The Saber's Edge: Making Sense of Pitch Spin Values

The Saber's Edge: Making Sense of Pitch Spin Values

This article is part of our The Saber's Edge series.

The folks at MLB Advanced Media have a great new statistic they have pushed out recently — pitch spin rate. Just a few days ago, they showed that Yu Darvish's four-seam fastball has one of the league's highest spin rates. In 2013, we didn't need to know Darvish's spin rate to understand his fastball was a good pitch with him striking out 11.4 batters per nine innings. I can understand why someone could be skeptical of spin rates. I am. The following is a shallow dive into a deep topic to help get a bit of an understanding of spin rates and what information can be useful.

What does the spin rate actually tell us that we already don't know with sites like FanGraphs and BrooksBaseball having a ton of information on each pitch? Besides the spin rate, other factors go into the quality of a pitch like velocity, location, deception, release point and other pitches in the pitcher's arsenal. Additionally, some work has already been done on the subject by FanGraphs' Jonah Pemstein in a two-part series. For each pitch type, he found the contact rate, swing rate, groundball rate, pop-up rate, BABIP and overall value. The post was extremely information heavy, but few new conclusions were provided.

I will start my own study with the basics with the two most common pitches getting mentioned, four-seam fastball and curveballs.

Effects of Spin Rate on Four-Seam Fastballs

The basic fastball is a great place to start because

The folks at MLB Advanced Media have a great new statistic they have pushed out recently — pitch spin rate. Just a few days ago, they showed that Yu Darvish's four-seam fastball has one of the league's highest spin rates. In 2013, we didn't need to know Darvish's spin rate to understand his fastball was a good pitch with him striking out 11.4 batters per nine innings. I can understand why someone could be skeptical of spin rates. I am. The following is a shallow dive into a deep topic to help get a bit of an understanding of spin rates and what information can be useful.

What does the spin rate actually tell us that we already don't know with sites like FanGraphs and BrooksBaseball having a ton of information on each pitch? Besides the spin rate, other factors go into the quality of a pitch like velocity, location, deception, release point and other pitches in the pitcher's arsenal. Additionally, some work has already been done on the subject by FanGraphs' Jonah Pemstein in a two-part series. For each pitch type, he found the contact rate, swing rate, groundball rate, pop-up rate, BABIP and overall value. The post was extremely information heavy, but few new conclusions were provided.

I will start my own study with the basics with the two most common pitches getting mentioned, four-seam fastball and curveballs.

Effects of Spin Rate on Four-Seam Fastballs

The basic fastball is a great place to start because it is the pitch in which every other pitch must build off. A big key with the four-seamer is its wide range of values from the Jered Weaver 83 mph fastball to the lightning-bolt Aroldis Chapman 103 mph heater. A pitch's velocity is a huge factor when determining how this pitch will perform. For this reason, velocity was added to the analysis.

To get a basic reference on how different spinning fastball work, I binned spin rate and velocity and found what I see as the three most important individual pitch stats: swinging strikes (strikeouts), groundballs (usually singles at best) and popups (easy outs). To minimize outliers, each grouping had to have a minimum 50 pitches.

Note: The best way I have found to find individual pitchers and their spin rate is this table at Baseball Savant.

Number of Samples

SPIN
VELOCITY 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100 2200 2300 2400 2500 2600 2700
83 67 93 116 95 50 53
84 57 106 156 222 160 154 67
85 56 75 174 239 267 250 161
86 51 195 319 426 528 503 392 115
87 120 347 624 871 1146 1098 867 347
88 97 267 689 1367 1943 2438 2330 1734 639 130
89 62 149 451 1192 2433 3652 4183 3684 2715 1024 247
90 54 182 628 1638 3709 6174 7559 6278 4189 1576 358 70
91 194 681 1708 4714 8448 10983 9981 6262 2260 611 126
92 61 185 582 1899 5158 10017 13835 14018 9725 3864 952 222
93 56 159 443 1571 5002 9752 14015 15756 11727 5310 1476 230
94 129 385 1281 3940 8415 12934 14928 11317 5978 2003 361
95 67 211 747 2677 6220 10120 12026 9704 5468 2110 412
96 93 351 1544 4354 7243 9093 7929 4564 1719 384
97 107 766 2326 4080 5288 5393 3246 1126 229
98 269 1132 2106 2818 3116 2160 735 125
99 74 354 884 1219 1358 997 431 71
100 72 260 406 406 401 200

