Farm Futures: 2015 Risers and Fallers

Farm Futures: 2015 Risers and Fallers

This article is part of our Farm Futures series.

With the minor league baseball season winding down and football and basketball heating up, my time and efforts have to be shifted elsewhere, so this column will no longer be released on a weekly basis in 2015. There will be plenty of minor league coverage coming in November following a trip to the Arizona Fall League, but for the most part, not much will change on the prospect front between now and when the 2016 Top-200 and organizational Top-10s get released early next year. If anyone has prospect keeper questions for dynasty leagues, the comment section of this article is a great place to leave those, or on Twitter @RealJRAnderson. There may also be a Dynasty League Top-300, or something of that ilk, that will encompass the entire player universe (MLB and MiLB) that I am going to try to develop to be released in late-2015.

For the final weekly Farm Futures of 2015, I want to take a look back at the preseason Top-200 prospect rankings that appeared in the RotoWire Fantasy Baseball Guide, and look at the biggest risers and fallers among players who are still in the minor leagues. In many cases the biggest riser did not even appear in the preseason Top-200, and similarly, the biggest faller may have completely fallen off the most recent Top-200. This is essentially an opportunity to highlight which young baseball players made me look bad. Players who were drafted or signed after the preseason rankings were released were not included

With the minor league baseball season winding down and football and basketball heating up, my time and efforts have to be shifted elsewhere, so this column will no longer be released on a weekly basis in 2015. There will be plenty of minor league coverage coming in November following a trip to the Arizona Fall League, but for the most part, not much will change on the prospect front between now and when the 2016 Top-200 and organizational Top-10s get released early next year. If anyone has prospect keeper questions for dynasty leagues, the comment section of this article is a great place to leave those, or on Twitter @RealJRAnderson. There may also be a Dynasty League Top-300, or something of that ilk, that will encompass the entire player universe (MLB and MiLB) that I am going to try to develop to be released in late-2015.

For the final weekly Farm Futures of 2015, I want to take a look back at the preseason Top-200 prospect rankings that appeared in the RotoWire Fantasy Baseball Guide, and look at the biggest risers and fallers among players who are still in the minor leagues. In many cases the biggest riser did not even appear in the preseason Top-200, and similarly, the biggest faller may have completely fallen off the most recent Top-200. This is essentially an opportunity to highlight which young baseball players made me look bad. Players who were drafted or signed after the preseason rankings were released were not included in this exercise.

Catcher

Riser:Jacob Nottingham, 20, High-A, A's
Preseason rank: NR
Approximate current rank: 100-125

It didn't take long for Nottingham to hit his way into the top-200. A relative unknown entering the season, the 2013 sixth-round pick hit 10 home runs with a .931 OPS in 59 games with Low-A Quad Cities and was then the headliner in a trade that netted Scott Kazmir for the Astros. Oakland is no stranger to bat-first catchers, and Nottingham certainly fits the bill. He will enter 2016 as one of the top fantasy catching prospects and will be one of the top targets for owners in leagues that don't allow in-season minor league pick-ups.

Honorable mention:Tom Murphy, Aramis Garcia, Ali Sanchez

Faller:Francisco Mejia, 19, Low-A, Indians
Preseason rank: 114
Approximate current rank: NR

Mejia is the only catcher who qualifies here, as I only ranked six catchers in the preseason Top-200. Kyle Schwarber and Blake Swihart have graduated and Jorge Alfaro, Gary Sanchez and Chance Sisco are ranked right around where they were in the preseason. This leaves Mejia, a player whose ceiling may not have changed this season, but who did not take the kind of jump forward that dynasty league owners were likely hoping for. Herein lies the problem with getting over-excited about catching prospects who require a lot of projection and no full-season experience. Mejia may eventually make it to the majors as an above-average regular, and he could even make it as an all-star, but it's hard to see him reaching the big leagues before 2019, and he also fits the mold of a player who will need multiple years in the big leagues before his offensive tools begin to really show up in games. Hitting nine home runs while getting on base at a .335 clip in Low-A as a 19-year-old certainly doesn't qualify as a setback, but his name no longer carries the same shiny appeal in dynasty leagues that it did before the season.

Honorable mention: N/A

First Base

Riser:A.J. Reed, 22, Double-A, Astros
Preseason rank: NR
Approximate current rank: 10-20

This one is easy. While plenty of first base prospects have emerged as players to watch, Reed is the only player who has emerged as a must-own in all dynasty formats, and someone who could be an impact bat at the big league level in the very near future. Favorable hitting environments certainly had a hand in Reed's 2015 minor league numbers, but 33 home runs and a .346/.438/.621 slash line in 128 games across High-A and Double-A still screams future cleanup hitter. In leagues that do not allow in-season pick-ups, but where Yoan Moncada was able to be owned, Reed should be the first minor leaguer off the board in dynasty league drafts in 2016.

