This article is part of our PrizePicks MLB series.
One of the best parts about making picks on PrizePicks is that we typically have 30 teams in action and hundreds of props to pick from, but that's no longer the case. With only four teams remaining, we have limited selections available. The good news is that some of these props stick out like a sore thumb, with many of the pitching options looking like the best plays on this slate. With that in mind, let's get started with a slinger from Seattle.
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George Kirby, SEA vs. TOR: More Than 27.5 Fantasy Score
Kirby just had one of the worst years of his career behind a 4.21 ERA and 1.19 WHIP, but that's telling of how special this guy has been. We're talking about a right-hander who has a 3.58 career ERA and 1.11 WHIP. That's the ace we saw in the second half, with Kirby scoring at least 30 fantasy points in eight of his final 12 regular-season starts. That's carried over into the postseason, with Kirby collecting 30 and 33 fantasy points in his two starts.
The only reason this prop is below 30 fantasy points is because of a slow start to the season, but Kirby was unstoppable in Seattle all season. He had a 2.77 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 10.1 K/9 rate across his last 11 starts. That's no surprise since it's one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in the sport, with Kirby dropping 37 fantasy points in his last home start against the Blue Jays. It's clearly one of the scariest lineups around, but Kirby never gets touched up at home.
Freddy Peralta, MIL at LAD: More Than 5.5 Strikeouts
It's risky to use any pitcher against the Dodgers, but this 5.5 total is clearly baked into that variable. Peralta has been closer to 6.5 strikeouts throughout most of the season, and facing this daunting Dodgers lineup is the only reason it's so low. Peralta picked up at least six Ks in both postseason starts while clearing this total in 11 of his last 12 starts.
It's rare to see a prop be available that's cleared on 11 of 12 occasions, but that's what happens when you face a challenging lineup. It's not as scary as you'd think, though, because they have one of the weaker bottom-half lineups of the remaining playoff teams. In their two matchups this season, Peralta posted a 3.27 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 9.0 K/9 rate. That looks even better since LA has the second-worst K rate of the four remaining teams.
Shane Bieber, TOR at SEA: Less Than 5.0 Strikeouts
The statistics from Seattle are nothing special, but this is a scary offense since the trade deadline acquisitions. That was crystal clear when they dropped 10 runs on Monday and they have scored at least three runs in seven of eight postseason games. That's why they finished as a Top 10 offense in the second half, and you know these guys will be hungry in a home game against Bieber.
Bieber is one of the most talented pitchers in baseball, but his strikeout stuff hasn't been the same since coming off the IL. The righty made only seven starts during the regular season, registering a 4.03 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 6.8 K/9 rate across his last five outings. That's a scary K rate to clear five strikeouts against this stingy Seattle lineup, especially since Bieber has five or fewer strikeouts in six straight outings. We're also talking about a Toronto team staring down an 0-2 deficit, so the leash could be extremely short if Bieber shows any blips on the radar.
Jorge Polanco, SEA vs. TOR: More Than 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBI
We had to get at least one bat in here, so let's ride Polanco. If you've been reading my articles over the last two months, you know just how highly I think of this guy. He's quietly been one of the best hitters in baseball during that span, tallying a .338 AVG, .688 SLG and 1.075 OPS across his final 32 regular-season games. He also had a .386 AVG and 1.236 OPS at home while moving up to the cleanup spot.
He's carried that fantastic form into these playoffs, clearing this prop in four of his last six outings. Polanco also has three dingers and eight RBI in that span while posting better career splits against righties. This second baseman has a .786 career OPS against right-handers and faces the worst one on this slate.
What plays are the RotoWire baseball experts dialing in on? Check out our free MLB betting picks for all of today's top plays!
