OAK, at TEX
61. Erasmo Ramirez - OAK
62. Scott Kazmir - at MIN
63. R.A. Dickey - TB
64. C.J. Wilson - at TEX
65. Mike Leake - NYM
66. Jason Vargas - OAK, at TEX
67. Patrick Corbin - WAS
68. Travis Wood - at STL
69. Kyle Lohse - at ATL
70. Yovani Gallardo - at NYM
71. Andrew Cashner - at SF
72. Robbie Erlin - ARI
73. Danny Salazar - CWS, at MIN
74. Yordano Ventura - at SEA, at CWS
75. Wei-Yin Chen - TOR, BOS
76. Alexi Ogando - LAA
77. CC Sabathia - TB
78. Tyler Chatwood - BOS
79. Tyson Ross - ARI
80. Marco Estrada - at ATL, at NYM
81. Eric Stults - ARI, at SF
82. Nathan Eovaldi - PHI, DET
83. Roy Halladay - at MIA, at ATL
84. Jeff Samardzija - PIT, at STL
85. Wily Peralta - at NYM
86. Ricky Nolasco - at SF
87. Martin Perez - HOU
88. Brett Oberholtzer - NYY
89. Jorge de la Rosa - at LAD
90. Jacob Turner - PHI
91. Dan Haren - at ARI
92. Zach McAllister - at MIN
93. Dan Straily - at LAA
94. Trevor Cahill - at SD
95. Ryan Vogelsong - SD
96. Lance Lynn - CHC
97. Randall Delgado - at SD
98. Yusmeiro Petit - SD
99. Jhoulys Chacin - at LAD
100. Matt Garza - LAA