Honorable mention:Rhys Hoskins, Cody Bellinger, Trey Mancini, Sam Travis, Ryan O'Hearn, Casey Gillaspie, Rowdy Tellez, Nelson Rodriguez

Faller:D.J. Peterson, 23, Triple-A, Mariners
Preseason rank: 48
Approximate current rank: 175-Unranked

Peterson had a horrid 2015, all the way up to his season-ending Achilles strain in early August, right after being promoted to Triple-A. After putting up a .636 OPS and seven home runs in 93 games at Double-A Jackson, which plays pretty neutral, it can hardly be said that the 2013 first-round pick deserved a promotion, but Seattle may have simply thought a change of scenery could help Peterson finish the year strong. At first glance I think Peterson will just barely sneak onto the 2016 Top-200, but that's certainly not a lock. With a new regime in Seattle, the best chance for Peterson to regain some dynasty league appeal would be for him to get dealt to a team whose ballpark has more favorable dimensions and whose depth chart could allow him to get a fair shake in the major leagues next season.

Honorable mention: Matt Olson

Second Base

Riser:Forrest Wall, 19, Low-A, Rockies
Preseason rank: NR
Approximate current rank: 25-50

Wall was one of the biggest oversights on the Top-200 that appeared in the magazine, but that was soon remedied. It's really hard to find a flaw in Wall's offensive game. He slashed .277/.354/.446 with seven homers and 22 steals in 92 games as a 19-year-old in his first taste of a full-season league. He also plays second base and will someday call Coors Field home. Yoan Moncada is quite easily the top second base prospect in baseball, but Wall has the second-most upside at the position and, thanks to an excellent approach (38:66:38 BB:K), a similarly high floor.

Honorable mention:Wilmer Difo, Yoan Moncada, Tony Kemp

Faller:Travis Demeritte, 20, Low-A, Rangers
Preseason rank: 119
Approximate current rank: NR

Demeritte had a very miserable 2015. First his power fell off and his K-rate remained absurdly high (34.8 percent), then he got popped for using a performance-enhancing drug and received an 80-game suspension on June 4. Even in extremely deep leagues it's hard to make a case for owning Demeritte, whose 25 homers at Low-A in 2014 seem extremely likely to serve as the high water mark for success in his professional baseball career.

Honorable mention:Alen Hanson, Ryan Brett, Avery Romero, Chris Bostick

Third Base

Riser:Jomar Reyes, 18, Low-A, Orioles
Preseason rank: NR
Approximate current rank: 75-100

Reyes has a .774 OPS in 84 games in a full-season league and he doesn't turn 19 until February, yet for some reason, he seems to remain under the radar. He has just five home runs this season, which obviously won't stand out on any minor league leaderboards, but again, he's just 18 years old. He has shown a manageable approach, a hit tool that could get to plus, and his body (6-foot-3, 220 pounds) suggests more power will be coming, and soon. It will be interesting to see how many people start pumping Reyes up this offseason, because there seems to be a solid chance that he could still be had for a discount in dynasty league drafts next year if the noise doesn't increase this winter.

Honorable mention:Rafael Devers, Gilbert Lara, J.D. Davis, Matt Chapman, Kyle Kubitza

Faller:Renato Nunez, 21, Double-A, A's
Preseason rank: 94
Approximate current rank: 175-Unranked

This is a tough position to pick a true faller, as all four players listed here still have the ability to make it as solid big league third basemen. That said, Nunez has the feel of a guy who will have a long big league career holding down the short side of a platoon at either third base, first base or DH, due to his pronounced platoon splits this year at Double-A (.869 OPS vs. lefties compared to .757 against righties). Obviously he is not a complete disaster against righties, and he has youth in his favor, but my hunch is that he ends up as a platoon player for most of his career. Players like this rarely carry much prolonged fantasy value. In fact, his career might mirror that of Oakland's current third baseman, Danny Valencia. It is a testament to Oakland's shoddy big league roster that Valencia is playing almost every day. Nunez could go on the occasional two-month run with an organization where he gets enough playing time and hits enough home runs to be useful, but I don't think a team will ever be happy to have him as their everyday third baseman.

Honorable mention:Hunter Dozier, Rio Ruiz, Michael Chavis

Shortstop

Riser:Javier Guerra, 19, Low-A, Red Sox
Preseason rank: NR
Approximate current rank: 20-40

The deepest position in the lower levels of the minor leagues always seems to be shortstop. Any of these players would make for fine choices for the honor of biggest riser, but Guerra has the fewest flaws and perhaps the highest ceiling of the bunch.

Player A: 11 home runs, 67 RBI, .278/.320/.433 in 108 games
Player B: 15 home runs, 64 RBI, .279/.331/.458 in 109 games

Player A is Rafael Devers -- one of the top power-hitting prospects in the minor leagues. Devers is the player many believe will eventually take the torch from David Ortiz as a 1B/DH in the middle of Boston's lineup before the end of the decade. Player B is Guerra, Devers' teammate on the Greenville Drive, and more notably, a shortstop. Yes, Guerra is one year older than Devers, but it speaks to how advanced his bat is that he is perhaps the top home run threat on the most stacked lineup in the lower levels of the minor leagues.

