A nine-game main slate awaits Saturday with a later than usual evening start at 7:05 p.m. EDT. Unlike Friday, we've got clarity with no five-figure starting pitcher and only five of 18 options at $9,000 or greater.
The Twins (-194) represent the slate''s biggest favorite, though there's no pitching to be had in Coors Field based on the highest projected run total (11.5). All other matchups are fairly tightly contested, further providing no suggested boost for our starter selections. Astros-Mariners gives us the lowest total of the evening, but it's still at an elevated 8.0. Suffice to say we're looking for an adequate pitcher and plenty of offense rather than a huge showing from our most expensive piece. Rain looks negligible, perhaps some late issues in Cleveland with the wind slightly favorable in Atlanta, Chicago and Los Angeles.
Pitching
Logan Allen, CLE vs. Athletics ($8,800): The Athletics carry a very targetable 24.8 percent K rate against lefties with a below average 94 wRC+. Allen is in reasonable enough having produced three straight quality starts while fanning 16 across 18.0 innings. He's only topped 40 FDP three times all season, so it's not an elite ceiling while still profiling as one of the safer options to build around at a $1,000 discount to the slate's most expensive option in Sonny Gray, who faces a better lineup in a hitter's environment.
Emmet Sheehan, LAD vs. MIL ($8,300): Sheehan has only made three appearances this year and has thrown five innings once, so a lack of work immediately caps his potential. He's also only allowed three runs through those outings alongside 13 Ks from 13.1 frames. Milwaukee is league-average against righties with a 100 wRC+ while striking out at a reasonably low 20.8 percent, yet they come with a slate-low 3.9 run expectancy. Five innings with five Ks and run support would give Sheehan some potential.
Luis Severino, Athletics at CLE ($7,500): Severino's splits are all over the place as he's posted a 3.08 ERA and 5.14 xFIP on the road (compared to 6.68/4.39 at home) while his strikeouts are way down outside of Sacramento. He's volatile, but for the most part has been an innings eater for the A's. Cleveland has registered a .299 wOBA, 91 wRC+ and 21.8 percent K rate versus righties. Severino's potential appeal comes more from trusting Cleveland's bats less than his likelihood of blowing up. Not a ringing endorsement, but outside of Jose Ramirez, how many Guardian bats are you interested in?
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Top Targets
I still find the salary adjustment for Coors Field too much. But with pitching not something we have to spend up for, Byron Buxton ($4,700) is the Twins exposure we need. He went 3-for-5 with a homer on Friday while Rockies' starter Antonio Senzatela is allowing a .383 wOBA and .910 OPS to righties at home.
If you're not buying Severino, Jose Ramirez ($3,800) has to be in your lineup. He's fairly valued, in great form, and is 6-for-19 (.316) with three home runs against the A's starter.
We're going to want some Yankee shares against Joey Wentz and the Braves bullpen, yet Aaron Judge ($4,800) is too expensive. I don't think we need to care about splits against lefties with Wentz not likely to work big innings, but Cody Bellinger ($3,400) is a decent pivot if you think he faces that pitcher twice as he boasts a .443 wOBA, 190 wRC+ and .295 ISO off lefties. Paul Goldschmidt ($3,100) allows for a mini stack carrying a .490/223/.293 line.
Bargain Bats
I'm unsure what Corey Seager ($3,300) needs to do for a salary increase. But until it happens, he needs to be a lineup staple. Tigers' starter Keider Montero has been lit up by lefties as he's given up a .408 wOBA and .953 OPS - numbers that are even higher on the road. Evan Carter ($3,200) isn't in as solid of form, though is an interesting less-obvious option - as is Rowdy Tellez ($2,400).
Ezequiel Tovar ($3,100) is a Rockie bat who isn't valued too high to consider since he's recently been activated from injury. Zebby Matthews has been more vulnerable to lefties, though Tovar was immediately plugged into the cleanup spot on Friday.
Stack to Consider
Atlanta vs. Will Warren (Yankees): Ronald Acuna ($4,100), Matt Olson ($3,600), Jurickson Profar ($2,900)
This game looks like it could pop off on both sides with some favorable winds and questionable pitching. Warren enters with a 6.75 road ERA while getting smashed by lefties to the tune of a .398 wOBA and .928 OPS. Atlanta has moved Profar to leadoff, which gives us some financial flexibility. And pairing with Olson together allows us to attack Warren's weakness against southpaws. Acuna has slotted into the third spot of late to allow for more RBI chances. He needs no analysis as he's a one-man wrecking crew who doesn't hold an elite salary. If you want to be different or target more lefties agaisnt Warren, Drake Baldwin ($2,800) was cleanup on Friday and would offer further value, some pop, and not force spending for Acuna.
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