The RotoWire 200: 2016 Overall Rankings

The RotoWire 200: 2016 Overall Rankings

This article is part of our The RotoWire 200 series.

This is our top 200 for 12-team, mixed-league drafts. Here's a few guidelines on how this list is compiled:

- I'm assuming it's a standard 5x5 league.

- Though it doesn't strictly hew to our projected auction values, it's pretty close. Occasionally draft dynamics will push a player up or down beyond what his stats are worth. To that end, these players are listed in order of where I think they should rank, without regard to ADP. To the extent that there are some early outliers, I've tried to note them in the comments. I do operate under the assumption of a 68-32 hitter-pitcher split in valuing the players.

- A player needs to have played at least 20 games at the position last year to qualify there this year, or if he was a minor leaguer it would be at the position where he played the most last year.

- 200 isn't really that deep. We'll come out with a top 350 later on, but this version is going into the magazine, where 200 is a tidy number. In a similar vein, the format necessarily requires shorter comments. For more insight, read the player's outlooks, which are now up on the site.

1. Mike Trout (LAA – OF) Trout is still at the top of my list, but the gap has narrowed once again.
2. Paul Goldschmidt (AZ – 1B) Goldschmidt gets the nod ahead of Harper because of his stolen bases.
3. Bryce Harper (WAS – OF) Hopefully

This is our top 200 for 12-team, mixed-league drafts. Here's a few guidelines on how this list is compiled:

- I'm assuming it's a standard 5x5 league.

- Though it doesn't strictly hew to our projected auction values, it's pretty close. Occasionally draft dynamics will push a player up or down beyond what his stats are worth. To that end, these players are listed in order of where I think they should rank, without regard to ADP. To the extent that there are some early outliers, I've tried to note them in the comments. I do operate under the assumption of a 68-32 hitter-pitcher split in valuing the players.

- A player needs to have played at least 20 games at the position last year to qualify there this year, or if he was a minor leaguer it would be at the position where he played the most last year.

- 200 isn't really that deep. We'll come out with a top 350 later on, but this version is going into the magazine, where 200 is a tidy number. In a similar vein, the format necessarily requires shorter comments. For more insight, read the player's outlooks, which are now up on the site.