Honorable mention:Orlando Arcia, Willy Adames, Gleyber Torres, Ruddy Giron, Alex Blandino, Ozhaino Albies, Edmundo Sosa, Richard Urena, Christian Arroyo, Trevor Story, Gavin Cecchini, Tyler Wade, Isan Diaz

Faller: N/A

What does it say about a position where basically nobody saw their stock decrease throughout this season? Perhaps the key takeaway is, when in doubt, take the shortstop prospect. They are often the most athletic players in high school or when signing out of Latin America, and while they often end up eventually moving off of shortstop, the fact that they started at that position can often speak to the player's offensive upside.

Outfield

Riser:Victor Robles, 18, short season, Nationals
Preseason rank: NR
Approximate current rank: 30-60

Robles has not played in a full-season league yet, but he has also not displayed a single offensive flaw, so it's awfully hard for dynasty league owners to curb their enthusiasm. Robles basically resembles Manuel Margot with a better hit tool and perhaps a tad less speed. He is likely unowned in leagues that do not allow in-season pick-ups, and he has all the makings of a player who will be blown up nationally over the winter and will cost a very high pick in dynasty leagues in the spring. Owning Robles will require some patience, but he could move quite fast relative to his age and current level.

Honorable mention:Bradley Zimmer, Billy McKinney, Brett Phillips, Derek Fisher, Phillip Ervin, Anthony Alford

Faller:Gabby Guerrero, 21, Double-A, Diamondbacks
Preseason rank: 61
Approximate current rank: NR

This one hurts me more than it hurts you. Not only did I have Guerrero shares in multiple dynasty leagues entering the season, but nothing would please me more than for a member of the Guerrero clan to get to the big leagues and dominate while we await the arrival of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. The big question coming into the season was: How much of Guerrero's 2014 production was a product of his home park at High Desert and the generally favorable hitting conditions of the California League? The answer: An awful f****** lot. Ranking Guerrero as high as I did was certainly avoidable, but in the end I was blinded by excessive respect for his bloodlines and raw tools. A very similar situation could arise next season, when we see what hitters like A.J. Reed, Brett Phillips, Derek Fisher and J.D. Davis do with a full year away from Lancaster, where the hitting conditions are almost as advantageous as those at High Desert. I tend to fully believe in Reed, Phillips and Fisher, and I have reservations about Davis. It is just worth noting that one of the easiest ways to get burned in prospect evaluation is to shrug off favorable hitting environments when the results line up with our preconceived notions.

Honorable mention:Alex Jackson, James Ramsey, Tyrone Taylor, Austin Wilson

Pitcher

Riser:Jose De Leon, 23, Double-A, Dodgers
Preseason rank: NR
Approximate current rank: 15-30

As is always the case, a plethora of arms really exceeded expectations this season, and some of those hurlers are already in the big leagues, most notably Lance McCullers, who was unranked before the season because I thought he would end up as a reliever -- representing my biggest whiff of the year. De Leon wasted very little time this season going from unranked by everyone in the industry to a consensus top-50 prospect before the All-Star break. How did he do it? By missing bats, of course. The 6-foot-2 righty has 157 strikeouts in 109.2 innings between High-A and Double-A and is poised to get a crack in the big league rotation sometime next summer.

Honorable mention:Blake Snell, Sean Newcomb, Alex Reyes, Luis Ortiz, Frankie Montas, Amir Garrett, Duane Underwood, Brent Honeywell, Franklyn Kilome, Tyrell Jenkins

Faller:Dylan Bundy, 22, Double-A, Orioles
Preseason rank: 9
Approximate current rank: 50-Unranked

I ranked Bundy 119 on the latest Top-200, and some days that number seems 50 spots too high and on other days I wonder if he should be ranked at all. It's hard to say if making Bundy put his cutter on the shelf when they first got their hands on him played into Bundy's arm issues, but I think it should serve as a cautionary tale to other clubs. When a big-league ready pitcher with the realistic floor of a No. 2 starter falls into a team's lap, the best thing to do is to probably let him reach the big leagues and start getting outs. Once he's there and having success, adding a pitch in the offseason or refining a pitch is something that established starters work on all the time in the offseason. Hindsight is certainly 20/20 on this one, but it seems like the Orioles created a problem where none existed. Then again, perhaps I'm just a really bitter baseball fan who is worried he may never get to see Bundy approach his ceiling due to constant issues with his right arm. The good news is that Bundy was just cleared to begin a throwing program. The bad news is that Bundy will be out of options next season, so the Orioles will probably have to use him in a way that could be harmful to his overall development. For this reason he will enter 2016 as one of the most intriguing prospects in baseball, but fantasy owners should know by now to be prepared for disappointment and tragedy where Bundy is concerned.

Honorable mention:A.J. Cole, Alex Meyer, Luke Jackson, Carl Edwards Jr.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
James Anderson
James Anderson is RotoWire's Lead Prospect Analyst, Assistant Baseball Editor, and co-host of Farm Fridays on Sirius/XM radio and the RotoWire Prospect Podcast.
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