Mound Musings: Know When to Fold ‘Em

I talk often about avoiding pitchers who enjoy somewhat (sometimes) surprising success early in the season, and then collapse into a tailspin of fantasy flames as the year goes on. If you can avoid those guys, or deal them away before they burst into those flames, you'll be in a position to do well in your league. It's get a little trickier to predict turnarounds – both good and bad – as the pitchers accumulate more innings. He's still pitching well. Is he for real? Or, he's been awful, can he get it together?

This week, I would like to feature a few pitchers who have solid numbers almost three months into the season, but they also qualify as pitchers who haven't quite convinced me it's going to last. Next week, we'll flip the coin and I'll throw out some pitchers who have been battered way too often in the early months of 2015, but may be ready to turn the corner and give their fantasy team a boost. After all, you gotta know when to hold 'em and know when to fold 'em.

 To start, let's take a look at some arms to stay away from going forward:

Some selected pitchers I would worry about in the second half:

Lance Lynn (St. Louis) – Lynn is just returning from a forearm injury, and that might actually help him. He pretty consistently wears down as the season progresses, so perhaps the break at this point is the year is a benefit. So far, he has been a little too hittable for my liking which has been the case in previous seasons, but usually not this early. He's averaging just over a strikeout per inning, but his fastball velocity is down a tick – something I find even more concerning when a pitcher has a tendency to run out of gas later in the season. Lynn has to stay sharp with his command, and I haven't seen that so I am concerned he might struggle even more than usual in the second half. He has a BABIP and FIP that suggest improvement, but I am not convinced.

Shelby Miller (Atlanta) – Unlike Lynn, Miller has an FIP and BABIP that suggest some regression is in his future, and I agree. Miller has a sparkling 1.05 WHIP with a 1.99 ERA, but there are signs that could be in jeopardy. Miller has come a long way in the past couple of years and is showing he can learn to pitch. Unfortunately, he can still fall in love with his fastball, and while it's a good one averaging 94 mph, he can sometimes overthrow and get into trouble when it straightens out. The significant improvement in his composure and pitch selection has cost him strikeouts, but it has made him a better pitcher. I don't anticipate a collapse, but matching his numbers to date will be tough.

Chris Heston (San Francisco) – Heston has seven wins, and a no-hitter in his book so far this year so he has been a popular pick up off the waiver wire. That should be the first warning sign – why was he on the waiver wire? Heston makes a good spot starter who can fill in when you need an arm, but overexposure of his rather pedestrian stuff will likely come back to haunt him. His fastball only averages 89 mph, and his secondary stuff is similarly mediocre, something that makes him especially vulnerable to lefty swingers. Basically, Heston is the type of pitcher who is likely to struggle as the league builds a book on him. Tim Hudson may need a rest, but Matt Cain and Jake Peavy are expected back soon so his rotation spot could be at risk. It might be just in time.

Nick Martinez (Texas) – Here's another guy who got off to a solid start to the season, but who has already shown signs of coming back to Earth. Like Heston, Martinez is more of a soft-tosser, especially this year as he has show a rather significant drop in fastball velocity. He has been somewhat backwards, struggling against right-handed hitters and pitching much better on the road, but tough times at home won't get any easier as the temperatures heat up in Arlington. He has benefited from a very low BABIP and he has not allowed home runs with the frequency he did last season. But, he hasn't pitched through the hot summer when the ball flies. Injuries have forced the Rangers to keep Martinez in the rotation last season and so far this year. He's done reasonably well, but not enough to be a fantasy asset overall. He's not a strikeout pitcher so owners in your league may not be all that impressed, however his 2.77 ERA for a team that is playing well might have offered some appeal. I don't see it lasting.

Dallas Keuchel (Houston) – Here's the name some people might question. Keuchel had a big year in 2014, and so far this year, it's been more of the same with eight wins, and an 0.98 WHIP to go with a 2.35 ERA. In fact, those peripherals are better than last season. I was skeptical last year, and I still feel this is a house of cards with a strong breeze on the way. Keuchel is also a soft-tosser, but he has a bit better secondary stuff, and at times, better command. That's much of the concern. There have been innings where teams are beginning to lay off pitches out of the zone. For example, in a start against Seattle, he walked four in one inning. That's not going to happen too often, but the pitches were out of the zone, and hitters weren't biting. If that continues, Keuchel doesn't have the raw stuff to pitch around too many baserunners. If they continue to lay off the fringy pitches, his .236 BABIP will almost assuredly jump significantly, and in a hitter-friendly home park, his ERA won't be far behind.

Some Notable Rotation Ramblings:

• The Rays have something to look forward to. Both Jake Odorizzi and Matt Mooreare getting close to returning from the disabled list, and that could be a huge boost to the team with potential opportunities for fantasy owners. I'm a bit concerned about Moore's command right out of the gate, but the upside is there.
• I watched part ofJake Arrieta's start against Minnesota last weekend, and while I was watching to see if I could note reasons for his on and off struggles, he just came out and pitched like an ace. He did look more comfortable on the mound and I am wondering if he possibly tweaked his mechanics.
• I'm going to take this opportunity to give a call to one of my all-time favorites, Mark Buehrle. Okay, he's not going to give you a pile of strikeouts and his ERA is usually just so-so, but he gives you innings, and he keeps the Jays in games. With that offense, that could translate into a lot of wins. He's a rock.
• Patrick Corbin is perhaps the pitcher I am most interested in tracking when he comes back from 2014 Tommy John surgery. I was extremely impressed with him before the elbow injury, and I would like to see him pick up where he left off. A return in early July is anticipated.
• Another pitcher I have followed with interest for some time is Anthony Ranaudo. He made a spot start for Texas a few days ago, and looked good. He was sent back down after the outing, but if a longer term rotation opportunity arises, he could be a nice pick-up. Just a bit better command would make him tough.
• Stephen Strasburg returned to the hill on Tuesday night, after missing some time with a neck injury. I have to say he looked better than I have seen him pitch in a long time. His fastball was 96-97, and he stayed within himself which meant better command of a very brisk breaking ball. Very impressive.

Endgame Odyssey:

The Blue Jays closer situation is getting more and more interesting. Brett Cecil has been awful and is likely due for a break from closing. Most predictions for a replacement focus on young Roberto Osuna, but I am also watching the usage of Liam Hendriks and Steve Delabar. There is talk that Aaron Sanchez could return as a reliever, so that's yet another possibility. Would they go that direction? In Arizona the D'backs sent Addison Reed to Triple-A after he continued to display total inconsistency. Right now Brad Ziegler is the guy, but Enrique Burgos is now back and could challenge for the job. Just when you thoughts the Rays end game plans were finalized, Jake McGee began pitching in the eighth innings to set up righty Brad Boxbergerwhowas back to closing. I still believe McGee will eventually end up with the job. The Cubs appear to be biding their time. They've made it fairly clear they lack confidence in Hector Rondon at this point, and they have used Jason Motte here and there, but their usage pattern suggests they may be hoping for Rafael Soriano to get into game shape soon. Detroit's Joakim Soria has been serving up gopher balls lately, but most have come in non-save situations. I wouldn't be too concerned at this point, but it is worth watching when he does have a chance to close out games. I spoke above about Chris Heston, Matt Cain, and Jake Peavy, and the impact the latter two could have on the Giants' rotation. Another scenario might have Tim Lincecummoving to the bullpen where he might, underline might, find his way into the closer role. Seattle pulled Fernando Rodney and installed Carson Smith as their closer. Every successive strong outing by Smith just solidifies the move.