1. Mike Trout (LAA – OF) Trout is still at the top of my list, but the gap has narrowed once again.
2. Paul Goldschmidt (AZ – 1B) Goldschmidt gets the nod ahead of Harper because of his stolen bases.
3. Bryce Harper (WAS – OF) Hopefully Harper vs. Trout will be a great debate for a decade.
4. Clayton Kershaw (LAD – SP) What more do you need to see to take Kershaw in the first round?
5. Manny Machado (BAL – 3B) Machado improved uniformly in 2015 and still might have another leap.
6. Nolan Arenado (COL – 3B) Arenado vs. Machado is another fantastic debate.
7. Josh Donaldson (TOR – 3B) The reigning AL MVP scored a whopping 122 runs in 2015.
8. Carlos Correa (HOU – SS) Correa is a rare exception to my disinclination to use positional scarcity.
9. Giancarlo Stanton (MIA – OF) One of these years Stanton is going to hit 50 homers in 145 games.
10. Andrew McCutchen (PIT – OF) McCutchen fell a little lower because of his decline in stolen bases.
11. Anthony Rizzo (CHC – 1B) Rizzo has been hit by 45 pitches over the last two seasons.
12. A.J. Pollock (AZ – OF) Pollock could trade some speed for power this season.
13. Miguel Cabrera (DET – 1B) Still the best high-average power option in the game, but health is a worry.
14. Kris Bryant (CHC – 3B) Bryant will probably shatter the 30-homer and 200-K barriers this year.
15. Max Scherzer (WAS – SP) Scherzer should get the wins that were expected in 2015 this year.
16. Jose Altuve (HOU – 2B) Altuve traded some speed for power last year – is that sustainable?
17. Jake Arrieta (CHC – SP) My only concern is the heavy workload and velocity loss in the playoffs.
18. Jose Bautista (TOR – OF) The only downside to taking Bautista here is the lower batting average.
19. Chris Davis (FA – 1B/OF) Twenty nine of Davis' 47 homers came in Baltimore last year.
20. Edwin Encarnacion (TOR – 1B) Encarnacion had hernia surgery in October, should be ready by March.
21. Starling Marte (PIT – OF) Marte is starting to add more power as he matures physically.
22. Buster Posey (SF – C) Higher than I normally have him, due the dearth of quality catchers.
23. Jose Abreu (CWS – 1B) This is probably as good as it gets, though that's not bad.
24. Dee Gordon (MIA – 2B) Won't hit .333 again, but doesn't need to do so to earn this spot.
25. Mookie Betts (BOS – OF) With a full season batting leadoff, 100 runs should be a cinch for Betts.
26. George Springer (HOU – OF) Is Springer injury-prone or just unlucky? I vote the latter.
27. Ryan Braun (MIL – OF) Watch for reports on Braun's back as you approach Draft Day.
28. J.D. Martinez (DET – OF) Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.
29. David Price (BOS – SP) Price has a 1.95 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in 74 innings at Fenway Park.
30. Madison Bumgarner (SF – SP) Bumgarner defied those that expected a drop following 2014 workload.
31. Chris Sale (CWS – SP) Sale's shaky September might create a buying opportunity.
32. Jose Fernandez (MIA – SP) Great in his return, despite a .355 BABIP against.
33. Zack Greinke (AZ – SP) Greinke shocked many by signing with Arizona, but $206 million speaks loudly.
34. Charlie Blackmon (COL – OF) Blackmon has a huge home/road split, but he's not going anywhere.
35. Jacob deGrom (NYM – SP) DeGrom walked five fewer batters in Year 2 despite throwing 51 more innings.
36. Nelson Cruz (SEA – OF) I was flat-out wrong about Cruz in 2015, both with performance and health.
37. Gerrit Cole (PIT – SP) Cole sometimes gets overlooked among the elite, but he belongs.
38. Joey Votto (CIN – 1B) It's possible that Votto could walk 150 times this year if he stays healthy.
39. Robinson Cano (SEA – 2B) Cano played through a thumb injury and sports hernia in 2015.
40. Yoenis Cespedes (FA – OF) Is Cespedes' best season repeatable, or a walk-year fluke?
41. Jason Kipnis (CLE – 2B) Kipnis hit for a great average, but where did the power go?
42. Carlos Gonzalez (COL – OF) CarGo played in a career-high 153 games, but had just two steals.
43. Matt Harvey (NYM – SP) The kid gloves could come off this year – as a result, this ranking might be low.
44. Stephen Strasburg (WAS – SP) Has a player ever been hated so much for non-scandalous reasons?
45. Todd Frazier (CWS – 3B) Leaving Cincy will hurt, but at least Frazier landed in another good park.
46. Kyle Schwarber (CHC – C/OF) This might be Schwarber's last year behind the plate.
47. Corey Kluber (CLE – SP) Kluber regressed less than his win-loss record indicated.
48. Brian Dozier (MIN – 2B) Second half collapses unfortunately have been a way of life for Dozier.
49. Xander Bogaerts (BOS – SS) Bogaerts has a lot of ADP helium – this might not get him.
50. Adrian Gonzalez (LAD – 1B) Gonzalez is one of the better "low-ceiling, high-floor" players.
51. Justin Upton (FA – OF) Upton hit better at Petco than on the road last year.