Swinging Strike Rate

SPIN
VELOCITY 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100 2200 2300 2400 2500 2600 2700
83 0.0% 1.1% 4.3% 11.6% 10.0% 5.7%
84 1.8% 2.8% 4.5% 5.9% 3.8% 7.1% 10.5%
85 0.0% 0.0% 3.5% 3.4% 5.2% 3.6% 4.4%
86 5.9% 3.1% 2.8% 5.9% 4.7% 4.0% 5.9% 8.7%
87 5.0% 2.0% 3.5% 4.3% 4.9% 4.6% 5.1% 6.6%
88 5.2% 3.4% 4.4% 4.0% 4.3% 4.3% 5.4% 7.5% 6.9% 8.5%
89 4.8% 2.0% 3.3% 4.3% 5.5% 3.5% 5.1% 5.7% 5.9% 6.0% 8.9%
90 1.9% 5.5% 4.1% 3.5% 4.6% 5.0% 5.3% 5.6% 7.5% 8.4% 10.3% 4.3%
91 7.9% 4.1% 3.7% 3.9% 4.8% 5.4% 6.5% 6.8% 6.8% 7.8% 9.2% 7.9%
92 7.0% 4.1% 5.2% 5.2% 5.9% 6.5% 7.1% 7.6% 8.3% 8.7% 10.4%
93 1.8% 1.9% 4.1% 5.2% 5.2% 6.9% 6.7% 7.5% 8.3% 9.6% 9.6% 12.2%
94 5.6% 3.9% 3.1% 5.2% 5.6% 6.8% 7.4% 7.9% 8.5% 9.2% 10.9% 11.4%
95 1.5% 4.7% 6.6% 6.4% 7.3% 8.1% 8.7% 10.1% 10.0% 12.0% 12.4%
96 14.0% 6.8% 5.9% 7.4% 8.9% 9.3% 10.2% 10.8% 11.3% 12.5%
97 4.7% 7.4% 7.8% 8.9% 9.8% 10.9% 12.8% 13.6% 19.2%
98 8.2% 7.6% 9.3% 10.5% 11.7% 13.2% 13.3% 16.8%
99 5.4% 10.2% 9.1% 11.2% 12.8% 13.4% 16.0% 19.7%
100 9.7% 11.2% 9.1% 14.3% 17.2% 18.0%

Groundball Rate

SPIN
VELOCITY 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100 2200 2300 2400 2500 2600 2700
83 33.3% 17.7% 44.4% 30.0% 33.3% 28.6%
84 44.4% 60.0% 45.8% 53.2% 26.7% 33.3% 8.3%
85 15.4% 50.0% 48.5% 42.6% 34.5% 28.6% 33.3%
86 45.5% 31.4% 39.1% 29.3% 36.1% 22.2% 18.9% 35.0%
87 48.2% 39.0% 34.4% 38.8% 35.6% 30.7% 28.4% 30.4%
88 48.0% 37.8% 40.7% 40.8% 34.4% 32.5% 28.6% 32.9% 25.5% 28.6%
89 61.5% 43.8% 52.5% 39.7% 37.1% 38.4% 35.0% 30.6% 27.5% 38.9% 44.7%
90 46.2% 60.5% 50.0% 46.8% 40.4% 35.9% 34.0% 30.1% 28.6% 26.0% 36.8% 46.2%
91 25.0% 36.7% 48.4% 39.3% 37.7% 35.6% 35.6% 33.8% 31.4% 28.3% 34.7% 30.0%
92 63.4% 54.5% 44.9% 39.2% 35.9% 35.3% 33.5% 32.4% 32.2% 29.1% 32.0%
93 33.3% 59.1% 52.3% 40.2% 45.1% 39.1% 35.0% 33.9% 33.1% 28.5% 32.8% 38.9%
94 33.3% 37.5% 44.4% 43.7% 44.8% 41.2% 38.7% 37.0% 36.2% 33.6% 30.6% 35.7%
95 40.0% 52.9% 47.0% 46.1% 42.8% 40.2% 37.0% 35.9% 31.2% 31.2% 32.8%
96 45.5% 52.6% 52.4% 44.2% 40.2% 38.5% 36.0% 37.0% 31.0% 37.7%
97 73.9% 51.7% 42.2% 46.2% 39.5% 41.1% 38.6% 36.1% 31.4%
98 60.3% 46.1% 41.6% 41.9% 41.6% 38.0% 35.1% 43.8%
99 76.9% 50.7% 44.1% 47.7% 48.5% 43.1% 40.0% 33.3%
100 73.3% 50.0% 48.3% 59.0% 47.8% 37.9%

