MLB Bets Today: Expert MLB Picks and Props for Thursday, Sept. 28
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I'm looking to keep the momentum going tonight by focusing on two matchups that feature a team in each league that has plenty of postseason incentive and that's facing a non-contending squad from its division.
New York Yankees 
at Toronto Blue Jays 
Best Bets
The Yankees are officially eliminated from the postseason, putting an unsavory exclamation point on a profoundly disappointing season relative to spring expectations. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays remain in a dogfight for an AL wild-card spot, as they'll enter Thursday with a hold of the second slotting, albeit by a slim half-game margin over the Astros and by two games over the outside-looking-in Mariners.
It all adds up to what should be another night of elevated motivation for the Jays, who have embarrassingly been shut out by New York in each of the first two games of the current series. The untimely offensive funk very likely comes to an end tonight, however, as highly hittable right-hander Luke Weaver takes the hill for the Bronx Bombers.
Weaver has been appreciably better of late and actually tossed 5.1 innings of shutout ball last time out against the Diamondbacks, while Toronto has perplexingly struggled against right-handed pitching at home recently. Nevertheless, the upside of the Jays' lineup is beyond question, and Weaver's career-high 2.0 HR/9 could come into play here against a talented offense that's due for a breakout.
Brandon Belt has been the current Blue Jays bat that's given Weaver the most trouble during his career, having faced the right-hander plenty during their joint NL days. Belt owns a .556 average with three doubles and zero strikeouts across 12 plate appearances versus Weaver, and the Yankees starter has surrendered a .313 average and .418 wOBA to left-handed hitters when facing them outside his home parks this season.
MLB Best Bets for Yankees at Blue Jays:
- Blue Jays -0.5 - 1st 5 innings (-140 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
- Brandon Belt At Least 2 Hits (+270 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
Miami Marlins 
at New York Mets 
Best Bets
The Marlins are the other contending team facing a New York squad on Thursday night. Miami enters the day tied with the Cubs for the third NL wild-card spot and sends Jesus Luzardo to the mound against David Peterson.
Despite Peterson's crooked 3-8 record, 5.37 ERA and 1.60 WHIP, the Jekyll-and-Hyde left-hander could make for a tough assignment for the Marlins. Peterson has been a completely different pitcher at Citi Field, where he sports a 2-2 record, 3.18 ERA and 0.9 HR/9 over 51 innings. Those numbers are in stark contrast to the 1-6 mark, 7.47 ERA, 1.77 WHIP and 1.9 HR/9 he's managed across 53 road frames.
Then, the Marlins have some drastic splits of their own that are relevant to tonight's matchup. Miami has been largely punchless against lefties on the road throughout the second half of the season, mustering just a .223 average, .128 ISO, .268 wOBA and -15.1 wRAA in that split since the All-Star break.
On the other side, Luzardo has looked like a staff ace at times this season and has been in impressive form of late, except for a run-in with the Brewers three starts ago where he allowed six earned runs on 10 hits and four walks over five innings. Even factoring in that outing, Luzardo still sports a 2-1 record, 2.91 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 10.1 K/9 and 0.3 HR/9 across his last six outings overall. He also gave the Mets plenty of trouble back in his first start of the season on March 31, shutting them out over 5.2 innings in South Florida.
Nevertheless, the Mets have been a tough out for lefties at home, even after falling out of contention. New York owns a .272 average, .774 OPS and .338 wOBA against lefties at home in the last month, along with a modest 20.9 percent strikeout rate.
Consequently, betting the Under on an elevated strikeout total for Luzardo is in play, but taking a shot on a lower run total when both arms are still at the freshest is also not a bad way to go, either.
MLB Best Bets for Marlins at Mets:
- Jesus Luzardo Under 6.5 strikeouts thrown (-140 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
- Under 2.5 runs - first 3 innings (-130 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
MLB Best Bets Recap:
- Blue Jays -0.5 - 1st 5 innings (-140 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
- Brandon Belt At Least 2 Hits (+270 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
- Marlins-Mets Under 2.5 runs - first 3 innings (-130 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
- Jesus Luzardo Under 6.5 strikeouts thrown (-140 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