52. Carlos Gomez (HOU – OF) Gomez is an excellent buy-low candidate after missing 47 games last year.
53. Yasiel Puig (LAD – OF) Speaking of buying low – former Puig owners will not be rational about him.
54. Dallas Keuchel (HOU –SP) Keuchel's strikeout rate spiked in his breakout 2015 season.
55. Troy Tulowitzki (TOR – SS) Tulowitzki was already slumping before cracking his shoulder blade.
56. Lorenzo Cain (KC – OF) Cain's breakout seems real – he improved his contact rate by five percent.
57. Felix Hernandez (SEA – SP) King Felix was reduced to jester status by the Red Sox and Astros in 2015.
58. Sonny Gray (OAK – SP) One reason to be wary – Gray had a 6.84 ERA in his last 30 days.
59. Wade Davis (KC – RP) – Still amazing, but Davis' strikeout rate dropped a little last year.
60. Eric Hosmer (KC – 1B) – Does Hosmer have one more power spike in him or is this his peak?
61. Miguel Sano (MIN – DH) Sano played just nine games at third base last year – will he get 20 in 2016?
62. Freddie Freeman (ATL – 1B) Freeman will commiserate with Joey Votto regarding their lesser teammates.
63. Noah Syndergaard (NYM – SP) Averaged 97.1 mph on his fastball in his rookie season.
64. Chris Archer (TB – SP) Archer struggled in September against an AL East slate.
65. Albert Pujols (LAA – 1B) Pujols could miss the start of the season following November foot surgery.
66. Johnny Cueto (SF – SP) Cueto did well to land in San Francisco.
67. Cole Hamels (TEX – SP) Hamels' trade to the Rangers spurred an incredible playoff run.
68. Prince Fielder (TEX – DH) Fielder fell two games short of being 1B-eligible in traditional leagues.
69. Adam Jones (BAL – OF) Jones never fully recovered from back issues in 2015.
70. Jason Heyward (CHC – OF) Heyward is a classic 'better in real life than roto' player.
71. Kenley Jansen (LAD – RP) Will the Dodgers get some help to reach the ninth inning this year?
72. David Ortiz (BOS – DH) Possibly could play less in his final year.
73. Aroldis Chapman (NYY – RP) Chapman is the Yankees' likely closer after the trade.
74. Kyle Seager (SEA – 3B) Seager is likely to stick with the M's because of his contract.
75. David Robertson (CWS – RP) Robertson had some puzzling stretches but still had his best K/BB season.
76. Craig Kimbrel (BOS – RP) The move to the AL might hurt Kimbrel a little bit.
77. Carlos Carrasco (CLE – SP) Are Carrasco's home struggles in 2015 fact or fluke?
78. Matt Carpenter (STL – 3B) Carpenter was a late-blooming prospect with late-blooming power.
79. Mark Melancon (PIT – RP) Melancon regained some of his velocity after a troubling April.
80. Danny Salazar (CLE – SP) Salazar is finally in the Indians' rotation to stay.
81. Ian Kinsler (DET – 2B) Kinsler had some erosion of skills in 2015 – be wary of paying full price.
82. Corey Dickerson (COL – OF) Dickerson's plantar fasciitis could remain an issue this year.
83. Francisco Lindor (CLE – SS) Lindor's bat caught up with his glove at the big league level.
84. Anthony Rendon (WAS – 2B/3B) Rendon is expected to play full-time at third base this year.
85. Adrian Beltre (TEX – 3B) Beltre played through a torn thumb ligament over the second half of 2015.
86. Hunter Pence (SF – OF) A broken forearm and an oblique strain ruined Pence's 2015 season.
87. Maikel Franco (PHI – 3B) Franco managed the strike zone very well in his rookie season.
88. Jorge Soler (CHC – OF) There's a lot of pressure on Soler to produce right away this season.
89. Shin-Soo Choo (TEX – OF) Great second half, but the steals could be gone forever.
90. Corey Seager (LAD – SS) Seager's ADP is prohibitively priced for my liking.
91. Kole Calhoun (LAA – OF) Calhoun really benefits from hitting directly in front of Mike Trout.
92. Michael Wacha (STL – SP) Wacha had a 7.88 ERA in September, perhaps lowering his draft price.
93. Brett Gardner (NYY – OF) Gardner has settled in as a 20-SB player, rather than one who could steal 40.
94. DJ LeMahieu (COL – 2B) LeMahieu started batting higher in the order after the Tulo trade.
95. Kolten Wong (STL – 2B) Once again, where he hits in the order will determine his value.
96. Hanley Ramirez (BOS – OF) The Red Sox plan to play Ramirez at first base this season.
97. Gregory Polanco (PIT – OF) Progress has been slow, but the power is going to come.
98. Billy Hamilton (CIN – OF) Got better on the basepaths but worse at the plate last year.
99. Evan Longoria (TB – 3B) Longo started to hit with some power in September – I'm optimistic.
100. Jon Lester (CHC – SP) He might underperform his FIP regularly because he can't hold runners at all.
101. Brian McCann (NYY – C) McCann appears to be locked in as a low-average slugger.
102. Zach Britton (BAL – RP) Britton dramatically improved his strikeout rate in 2015.
