This article is part of our PrizePicks MLB series.
Last week's article finished 2-2, pushing our season record 33-14-2. When writing these picks, I try to ensure that all of the plays pay out even money. Recommending you guys green goblins with a tiny payout doesn't help at all because we want to bump those multipliers as much as possible. That means every pick is essentially a coin flip, so we're ecstatic to be hitting at a 70 percent clip. We'll try to keep that going here, so let's kickstart things with a few pitcher picks!
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Kevin Gausman, TOR vs. NYY: Fewer Than 6.5 Strikeouts
I was shocked to see Gausman's strikeout prop above 5.5. The main reason for that is this matchup with the Yankees. Not only does NY rank second in on-base percentage and fourth in runs scored, but this is the healthiest we've seen them all year. The BvP numbers against Gausman are even more ridiculous, especially from Giancarlo Stanton, Paul Goldschmidt and Aaron Judge:
While the matchup is the most valuable asset, it's not like Gausman has been mowing down bats. He's only passed 6.5 strikeouts in 11 of 16 starts this season, while failing to do it in 24 of 31 starts last year. All of that makes the strikeout line look inflated, especially since Gausman has a 5.46 ERA and 1.36 WHIP across his last five starts. We didn't even mention that Gausman had a 9.98 ERA and 2.35 WHIP in four starts against NY last year while surrendering six runs across 2.2 innings in their only matchup this season. In those five starts, Gausman has just 17 total strikeouts (4.25 per game)!
Joe Ryan, MIN at MIA: More Than 5.5 Strikeouts
We had to get some exposure to Ryan here in one of the best matchups in baseball. Let's start there because Miami ranks bottom five in runs scored, OBP and xwOBA since the start of last year. That's even worse in one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in the sport, with the Marlins only projected to score three runs in this game.
That puny projection is no surprise when you see how remarkable Ryan has been this season. The righty has a 2.86 ERA and 0.89 WHIP in what's developing into a career year. Ryan has also surpassed 5.5 strikeouts in four straight starts, pairing his 10.2 K/9 rate with those absurd averages. He's also never faced this Miami team, which typically benefits a talented pitcher like this.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto, LAD vs. CWS: More Than 17.5 Outs Recorded
When I clicked on the pitching outs section, my jaw dropped when I saw this 17.5-out total. This is simply one of the best pitchers in baseball facing one of the worst lineups over the last century. The White Sox rank 29th or 30th in runs scored, OBP, OPS and xwOBA since the start of last year. That's terrifying in a place like LA, with Yamamoto entering this matchup as a -330 favorite and Chicago projected to score just three runs.
Yoshi has earned those pristine projections because of how perfect is pitching has been. The righty has allowed one run or fewer in nine of 16 starts this year, registering a 2.61 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. That's the dominance we've seen since Yamamoto was signed three years ago, completing at least 18 outs in nine of 16 starts. This sort of situation has no-hit type potential, and it would be truly shocking if he didn't complete six innings against such a weak White Sox lineup.
Ozzie Albies, ATL vs. LAA: More Than 5.0 Fantasy Score (vs. Tyler Anderson)
Not much about Ozzie's season will get you excited to use him, but seeing this fantasy score drop to 5.0 is difficult to overlook. He only needs one big hit to surpass this prop, and having the platoon advantage against a weak lefty should put Albies in a spot to succeed. Let's start with that opposition because Anderson has one of the worst K rates in baseball en route to a 4.41 ERA and 1.37 WHIP.
That's scary with the way Albies has sliced through southpaws throughout his career, compiling a .326 AVG, .537 SLG and .888 OPS against them. That hasn't played out much this season, but Albies does carry a three-game hitting streak into this matchup. It doesn't take much to clear 5.0 fantasy points, and we have to expect this former All-Star to creep up that number as the season progresses.
