This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
Thursday slates tend to be the lightest of the week due to travel days, and that's what we have again here. There are eight games in total, but they're split between day and night. We'll zone in on the night card beginning at 6:35 EDT because that's the main card on FanDuel. Five games make up that slate, and there are still some fascinating selections available despite the limited options. The only worrisome factor is that we don't have any terrible pitchers to exploit, so it'll be challenging to fill out the bats. With that said, we have one of the game's best pitchers in one of the best possible spots, so let's start there.
Try our FanDuel MLB Lineup Optimizer to discover more expert recommendations, customize the player pool, set exposure percentage and mass-enter DFS lineups.
Pitching
Framber Valdez, HOU vs. CWS ($10,600)
We would use Valdez against anyone given how he's pitching, but he's impossible to fade against Chicago. The White Sox rank 29th or 30th in runs scored, OBP, OPS and xwOBA since the start of last season. The Colorado Rockies are the only team challenging them for those tin crowns, and that says a lot about how lackluster this lineup can be. We don't need much incentive to use Valdez against them, but the lefty has a 1.84 ERA, 0.86 WHIP and 9.6 K/9 rate across his last six starts. He's scored at least 40 FanDuel points in all of those and should be a -300 favorite in this sensational spot.
Jameson Taillon, CHC at PIT ($9,000)
Taillon has become an underrated arm, amassing a 3.35 ERA and 1.08 WHIP since the start of last season. It's strange to see such an affordable player with ratios like those, especially since he gets a revenge game against the Pirates. Pittsburgh ranks 27th in OPS, 29th in runs scored, 24th in K rate and 26th in xwOBA. That looks even better since Taillon threw seven scoreless innings in their most recent matchup last September en route to 34 FanDuel points. The righty also comes into this magical matchup rolling, registering a 1.69 ERA and 0.71 WHIP across his last four starts while scoring at least 29 FD points in all of those.
Top Targets
Seiya Suzuki, CHC (vs. Andrew Heaney) $3,600
Suzuki is quietly having an All-Star season in Chicago. What many people don't realize is that Suzuki has been an on-base stud for years, posting a .354 OBP and .850 OPS since his first MLB season in 2022. The outfielder is also on pace for a career-high 40 homers, tallying a .281 AVG, .342 OBP, .580 SLG and .922 OPS since the opening week of the season. The best part about this is his splits against southpaws, with Suzuki sporting a .419 OBP, .726 SLG and 1.145 OPS with the platoon advantage this season. Heaney is not a worrisome matchup either, amassing a 4.37 career ERA.
Isaac Paredes, HOU (vs. Davis Martin) $3,300
Paredes had a rough season with the Chicago Cubs last year, but the move to Houston provided the ideal venue for his pull power and he's provided a .349 OBP, .505 SLG and .854 OPS across his last 53 games. He also has a .861 OPS across his last 31 outings, while generating an .817 OPS at home this season. Daikin Park's Crawford Boxes are perfect for Paredes' swing given how much he pulls the ball, and we aren't worried about a matchup with Martin. We'll dive into his numbers in the Stacks To Consider section.
Bargain Bats
Kerry Carpenter, DET (vs. Dean Kremer) $3,300
We know Carpenter is the same salary as Paredes, but he's a value play because he'll carry a lower roster rate. It's hard to understand why that might be the case, because Carpenter is one of the best platoon bats in baseball. The outfielder always bats leadoff against right-handers, totaling a .292 AVG, .546 SLG and .889 OPS against them since 2023. That's a rough matchup for a struggling pitcher like Kremer, who has compiled a 4.98 ERA and 1.41 WHIP.
Vinnie Pasquantino, KC (vs. Will Warren) $2,900
Vinnie P has always showcased some of the best hard-hit metrics in the sport, and we're finally seeing that turn into actual production. After a slow start, Pasquantino has a hit in 20 of his last 22 games, providing a .400 AVG, .457 OBP and 1.022 OPS in that span. Most of that damage has come against right-handers, as he's registered a .300 AVG, .475 SLG and .833 OPS against them this year. We love that when examining Warren's recent struggles, as the Yankee hurler has accumulated a 14.85 ERA and 2.55 WHIP across his last two starts.
Stacks to Consider
Houston Astros (vs. Martin): Jeremy Pena ($3,300), Jose Altuve ($2,900), Paredes ($3,300), Jake Meyers ($2,800)
There isn't a pitcher on this slate who presents a clear stacking opportunity, but Martin looks like the best option. The White Sox have had one of the worst pitching staffs over the last three years, and Martin has been a part of that. His 3.62 ERA and 1.21 WHIP this season are actually solid, but his 4.67 career ERA and 1.37 WHIP coming into the season are far from impressive. The advanced statistics tell us some negative regression is right around the corner too, with Martin maintaining a 5.55 xERA and 4.55 FIP this year.
Baseball fans might not realize this, but Pena is one of the league leaders in WAR right now. In what's shaping up to be a career year, Pena has nine dingers and 13 steals en route to a .375 OBP and .859 OPS. As for Altuve, the perennial All-Star has a .349 AVG, .587 SLG and .955 OPS across his last 16 outings. Meyers has the platoon advantage against Martin, producing a .368 OBP and .780 OPS against righties this year. He also has a .397 OBP and .877 OPS across his last 35 fixtures!