Popup Rate

SPIN
VELOCITY 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100 2200 2300 2400 2500 2600 2700
83 8.3% 0.0% 7.4% 20.0% 11.1%
84 5.6% 0.0% 4.2% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% 8.3%
85 0.0% 10.0% 3.0% 13.0% 10.3% 14.3% 8.3%
86 9.1% 2.9% 17.4% 12.2% 13.4% 16.2% 13.5% 15.0%
87 7.4% 8.5% 6.6% 10.9% 9.6% 9.4% 9.2% 12.5%
88 4.0% 4.4% 7.1% 5.1% 9.3% 8.8% 9.5% 12.2% 8.2% 0.0%
89 0.0% 9.4% 5.1% 8.5% 9.2% 7.8% 9.8% 10.4% 12.6% 12.2% 6.4%
90 15.4% 7.0% 4.6% 6.1% 6.3% 7.6% 9.2% 10.0% 11.6% 10.9% 3.5% 7.7%
91 0.0% 6.1% 3.1% 4.6% 7.3% 8.6% 8.7% 10.2% 10.0% 12.9% 9.5% 10.0%
92 0.0% 2.0% 2.8% 7.3% 8.0% 8.5% 10.0% 11.4% 11.3% 18.9% 24.0%
93 0.0% 2.3% 4.6% 4.3% 6.6% 7.7% 8.2% 8.9% 9.6% 9.9% 11.6% 2.8%
94 0.0% 3.1% 0.0% 4.4% 6.4% 8.3% 7.4% 8.3% 9.4% 10.9% 11.8% 7.1%
95 10.0% 2.9% 5.4% 7.1% 5.9% 7.7% 9.6% 9.1% 10.1% 10.9% 17.2%
96 0.0% 6.4% 5.5% 6.3% 7.0% 8.2% 9.6% 8.6% 12.6% 13.2%
97 8.7% 6.9% 4.7% 6.2% 6.9% 7.0% 10.2% 5.9% 8.6%
98 3.5% 4.2% 3.8% 6.1% 7.1% 8.1% 8.1% 6.3%
99 0.0% 5.8% 4.0% 7.0% 5.9% 11.0% 16.7% 16.7%
100 6.7% 5.3% 10.0% 7.7% 4.4% 13.8%

First off, not all the numbers make a nice transition from one value to the next, so a person may need to massage the numbers from those around it to get a reasonable value.

As for the results, the output of the swinging strike table is so important, you should stop and bookmark this page now. The big item to notice is that if a pitch has enough of a spin rate, it can make up for being quite a bit slower. Let's compare two pitches. Pitcher A's fastball averages 90 mph on his pitches with an average spin of 2,400 rpm. Pitcher B averages 96 mph and 2,100 rpm on his spin. Looking at the above tables, these could easily be the expected values:

Fastball A:

Swstr%: 7.3%
Popup%: 11%
GB%: 30%

Fastball B

SwStr%: 7.3%
Popup%: 5.5%
GB%: 44%

These fastballs will generate the same amount of swinging strikes even though one is 6 mph slower than the other. The key in evaluating this pair is to decide if the team would like twice as many sure outs with the easy popups or try to field a few more groundballs. Looking through some pitchers, I found some comps for the two pitches. Fastball A is similar to Marco Estrada's and Fastball B is like Gerrit Cole's. Here are the actual results on the two fastballs.

