This article is part of our The Z Files series.
For the better part of the last two months, I've presented data from the 2019 National Fantasy Baseball Championship Main Event with accompanying analysis. While the foundation was rosters from this high stakes competition, many of the findings transcend solely this specific contest. That said, since the NFBC information was so prevalent in the discussion, the takeaways germane to private leagues could have been masked. As such, the pertinent discussion from the six installments relevant to all leagues will now be highlighted.
Winning Tendencies, Part One
The original article can be found here.
Drafted Versus Final Stats
The results from the NFBC corroborated previous studies. While it depends on player pool penetration, between 65 and 90 percent of stats are acquired via the draft. The deeper the penetration, the larger the amount. Number of teams, roster size and teams in the pool affect penetration. For example, a 10-team mixed league checks in around 65 percent while 12-team American or National League only formats hover near 90 percent.
In what will become a recurring theme, competitive teams worried less about steals and saves, both at the draft and in-season. Even though I don't have data to demonstrate this carries over to all leagues, the logic is quite persuasive.
There are four reasons steals shouldn't be a focus of a rotisserie draft.
1. For the first time since 1972, there were fewer than one stolen base a game.
2. A lower percentage of players contribute a higher percentage of steals