103. Brandon Crawford (SF – SS) Crawford has improved his ISO five years in a row.
104. Matt Kemp (SD – OF) Kemp's season ended early due to a finger tendon injury.
105. Dustin Pedroia (BOS – 2B) The Red Sox plan to give Pedroia more planned off days.
106. Rougned Odor (TEX – 2B) If you believe in Odor's power potential, this could be too low for him.
107. Ben Zobrist (CHC – 2B/OF) Should significantly increase his runs scored with the Cubs.
108. Jacoby Ellsbury (NYY – OF) Ellsbury is a great buy-low candidate following his second half collapse.
109. Brandon Belt (SF – 1B) Belt has been cleared of all the post-concussion symptoms that ended his 2015.
110. Jonathan Lucroy (MIL – C) Lucroy will get ABs at first base, making him more valuable than most catchers.
111. Adam Eaton (CWS – OF) Eaton hit for more power than most expected and ran less.
112. Christian Yelich (MIA – OF) Yelich came on strong after returning, but still hasn't hit for power.
113. Mitch Moreland (TEX – 1B) If you squint you can see 30-homer potential from Moreland.
114. Mike Moustakas (KC – 3B) Moustakas and Hosmer clicked at the right time for the Royals.
115. Jeurys Familia (NYM – RP) Familia's three World Series blown saves are misleading – invest now.
116. Trevor Rosenthal (STL – RP) Rosenthal shaved his walk rate to a mere mediocre level in 2015.
117. Tyson Ross (SD – SP) Ross' control keeps him from enjoying a true breakout season.
118. Marcus Stroman (TOR – SP) Is helium transferrable from one year to the next?
119. Ian Desmond (FA – SS) Will he be asked to move to second base on his new team?
120. Jose Reyes (COL – SS) Awaiting discipline from MLB on a domestic violence accusation.
121. Kevin Pillar (TOR – OF) Started the year as a backup to Dalton Pompey, ended as a Gold Glover.
122. Ben Revere (WAS – OF) Revere should bat high in the order under manager Dusty Baker.
123. Billy Burns (OAK – OF) Burns has the potential to steal 40 bases in a full season.
124. Logan Forsythe (TB – 2B) Who else besides the Rays had the Forsythe to see this coming?
125. Daniel Murphy (WAS – 2B/3B) Murphy has become an extreme contact hitter, with a 92% contact rate.
126. David Peralta (AZ – OF) Watch for reports on Peralta's wrist this spring.
127. Josh Reddick (OAK – OF) Reddick's counting stats get hurt by his team context.
128. Alex Gordon (KC – OF) Gordon's on-base and defensive skills don't translate well in fantasy.
129. Cody Allen (CLE – RP) With a handful fewer walks Allen would graduate in to the elite closer tier.
130. Francisco Liriano (PIT – SP) For two years running Liriano has been significantly better on the road.
131. Michael Brantley (CLE – OF) Brantley is expected to miss the start of 2016 with a shoulder injury.
132. Steven Matz (NYM – SP) Matz is cheaper than his teammates but has a similar ceiling.
133. Huston Street (LAA – RP) Street has had more than 15 saves every year of his 11-season career.
134. Curtis Granderson (NYM – OF) Granderson had surgery to repair a torn thumb ligament in November.
135. Nick Castellanos (DET – 3B) In position to have a breakout season in a still-loaded Tigers lineup.
136. Garrett Richards (LAA – SP) Richards was striking out a batter per inning over the last two months.
137. Carlos Santana (CLE – 1B) Santana had a career-low .164 ISO last season.
138. Lucas Duda (NYM – 1B) Duda had a reverse platoon split in 2015, reversing his past history.
139. Russell Martin (TOR – C) Can Martin string together a high-average and 20-homer season at once?
140. Jordan Zimmermann (DET – SP) I'm wary of Zimmermann's move to the AL Central from the NL East.
141. Salvador Perez (KC – C) Perez has traded what little batting eye he has for power.
142. Travis d'Arnaud (NYM – C) The threat of Kevin Plawecki stealing at-bats is just a nominal one.
143. Elvis Andrus (TEX – SS) This is who Andrus is – there's no growth coming.
144. Jhonny Peralta (STL – SS) The Cardinals are hoping to squeeze another above-average year from him.
145. Shelby Miller (AZ – SP) So underrated by win-loss record, so overrated by the Diamondbacks.
146. Starlin Castro (NYY – SS/2B) Traded to the Yankees, where he should start at second base.
147. Addison Russell (CHC – SS/2B) Russell's BA remains a risk given his 69% contact rate last year.
148. Neil Walker (NYM – 2B) The Walker-Niese swap made perfect sense for the Mets.
149. Julio Teheran (ATL – SP) Finished strong, maintained velocity and strikeout rate – good buy low.
150. Dexter Fowler (FA – OF) Fowler has spent his entire career in good hitting ballparks.
151. Alex Rodriguez (NYY – DH) A-Rod could get more days off given Yanks' first base and outfield logjam.
152. James Shields (SD – SP) Shields single-handedly made Petco a positive HR park, giving up 19 there.
153. Lance McCullers (HOU – SP) McCullers' minor league numbers suggest a spike in strikeouts.