Estrada (90 mph, 2,400 rpm)

Swstr%: 7.5%
Popup%: 13.7%
GB%: 27%

Cole (96 mph, 2,100 rpm)

Swstr%: 6.3%
Popup%: 5.6%
GB%: 48.5%

The numbers almost perfectly lineup with the expected values with the exception that Cole's fastball gets a few less than expected swinging strikes.

I think the biggest advantage with these numbers is to find pitchers with who have their fastball graded mainly off their fastball velocity. Their spin rate may move them up or down the quality pitch spectrum.

For a reference, here are the average spin values at each velocity.

VELOCITYAVG SPIN
86 2188
87 2204
88 2198
89 2192
90 2197
91 2212
92 2234
93 2253
94 2269
95 2287
96 2303
97 2320
98 2338
99 2357
100 2382

Another use for the above tables is to get an idea of how a pitcher likely will produce if his spin and/or velocity changes. More than likely, a pitcher will see both his velocity and spin drop at the same time and fastball will be at a new lower level of production.

The key with fastball spin rate is to put it into context with the velocity. One or the other is not enough to determine the quality of the pitch. Enough with the fastballs, it's time to move onto curveballs.

Effects of Spin Rate on Curveballs

Curveballs seem to get a ton of love from the StatCast disciples. I think the main reason is because of the crazy high spin rates compared to fastballs.

For curveballs, I did the same binning of velocity and spin rate to find swinging strike rate and groundball rate. I ran the popup rates and the only information I found was a lack of information so their numbers are ignored. On to the tables.

Number of Samples

SPIN
VELOCITY 1900 2000 2100 2200 2300 2400 2500 2600 2700 2800 2900 3000
68 60 48 102 137 56
69 39 72 95 92 86 141 81
70 58 99 127 132 132 143 119
71 78 140 192 212 220 284 209 96
72 111 180 267 347 342 454 446 205 126 51
73 50 111 213 400 549 463 589 654 379 218 103
74 105 179 286 479 728 638 674 831 555 398 244 75
75 123 251 345 467 807 842 848 922 732 570 324 131
76 153 318 474 591 898 1006 992 965 853 649 412 200
77 162 376 565 807 975 1158 1008 994 977 749 436 215
78 147 305 559 793 991 1165 1087 987 960 860 536 239
79 95 237 440 693 1037 1243 1043 837 802 836 554 323
80 70 163 379 634 907 1290 1116 820 706 600 400 251
81 74 137 293 544 759 1029 974 765 637 512 318 155
82 99 206 444 590 776 804 689 597 469 248 127
83 51 173 287 456 548 551 558 450 315 184 82
84 51 114 269 443 518 426 382 356 226 121 58
85 64 146 285 337 302 221 228 142 70
86 93 149 179 128 101 99 97

Swinging Strike Rate

SPIN
VELOCITY 1900 2000 2100 2200 2300 2400 2500 2600 2700 2800 2900 3000
68 3.3% 8.3% 11.8% 12.4% 14.3%
69 0.0% 4.2% 6.3% 5.4% 15.1% 8.5% 9.9%
70 10.3% 6.1% 8.7% 6.8% 4.6% 10.5% 8.4%
71 7.7% 8.6% 6.3% 6.1% 9.1% 5.6% 8.6% 10.4%
72 8.1% 8.9% 6.4% 5.5% 7.3% 11.2% 8.5% 7.3% 10.3% 3.9%
73 2.0% 7.2% 7.0% 6.8% 6.9% 9.1% 6.1% 9.8% 7.1% 9.6% 3.9%
74 1.9% 3.9% 7.7% 7.9% 7.8% 9.1% 9.8% 7.1% 9.4% 8.0% 7.4% 6.7%
75 4.1% 6.8% 7.5% 9.2% 7.8% 7.6% 8.5% 7.6% 9.4% 8.8% 7.1% 6.9%
76 2.0% 6.9% 6.8% 6.9% 7.7% 9.2% 10.7% 6.8% 7.5% 7.1% 8.7% 9.0%
77 5.6% 4.8% 4.4% 8.7% 7.6% 7.2% 8.8% 9.7% 5.5% 9.0% 7.6% 7.0%
78 6.1% 9.5% 8.1% 8.1% 7.2% 8.7% 9.9% 8.4% 9.2% 9.8% 8.8% 11.7%
79 7.4% 5.5% 6.6% 6.9% 7.7% 6.8% 9.7% 8.0% 8.7% 8.1% 11.7% 11.8%
80 8.6% 7.4% 7.7% 7.7% 11.3% 7.7% 8.7% 9.0% 7.7% 10.8% 12.0% 10.4%
81 5.4% 4.4% 6.5% 9.9% 9.4% 10.0% 12.6% 7.2% 9.7% 6.6% 9.8% 11.6%
82 5.1% 9.7% 12.4% 11.0% 11.2% 9.8% 9.6% 8.7% 9.6% 11.7% 10.2%
83 9.8% 12.1% 16.0% 12.9% 11.7% 10.2% 15.1% 10.0% 9.5% 12.5% 17.1%
84 11.8% 12.3% 16.7% 12.4% 11.2% 19.0% 10.2% 15.7% 13.3% 8.3% 10.3%
85 14.1% 15.8% 14.0% 15.1% 20.5% 14.0% 14.9% 14.8% 12.9%
86 19.4% 20.1% 17.3% 19.5% 14.9% 14.1% 13.4%

