A compact seven-game main slate is on deck Saturday evening at FanDuel, with first pitch at 7:15 p.m. EDT. Only four of our 14 pitching options are considered to be in a pay-up tier, so we're not forced to spend there, but doing so and hitting will create an advantage.
Runs appear to be at a premium, as four games sit with a low 7.5 run total. Athletics-Royals is again our high spot at 10.5, a number they didn't flirt with yesterday. There aren't any overwhelming favorites, with the Guardians (-164) leading the way, followed by the Astros (-162) and Braves (-162). Weather will not be a factor; it's dry across the slate with just some minor wind assistance in San Diego.
Pitching
Spencer Strider, ATL vs. PIT ($9,700): After a bit of a season-long struggle, Strider is closing in solid form, earning two wins and two quality starts in his last three while averaging 41.7 FanDuel Points. The Pirates strike out at a middling 23.0 percent off righties, posting a second-to-last 84 wRC+. They had a blow up offensive performance last night in a far softer matchup and seemingly are due some regression. Strider has allowed two runs or less in four of his last five and has at least six Ks in three straight.
Joey Cantillo, CLE vs. TEX ($8,500): On one hand, I think Cantillo is overpriced; he's logged 6-plus innings in just two of his 12 starts and he's walking 4.1 per nine as a starter. On the other hand, he's averaging 9.4 Ks per nine (24.7 percent K rate), is allowing a .277 wOBA, 2.93 ERA and 3.27 FIP. The Rangers lineup is injury depleted, Cleveland needs to win, while Texas is just playing things out, and the Rangers have a 23.4 percent K rate and 84 wRC+ off lefties. I don't think a 4x return is likely, but 3x can happen.
Eduardo Rodriguez, ARI at SD ($8,300): Absolutely for GPPs only as Rodriguez has been a roller coaster all season, but right now, it's been more good than bad. He's allowed one or zero runs in four of his last five, posting at least 37 FDP in those four outings. He's fared well against this lineup as well, allowing a .245 BA (24-for-98) with a .696 OPS. We'll need clean innings, as the strikeouts aren't going to be high; he's fanned this lineup just 15.9 percent of the time and is averaging 8.3 per nine.
Top Targets
Nick Kurtz ($4,100) isn't in terrific form, but he also has a .480 wOBA, 212 wRC+ and .380 ISO off righties. Michael Wacha has allowed 13 runs and 17 hits across his last 7.2 innings.
Jackson Chourio ($3,600) is just 1-for-20 over his last five games, but still has managed 12-plus FDP in his last two thanks to two walks, two steals and a run. He's 2-for-4 off Andrew Abbott with a homer, and is usually a plug-and-play option against lefties, boasting a .403 wOBA, 162 wRC+ and .226 ISO. Pairing him with an equally slumping William Contreras ($3,200), who is 5-for-17 (.294) with a homer off Abbott will be off most radars.
Bargain Bats
Right back to the well with discounted Brave bats, though with conviction against a surging Bubba Chandler. Michael Harris ($2,900) homered and had two more hits last night, giving him 10 hits and seven RBI in his last five. Drake Baldwin ($2,700) had another hit and RBI last night, giving him a nine-game hitting streak with 12 RBI.
Angels-Astros is a spot to target some secondary options due to its 9.0 run expectancy, but it's not easy to have faith, as the Astros aren't tearing the cover off the ball, and Houston's starter in AJ Blubaugh isn't likely to work deep, eliminating any splits we can target. Angels starter Caden Dana is getting ripped at home, with an 8.44 ERA, allowing a .590 wOBA and 1.447 OPS to righties, opening up the entire Houston lineup. Jose Altuve ($3,200) for stability, Christian Walker ($3,100) for power and low floor. On the Angels side, I can't quit Christian Moore ($2,700), who has six hits in his last seven and brings extra-base upside.
Stack to Consider
Royals vs. Luis Morales (Athletics): Vinnie Pasquantino ($3,200), Maikel Garcia ($3,200), Salvador Perez ($3,100)
Morales was supposed to start Friday but was pushed back a day, so this feels a bit like cheating for this column as I wanted to stack Royals yesterday, so the analysis remains the same. He doesn't have targetable splits, but he doesn't miss bats (7.8 per nine), allows 1.6 HR per nine and has a 44.7 percent fly ball rate. Pairing Perez and Pasquantino is a mild challenge given that it forces you to eat up your 1B and UTL spots, but Garcia's flexibility provides some relief and allows for three affordable options that can benefit from Bobby Witt in front of them. Garcia is a bit feast or famine but has seven hits in his last five. Perez has driven in eight in his last seven and hit safely in 10 of 12. And Pasquantino has homered in two of his last six, adding hits in 13 of his last 16. That they didn't perform well Friday could work in our favor.
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