MLB Barometer: Risers & Fallers

We've nearly made it, somehow. While last week added apocalyptically bad air quality to the depressingly long list of reasons that games have been postponed this year, it does appear that the season will indeed be completed, barring some unforeseen tragedy over the final seven days. I have to admit that I wasn't always convinced that we'd make it, especially when the Marlins' COVID-19 outbreak occurred on the very first weekend of the year.

The league and players have managed to navigate through the challenges, and, gimmicky extra-innings rules aside, it's been a great way to pass the last two months. I'm grateful that my leagues generally elected to go forward despite the initial apprehension. My teams had a bit too much Justin Verlander and Christian Yelich on them, so I've had my eye on next season recently, but it's been refreshing just to be playing fantasy baseball again, nonetheless.

This week's Risers section is full of younger players who appear to be reaching new levels lately (or in some cases, since the start of the season). Next year will be perhaps the most difficult draft season ever as we wrestle with what to do with these sorts of players. We know not to overreact to hot streaks, but we certainly have to adjust our evaluations of players by a fair amount if that "hot streak" lasted the entirety of a season and was backed up by strong peripherals. There will be plenty of time to discuss that over the offseason, however, and I'm sure the answers will vary widely on a case-by-case basis. For now, it's time to dive into 10 players who have particularly impressed or disappointed in recent weeks.

RISERS

Dinelson Lamet, SP, Padres: Lamet was a popular sleeper pick this past offseason after he showed a dominant 33.5 percent strikeout rate (albeit with a mediocre 4.01 ERA) in 14 games after returning from Tommy John surgery in 2019, though whether or not he can truly be called a sleeper with an NFBC ADP of 122.7 was perhaps up for debate. Some thought he was going far too high given the brevity of his track record, but it turns out that he actually went far too low, as he's been the seventh-best pitcher according to our earned auction values. He's managed to increase his strikeout rate slightly to 35.2 percent while trimming his walk rate from 9.6 percent to 7.5 percent. While a .243 BABIP undoubtedly contributes to his dominant 2.07 ERA, his 2.51 FIP and 3.31 xFIP paint a rather encouraging picture as well. He's only been getting better as the season has gone on, as he owns a 0.87 ERA, a 0.73 WHIP and a 32:4 K:BB over his last three starts.

Rafael Devers, 3B, Red Sox: Devers endured an awful start to the season, slashing a miserable .185/.239/.317 with just two homers through his first 21 games. Fears that he would wind up closer to his 90 wRC+ from 2018 than his 132 mark from last year were hard to avoid at that point. In the 30 games since then, however, he's been as good as ever, hitting .350/.398/.667 with nine homers. Most significantly, his strikeout rate has improved by quite a bit, as he owned a 29.5 percent mark during his early struggles but has a 21.8 percent strikeout rate during his recent hot streak. That's still well above his 17.0 percent mark from last season, but it's come with a .317 ISO, well above his .244 ISO in 2019. While he's already nearly done his fourth season, he's still just 23 years old, so there's plenty of time for him to combine last year's contact with his current level of power going forward.

Byron Buxton, OF, Twins: Buxton has gone on a remarkable run over the last two weeks, homering seven times in 11 games while hitting .342/.359/.947. Is this finally the long-awaited Buxton breakout? Indications there are perhaps mixed, though generally encouraging. His injury issues haven't gone away entirely, though by his standards, a single near-minimum stay on the injured list counts as progress. He's also somehow managed to walk just twice all season, leading to a .279 on-base percentage and hurting him in OBP leagues. Still, his incredibly lopsided .271/.279/.602 slash line is good for a 128 wRC+, easily the best mark of his career. His quality of contact is the best it's ever been, as his 14.3 percent barrel rate smashes his previous career high of 8.3 percent.

Will Smith, C, Dodgers: Smith's success as a rookie in his 54-game debut last season didn't come out of nowhere, as he was a highly touted prospect. Not many foresaw him immediately producing a 132 wRC+ though, the product of a .253/.337/.571 slash line. He hasn't taken a step back in his sophomore season, but has instead made a big jump forward, hitting .297/.420/.582, good for a 168 wRC+.  While the sample is again small (31 games), his numbers look very legitimate given how he's hitting the ball. Statcast gives him a .311 xBA and a .593 xSLG. Perhaps most impressive is his plate discipline, as he's walking 16.1 percent of the time while striking out in just 14.3 percent of his plate appearances, both of which represent significant improvements on his 9.2 percent walk rate and 26.5 percent strikeout rate as a rookie. He's one of just 10 players who've come to the plate at least 100 times while walking more than they've struck out, a list which includes the likes of Juan Soto, Freddie Freeman, Bryce Harper and Anthony Rendon.