Groundball Rate

SPIN
VELOCITY 1900 2000 2100 2200 2300 2400 2500 2600 2700 2800 2900 3000
68 42.9% 20.0% 38.9% 30.4% 22.2%
69 75.0% 25.0% 40.0% 45.5% 26.7% 42.1% 75.0%
70 40.0% 36.4% 27.8% 35.0% 47.6% 46.4% 38.1%
71 25.0% 37.5% 41.7% 51.5% 28.0% 44.7% 32.0% 35.3%
72 50.0% 45.8% 22.2% 42.3% 52.8% 41.9% 47.0% 34.2% 33.3% 37.5%
73 50.0% 46.7% 39.4% 43.4% 43.0% 39.1% 42.9% 50.0% 36.1% 66.7% 64.7% 66.7%
74 33.3% 44.0% 19.5% 38.2% 45.5% 48.2% 43.0% 48.2% 54.0% 50.8% 39.1% 57.1%
75 66.7% 46.0% 37.8% 45.9% 53.0% 37.4% 41.4% 45.1% 46.3% 52.4% 63.0% 65.0%
76 55.6% 32.7% 45.5% 51.4% 34.9% 45.9% 49.3% 49.3% 47.7% 51.1% 63.2% 64.3%
77 63.9% 43.8% 44.1% 42.3% 42.3% 49.7% 52.2% 52.1% 51.2% 41.7% 53.5% 51.9%
78 33.3% 43.1% 45.5% 41.9% 38.6% 52.6% 47.3% 53.6% 52.5% 50.8% 50.0% 56.3%
79 31.6% 42.9% 33.3% 50.9% 47.8% 44.0% 44.9% 49.6% 50.0% 44.7% 57.9% 57.4%
80 66.7% 65.0% 49.2% 48.5% 47.9% 49.3% 54.9% 46.6% 50.5% 56.0% 60.0% 66.7%
81 55.6% 41.7% 52.2% 52.8% 47.2% 57.9% 48.7% 45.5% 53.1% 50.0% 59.6% 43.8%
82 46.2% 43.5% 37.1% 40.0% 56.6% 54.9% 44.4% 59.0% 56.8% 52.8% 38.5%
83 55.6% 37.0% 43.2% 38.2% 45.7% 57.7% 47.5% 60.9% 45.8% 56.0% 69.2%
84 53.9% 39.1% 37.1% 30.3% 46.8% 46.5% 41.5% 59.6% 60.6% 66.7% 46.2%
85 50.0% 52.6% 63.6% 42.2% 42.2% 37.8% 57.1% 56.0% 53.9%
86 44.4% 36.4% 38.1% 52.4% 50.0% 61.5% 66.7% 60.0%

Let me start with the second table before I get to the last disaster. Like with fastballs, a fast curve with the most spin gets the most swinging strike. This is not rocket science since the goal of every pitcher should be to throw as hard as possible with the most movement.

An important feature of this table happens with pitchers over 80 mph. The curves with the most spin at or under 80 mph max out their swinging strike rate around 12 percent. If a pitcher wants to move into the 15 percent or higher swinging-strike rates, they need to push for high and high curveball velocities.

