MLB Picks Today: MLB Best Bets for Saturday, June 18
RotoWire.com's Juan Carlos Blanco identifies his MLB bets and MLB player props to target today.
Last article: 4-0 (+4.00 RW Bucks)
Season Record: 30-36-4 (-10.64 RW Bucks)
After my first undefeated ledger of the season, I'll look to build on the success with one NL afternoon battle and an intriguing interleague night clash that features a particularly hot-hitting team facing an elite pitcher.
Milwaukee Brewers 
at Cincinnati Reds
Starting Pitchers: Jason Alexander vs. Graham Ashcraft
Alexander sports a rather deceiving 2.16 ERA, as it's accompanied by a 1.74 WHIP, .295 xBA and 4.60 xERA. The long-time minor-leaguer has done a very good job limiting hard contact as evidenced by the 3.3 percent barrel rate and 21.7 percent sweet spot rate he's yielded, but his propensity for putting men on and pitching to contact (21 hits allowed in 16.2 innings) leaves him perpetually flirting with danger. He has a thorny matchup Saturday that could well see some of his overdue regression come to pass, as Cincy sports a 9.4 percent walk rate, .272 average, .331 wOBA and 6.4 wRAA against righties at home in the last month. What's more, the Reds are averaging the sixth-most runs per first five innings per home game (3.1).
Ashcraft boasts a 3-0 mark, 2.22 ERA and 1.02 WHIP, and unlike his opposite number Saturday, his numbers stand up to scrutiny a bit better. The young righty is yielding a tiny 3.2 percent barrel rate in his own right, and he's also carrying a .301 xwOBA and 3.29 xERA. Ashcraft has already been battle-tested by facing the Blue Jays and Giants in the first two starts of his career back in late May, and he's encouraging displayed the same penchant for keeping the ball in the park that he did during a minors career in which he surrendered a mere six homers in 197.1 innings – in his first 28.1 big-league frames, he's only been tagged for two round-trippers.
MLB Best Bets for Brewers at Reds
The Pick: Reds -0.5- 1st 5 innings (+115 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
Secondary Pick: Reds Over 2.5 runs – 1st 5 innings (+105 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
Cleveland Guardians 
at Los Angeles Dodgers 
Starting Pitchers: Cal Quantrill vs. Julio Urias
Quantrill's surface numbers are all solid, but there are big gulfs between his .292 wOBA and .338 xwOBA, as well as between his 3.38 ERA and 4.24 xERA. Additionally, an 8.1 percent walk rate combined with a 14.8 percent strikeout rate seems like a recipe for trouble, especially against a Dodgers team that's averaging the third-most walks (3.8) and fourth-most runs (5.1) per home game. L.A. has also been particularly tough against right-handers at home, posting a .336 wOBA and 15.5 wRAA in that split. The Blue Crew is also ranked in the top half of MLB with 2.9 runs per first five innings per home game.
Urias may sport a 3-6 record, but it's belied by a host of other metrics that include a 2.80 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, .232 xBA and .304 xwOBA, along with a very modest 27.7 percent hard-hit rate allowed. The left-hander has been a bit more hittable at home, but the Guardians haven't exactly been an intimidating bunch against southpaws on the road recently despite their very strong play, posting a .287 wOBA, .109 ISO and -3.7 wRAA in that split.
MLB Best Bets for Guardians at Dodgers
The Pick: Dodgers -0.5 - 1st 5 innings (-150 on BetMGM Sportsbook) for 1.50 RW Bucks
Secondary Pick: ML/Total Runs Parlay: Dodgers and Under 8.5 runs (+165) for 1 RW Buck
MLB Best Bets Today Recap
- Reds -0.5- 1st 5 innings (+115 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
- Reds Over 2.5 runs – 1st 5 innings (+105 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
- Dodgers -0.5 - 1st 5 innings (-150 on BetMGM Sportsbook) for 1.50 RW Bucks
- ML/Total Runs Parlay: Dodgers and Under 8.5 runs (+165) for 1 RW Buck
Visit RotoWire all season long for exclusive sports betting picks from our group of handicappers with their expert MLB picks each day of the campaign. Remember that betting apps vary in terms of odds and available player props, so we have an easy-to-use odds page that allows you to shop for the best lines available at FanDuel Sportsbook.
