This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Previous article 3-5 -2.73
Season 53-57-1 +12.17
Baseball is a game of thin margins and 0.5 run on a prop can make all of the difference. Last night the Yankees / Orioles game ended 5-4. I had the Yankees -1.5 and under 8.5. We always remember the tough losses, but never the "lucky wins".
The Rays game that I was very strong on played out exactly how I expected, but McClanahan missed his strikeout prop again by 0.5.
The Astros/Red Sox under and the Diamondbacks +1.5 were just bad outcomes no excuses!
I am not in love with the slate today so will take a step back and not force any plays. That also means I usually will double up on a game and find another play vs. selecting a game I don't feel confident about.
When the slate is not one to my liking, I look at the games with the biggest disparity in starting pitchers.
Washington Nationals at Marlins 6:40 pm EDT
When you bet baseball long enough, you start to develop "muscle memory" for certain situations that you know have been successful. I have written about the top MLB teams at home against the run line, the Rockies at home, or when two top pitchers are in a pitchers' park. The Marlins at home when it is Pablo Lopez or Sandy Alcantara are always a must-look for me. Especially in this spot against the lowly Nationals who are terrible on the road.
The Nationals are just 6-14 in their last 20 games and have the 2nd worst win percentage in baseball.
The Marlins are 5-0 vs. the Nationals this year, outscoring them 23-8. Lopez has only had one start with less than a 60 Game Score which is a metric developed by Bill James on a sale of 0-100 to measure the quality of a pitcher's game.
MLB Expert Pick #1 for Marlins-Nationals: Marlins -1.5 for 1 RW buck (BetMGM +115)
MLB Expert Pick #2 for Marlins-Nationals: Under 7.5 for 1.2 RW buck (BetMGM -120)
Seattle Mariners at Toronto Blue Jays 7:07 pm EDT
The Blue Jays have been on a skid lately with a 9-11 mark in their last 20 games, but the Mariners have really fallen by going 5-15 in their last 20. The Mariners don't play well on the road with a 7-14 record, while the Jays are 12-6 at home. The Jays recent woes have all come on the road, so getting back home and facing a slumping Mariners team is just what the doctor ordered.
Gausman has been incredible this year with 54 strikeouts to just two walks and should be able to go deep into the game. The Jays have won the first two games of the series 3-0 and 6-2. The value is all on the run line here and I will take it.
MLB Expert Pick #1 for Blue Jays-Mariners: Blue Jays -1.5 for 1.1 RW buck (BetMGM -110)
MLB Expert Pick #2 for Blue Jays-Mariners: Mariners under 2.5 runs for 1 RW buck (BetMGM +110)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets 7:10 pm EDT
The Mets have been a dominant team at home in the first five innings and add in Max Scherzer which makes for an attractive play. The Mets are 11-1-5 at home in the F5.
Scherzer has a great history against the Cardinals. In the last three starts, he has 32 strikeouts to just two walks and no earned runs allowed. Four out of the five games in this series have been seven runs or less.