154. Chris Colabello (TOR – 1B/OF) Colabello raked against lefties and righties alike last year.
155. Masahiro Tanaka (NYY – SP) Tanaka is coming off October arthroscopic elbow surgery.
156. Michael Conforto (NYM – OF) The Mets gave Conforto only 14 at-bats against lefties last year.
157. Mark Teixeira (NYY – 1B) Can the Yankees find a way to play both Teixeira and Bird?
158. Adam Lind (SEA – 1B) The trade to Seattle definitely hurts Lind's value.
159. Matt Holliday (STL – OF) Could this be Holliday's last season, at least in the NL?
160. Jay Bruce (CIN – OF) Bruce is on the trade market, but surprisingly isn't that much better at home.
161. Joc Pederson (LAD – OF) Pederson failed to counter adjustments made by opposing pitchers.
162. Brandon Phillips (CIN – 2B) Phillips' stolen bases caught me by surprise, but they won't repeat.
163. Adam Wainwright (STL – SP) Betting against Wainwright hasn't usually worked, but here we are.
164. John Lackey (CHC – SP) Landing in Chicago was a good spot for Lackey.
165. Joe Panik (SF – 2B) Panik's season-ending back injury pushed him down 30-40 spots for 2016.
166. Roberto Osuna (TOR – RP) The only concern with Osuna is whether he stays as a closer.
167. A.J. Ramos (MIA – RP) Great strikeout rate, somewhat high walk rate.
168. Ken Giles (HOU – RP) The Astros paid a ton for him to be an elite closer.
169. Glen Perkins (MIN – RP) Back and neck injuries ruined the end of his 2015 season.
170. Yu Darvish (TEX – SP) Darvish had Tommy John surgery in mid-March and could miss the start of 2016.
171. Scott Kazmir (LAD – SP) Kazmir was a bit of a flop in Houston – landing in Los Angeles should work.
172. Kenta Maeda (LAD – SP) Maeda took very little guaranteed money in an 8-year deal with the Dodgers.
173. Randal Grichuk (STL – OF) Great power, but health and batting eye are concerns.
174. Howie Kendrick (FA – 2B) Kendrick performs consistently on the same rate – only health varies.
175. Cameron Maybin (DET – OF) Maybin is back where he began his career in Detroit.
176. Michael Pineda (NYY – SP) Pineda gave up 16 homers in Yankee Stadium, just five on the road.
177. Kendrys Morales (KC – DH) Everything broke perfectly for Morales in 2015 – expect some regression.
178. Evan Gattis (HOU – DH) Gattis won't hit 11 more triples the rest of his career.
179. Francisco Rodriguez (DET – RP) Traded to the Tigers in the offseason – still has a great changeup.
180. Carlos Beltran (NYY – OF) Beltran could give way to Aaron Hicks for defense late in games.
181. Stephen Vogt (OAK – C) Vogt's overall numbers were strong despite a terrible finish.
182. Trevor Plouffe (MIN – 3B) The Twins appear more likely to move Sano to the outfield than Plouffe.
183. Jung-Ho Kang (PIT – SS/3B) Kang might miss Opening Day due to his fractured tibia.
184. Dellin Betances (NYY – RP) Betances gets more strikeouts than many starters in half as many innings.
185. Devin Mesoraco (CIN – C) Mesoraco's rehab from hip surgery is on schedule.
186. David Wright (NYM – 3B) Wright ranks higher in leagues where replacement value is better.
187. Hisashi Iwakuma (SEA – SP) Failed a physical with the Dodgers and landed back with the Mariners.
188. Carlos Martinez (STL – SP) Martinez's season ended with a sore shoulder, making him tough to rank.
189. Pablo Sandoval (BOS – 3B) Sandoval developed a massive split, failing to hit lefties last year.
190. Collin McHugh (HOU – SP) McHugh's strikeout rate dropped from 25.4% to 19.9%.
191. Justin Turner (LAD – 3B) Turner had microfracture knee surgery in November.
192. Jake Odorizzi (TB – SP) Odorizzi has a bit of a reverse platoon split, striking out more lefties.
193. Justin Verlander (DET – SP) Verlander had some recovery, though not all the way back.
194. Santiago Casilla (SF – RP) Casilla is among the shakier known closers – Hunter Strickland looms.
195. Yan Gomes (CLE – C) Gomes never fully recovered from his April knee injury.
196. Melky Cabrera (CWS – OF) One of the many underachievers for the White Sox in 2015.
197. Byron Buxton (MIN – OF) This is a conservative rank – I could see a big breakout.
198. Taijuan Walker (SEA – SP) Walker had a 3.63 ERA and 0.98 WHIP over the last two months.
199. Raisel Iglesias (CIN – SP) Already a 'helium' guy and we haven't had our first draft that counts.
200. Drew Smyly (TB – SP) Exciting stuff, but a scary health history depresses Smyly's ranking.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jeff Erickson
Jeff Erickson is a co-founder of RotoWire and the only two-time winner of Baseball Writer of the Year from the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. He's also in the FSWA Hall of Fame. He roots for the Reds, Bengals, Red Wings, Pacers and Northwestern University (the real NU).
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