Monday Best Bets

Monday Best Bets

This article is part of our MLB Betting series.

Previous article 4-0 +3.00

Overall 155-124-2 +13.22

With a four game slate and an early start time, I will give brief writeups on the picks today and go conservative. When there are only 1-2 games, I do a deeper dive like we saw yesterday.

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves 1:07 pm EDT

Freddy Peralta vs. Ian Anderson

Both games in Milwaukee went under the total as the pitching matchups on both sides were elite and evenly matched. I think we get an edge here for the Brewers on the starting pitching which leans me to like them today on the road.

The Brewers are 9-3 SU on the road in Peralta's starts and he has been an underdog just once all year in this role. The Braves are 8-2 in Anderson's home starts so this angle is a wash.

This game comes down to who I think will have the lead after the 5th inning, and I lean towards the Brewers as they are slightly better in runs scored / runs allowed on the road in the F5 vs. the Braves. The Brewers have a significant edge in the bullpen, so with a lead after 5 innings, I like them to win the game this afternoon.

BET – Brewers ML (-105) for 1 RW buck

Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox 3:37 pm EDT

Jose Urquidy vs. Carlos Rodon

Yesterday, I wrote about the White sox success as home favorites between -100 and -150 and the Astros struggles as road dogs in this spot and it paid off. Unfortunately, I do not feel that will come into play in today's matchup.

Carlos Rodon is clearly not 100% and has been on a pitch count with a drop in velocity. The Astros are not the type of team that bodes well for Rodon and I can see them jumping on him early. I think Rodon will go 3 innings max in this game.

On the other side, Urquidy does not walk many batters nor strike them out, but he does give up a lot of contact. His lone start against the White Sox came at home on June 17th and he went 7 innings, allowing 2 runs, while striking out 5. In his last 6 starts since coming off the IL, he has a 4.25 ERA in just 29.2 innings.

I expect both starting pitchers to have short leashes this afternoon and the Astros to close out the series.

BET – Over 8.5 runs (-125) for 1 RW buck

BET – Astros ML (+105) for 1 RW buck

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox 7:07 pm EDT

Collin McHugh vs. Eduardo Rodriguez

Initially I was going to go with the Rays to win as I just felt they had some terrible luck last night and would force a game 5, but their bullpen is toast along with the Red Sox. The only thing I feel confident on is a lot of runs early which has been the pattern in Red Sox home games.

BET – Over 5.5 runs F5 (+105) for 1 RW buck

San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers 9:37 pm EDT

Alex Wood vs. Max Scherzer

It is hard to lay -200 in any baseball game never mind against the Giants. I also do not know what Max Scherzer we will get as he says they may have found something in his mechanics from his prior start and fixed it.

The current Dodgers lineup is hitting .329 against Wood, but a big piece of that is A.J. Pollock at 10 for 25 (.400). Still, I am not looking to back Wood unless it is a strikeout prop. Wood has hit over 4.5 strikeouts in 8 out of 11 road starts including 2 starts against the Dodgers. Even though the Dodgers lineup is firing on all cylinders right now, I think Wood will be able to go 4-5 innings and hit the over.

BET – Wood over 4.5 strikeouts (-120) for 1 RW buck

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Michael Rathburn
Known as “Rath” in the Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) community, he has helped run operations for two prominent daily fantasy sports startups. Michael has taken his insider knowledge and expertise in daily fantasy sports to the content side. Rath won the 2016 FSWA "Baseball Article of the Year, Online" award and was a finalist for the FSWA Best Baseball Series in 2011.
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