Now, the next table is a mess. I graphed a few of the lines hoping for a pattern with no luck. I decided to simplify them down to just spin rate versus groundball rate and here are the results:

SPIN RATEGB%
800 42.6
900 39.1
1000 40.6
1100 34.8
1200 42.7
1300 42.3
1400 47.1
1500 69.6
1600 55.3
1700 54.7
1800 41.4
1900 50.7
2000 43.8
2100 41.8
2200 44.3
2300 43.4
2400 47.5
2500 48.0
2600 47.5
2700 50.9
2800 50.8
2900 56.4
3000 57.0
3100 49.6

Now things get even more confusing. At the low spin rate end there is a groundball rate spike at 1,500 to 1,700 rpm, then it drops down to a low at 2100 rpm, and then ramps up again until it levels off around 2400 rpm. Usually, the more spin a curve has, the more sink it exhibits, and the more groundball it produces. I have no idea what is going on with the 1,500 to 1,700 jump. No pitcher averages in the range, so the pitches could be mistakes. Or maybe some slow curves messing with the data. Also, this may be where submarine pitchers work from. I am going to ask some people in the industry and look a little more into the results.

Ignoring the low rpm/groundball bump, pitchers get the best results with curves over 80 mph and 2,400 rpm. For a reference, here are the regulars with a curve meeting the two criteria ordered by velocity (min 100 curves thrown).

PLAYERCB VELOCITYAVG SPINSwStr%GB%COUNT
Sam Dyson 84.8 2862 11.3% 30.0% 151
Lance McCullers 84.6 2615 16.4% 66.7% 177
Tommy Hunter 84.4 2465 10.5% 37.5% 210
Carlos Carrasco 84.0 2502 13.6% 62.8% 426
Yordano Ventura 83.8 2578 9.2% 57.6% 1158
Corey Kluber 83.7 2490 16.0% 44.4% 870
Ryan Pressly 83.2 2888 9.4% 36.4% 235
Bryan Mitchell 83.0 2729 7.1% 67.7% 155
Kevin Jepsen 82.7 2433 7.4% 55.9% 458
Stephen Strasburg 82.1 2606 7.8% 60.2% 709
Kelvin Herrera 82.0 2655 8.9% 52.0% 101
Gerrit Cole 82.0 2480 9.2% 34.0% 349
Will Harris 81.7 2625 7.6% 60.9% 475
Marcus Stroman 81.7 2626 7.1% 65.8% 224
Matt Bush 81.6 2472 15.0% 52.4% 113
Sonny Gray 81.5 2690 7.1% 46.7% 702
Buddy Boshers 81.4 2432 14.8% 57.1% 128
Carlos Torres 81.3 2437 9.7% 61.3% 237
Jake Arrieta 81.2 2710 12.6% 58.7% 819
Average 10.6% 53.1%
Median 9.4% 57.1%

Looking at the curveball spin rate data, the results are the same as fastballs. Spin rate is a desired curveball pitch stat, but it needs to be paired with the pitch's velocity to start to value the pitch.

Conclusion

I didn't expect to find much will diving into pitch spin rates as I figured the results were baked into pre-existing pitch information. Both pitch types fall under the sage old advice that velocity and movement define a pitch. The more speed and spin on the pitch, the harder the pitch is to hit.

With four-seam fastballs, I did find spin rate helpful in explaining why 95 mph fastballs and pitches 5 mph slower perform similarly.

With curveballs, higher spin is helpful, but it is more important if the pitcher can throw his curve hard. Reported pitch spin is helpful, but it really needs to be put into context with velocity to understand how it helps the pitcher.

Spin rate by itself only tells half the story and sometimes not even that much.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jeff Zimmerman
Jeff is a former RotoWire contributor. He wrote analytics-focused baseball and football articles for RotoWire. He is a three-time FSWA award winner, including the Football Writer of the Year and Best Football Print Article awards in 2016. The 2017 Tout Wars Mixed Auction champion and 2016 Tout Wars Head-to-Head champ, Zimmerman also contributes to FanGraphs.com, BaseballHQ and Baseball America.
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