Alec Bohm, 3B, Phillies: While plenty of rookies have struggled this season, Bohm's transition to the big leagues has been so smooth that you can almost certainly point to the Phillies' service-time manipulation of their star prospect as the reason they missed the playoffs, should their half-game lead evaporate over the final week. The young third baseman could hardly have looked more big-league ready, as he grabbed six hits in his first five games in the majors and hasn't looked back since. He owns a particularly strong .404/.472/.638 line over his last 13 games, giving him an overall .331/.389/.496 line through his first 37 MLB contests. While .396 BABIP inflates that somewhat, Statcast doesn't really think he's overachieving, giving him a .305 xBA and a .522 xSLG. Combining contact and power was his calling card in the minors, where he struck out just 13.8 percent of the time, and he's managed to strike out just 20.1 percent of the time in the majors. While he's only homered four times, his power should eventually develop given his 6-foot-5 frame and the fact that he clearly knows how to hit.

FALLERS

Pete Alonso, 1B, Mets: The Mets faced lefty Max Fried on Friday, yet it was the left-handed Dominic Smith who started at first base, with the right-handed Alonso on the bench. That would have been quite a shock a year ago, when Alonso was in the process of completing an incredible rookie season in which he hit .260/.358/.583 with a rookie-record 53 homers. He simply hasn't been that guy this year, as he's hitting a very unimpressive .207/.303/.424. His strikeout and walk rates are both within a percentage point of where they were last year, but he's simply not hitting the ball as hard as he did in 2019. Statcast doesn't think he's underachieving by much, as he owns an xBA of .221 and an xSLG of .437. His barrel rate has dropped from 15.8 percent to 10.7 percent, while his average exit velocity has fallen from 90.7 mph to 88.6 mph.

Luis Robert, OF, White Sox: Robert tore out of the gate in his rookie campaign, posting a 1.019 OPS through his first eight games. He stayed hot for quite some time, as he owned a .298/.348/.612 slash line through the end of August. He's fallen off a cliff in September however, hitting .100/.203/.150 over 17 games. The season is short enough that his slump has more or less cancelled out his hot streak, giving him a .232/.299/.459 slash line, good for a slightly above average 105 wRC+. That's not bad for a rookie by any means, and throwing in his 11 homers and eight steals makes him a valuable fantasy asset, but it's mediocre enough that he no longer looks like the surefire perennial All-Star he seemed to be to start the season. Strikeout issues looked like the thing that could hold him back, and that's been the case, as he's struck out in 31.5 percent of his plate appearances thus far.

J.D. Martinez, OF, Red Sox: While the Red Sox may have been expected to struggle this season, I doubt many people had them in contention for the worst record in the American League. Likewise, while some may have faded the 33-year-old Martinez during draft season based on the fact that he clearly started to age last year, I doubt many expected him to have quite this poor a season. His wRC+ dipped from 170 in 2018 to 139 last year, but this year it's collapsed to 72, the product of a .205/.287/.373 slash line. A list of qualified hitters in the last decade who have finished with a 72 wRC+ includes the likes of Gordon Beckham, Yuniesky Betancourt and Alexei Ramirez. Martinez has seen his strikeout rate rise a bit from 21.0 percent to 25.4 percent, but the biggest issue is that the quality of his contact has dropped dramatically. He's not underachieving by much, per his .233 xBA, as his hard-hit rate of 40.3 percent is nearly seven ticks below his previous Statcast-era low.

Nolan Arenado, 3B, Rockies: Speaking of hitters whose numbers have fallen off dramatically this season, Arenado's year has been as startlingly poor as Martinez's. In the last four seasons, the lowest numbers he managed in each triple-slash category were a .294 BA, .362 OBP and .561 SLG. This season, he's hitting .253/.303/.434, which translates to just a 75 wRC+ given that he calls Coors Field home. He's actually cut his strikeout rate to a career-low 10.0 percent, but he's simply not hitting the ball as hard as he usually does, as he has career Statcast-era lows in exit velocity (87.8 mph), hard-hit rate (33.7 percent) and barrel rate (5.4 percent). That could be the result of his shoulder issues, as he underwent a test Sunday and could be ruled out for the year by the time this is published. Reports regarding the issue only popped up in mid-September though, which fails to explain his season-long mediocrity.

Miguel Sano, 1B/3B, Twins: Sano is going to have the best season ever for a qualified batter who finishes the season with a strikeout rate over 40 percent, as there's a very good chance he'll be the only qualified batter ever to finish the year with a strikeout rate above 40 percent, though Evan White and his 39.8 percent mark could change that. In any case, Sano hasn't actually been all that bad on the whole this season, as his lopsided .212/.287/.512 slash line is good for a respectable 109 wRC+. He was hitting a far better .243/.336/.557 through his first 34 games before collapsing to a .145/.175/.418 line over his last 15. The quality of contact remains incredible, as he leads the league with an average exit velocity of 96.0 mph, but he's always going to have stretches like this, and his recent 44.7 percent strikeout rate has meant it's practically been a coin flip whether or not he'd strike out in a given at-bat.