This article is part of our PrizePicks MLB series.
Is there a better time to be a baseball fan? The Wild Card teams weren't even decided until the final day of the regular season, and we're going to see them duke it out here. I have no idea who will win it all this year, but I'm excited to see how it plays out. With that in mind, let's look at some PrizePicks plays for this opening day of the playoffs!
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Hunter Greene, CIN at LAD: More Than 6.0 Strikeouts
How weird is it to recommend an opposing pitcher against the Dodgers? That's why this strikeout prop is lower than it should be, but this LA offense isn't as dangerous as everyone might think. This "daunting" Dodgers lineup was outside the Top 10 in runs scored and K rate in the second half. That's no surprise when looking at the bottom half of this order, especially since it's one of the best parks to pitch in.
The Dodgers aren't really the reason we're recommending Greene because he's been one of the best pitchers in baseball. The Reds righty has a 2.76 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and 11.0 K/9 rate. That strikeout stuff has been on full display throughout his career, with Greene reaching at least six Ks in 14 of 19 starts. Two of those misses were due to injuries, and you better believe Cincy is going to ride their horse in this must-win game.
Blake Snell, LAD vs. CIN: More Than 34.5 Fantasy Score
We already had Greene on one end of this game, but Snell is an even better option. Something always changes with this southpaw in the second half, sporting a 2.41 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 11.7 K/9 rate since August 1. That's 10 starts of dominance, with Snell posting a 0.92 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and 13.5 K/9 rate at home in that span.
There aren't many pitchers with scarier stuff, and this Cincy lineup should struggle against him. The Reds rank 17th in wOBA and 23rd in K rate while posting a .298 OBP over the final three weeks of the regular season. That won't bode well against LA because Snell threw a no-hitter while striking out 11 batters in their last matchup back in Cincy. Not to mention, Snell enters this matchup as a -215 favorite!
Tarik Skubal, DET at CLE: More Than 40.5 Fantasy Score
It feels insane to recommend a pitcher to clear 40 fantasy points, but Skubal is not your average arm. This is probably the best pitcher in baseball, providing a 2.21 ERA, 0.89 WHIP and 11.1 K/9 rate in another sensational season. More importantly, he's cleared this total in six of his last seven starts while hitting it in 20 of 31 starts this year.
We could recommend Skubal against anyone, but Cleveland is one of the best matchups in baseball. Despite being one of the hottest teams in the league, the Guardians still rank 29th in OBP and wOBA while posting the worst xwOBA in the league. It's hard to believe an offense like that snuck into the playoffs, and it's really concerning since Skubal has a 0.64 ERA, 0.75 WHIP and 12/9 K/9 rate in four starts against them. He's also averaging 55 fantasy points per game in those matchups while clearing at least 43 fantasy points in all of them!
Manny Machado, SD vs. CHC: More Than 6.5 Fantasy Score (vs. Matthew Boyd)
Picking bats is always more challenging in the postseason due to the nature of the pitching, but there are always spots worth exploiting. Boyd is probably the worst pitcher on this stacked slate and has really struggled in the second half. The southpaw had a 5.51 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 6.6 K/9 rate across his final nine starts.
That's terrifying against one of the hottest lineups in the league, and Machado is an easy choice as one of their most valuable bats. Manny closed the season with a home run in his final game while maintaining a .274 AVG and .804 OPS across his final 128 games. He's also crushed left-handers throughout his career, compiling a .279 AVG, .351 OBP, .495 SLG and .846 OPS against them. The BvP numbers are the jelly in the donut, generating a .385 AVG and .539 SLG in 14 at-bats against Boyd.
