Top MLB Betting Picks for August 21: Expert Predictions and Best Bets
Previous article 3-2 (+0.65 units)
Season 113-120-2 (-10.10 units)
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Key MLB Betting Trends and Matchups Analysis
Before locking in your MLB bets Thursday, be sure to check out these key betting numbers.
As teams fall out of the playoff race, we will start to see inflated moneylines.
Home Favorites - Padres -180 vs Giants
Road Favorites - Dodgers -225 at Rockies
Totals - Dodgers/Rockies 11.5-12.5, Brewers/Cubs 6.5
Line Movement - A's -15, Royals -14
Totals - Nationals/Mets 7.5 to 8.5
Bullpen Rankings as of 8.14.25 (xFIP, K/9, BB/9, HR/9 Last 30 Days)
Top 10 (Rays, Padres, Cardinals, Guardians, Mariners, Phillies, Mets, White Sox, Angels, Pirates). These are teams you can feel confident betting in full-game situations.
Bottom 10 (Rockies, Twins, Nationals, Orioles, Braves, Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Astros, Royals, Red Sox). These are teams you can feel confident betting against in full-game situations. If you want to bet these teams, only focus on the F5 inning lines.
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Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees Betting Insights
The slate is tough, and there are not many options to really find value, so I am going pretty chalk in the article Thursday.
The Red Sox have struggled on the road this year, and are not in a good place going 4-6 in their last 10 with some bad late-innings losses. The Yankees have started to turn things around, going 7-3 in their last 10.
Red Sox RHP Lucas Giolito has pitched much better, but he still has struggled against very good offenses on the road, which is the spot Thursday night in New York. Yankees RHP Luis Gil struggled in his first start back against the Miami Marlins, but he looked much better in his last two starts against the Houston Astros and St. Louis Cardinals.
I typically like to stay below -125 on any bet, so the Yankees ML at -140 to -150 did not present value to me, so I looked at laying -0.5 runs F5 to get down to -115.
Best Bet: Yankees -0.5 runs F5 - 1 unit (-115 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
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San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres Best Bets and Predictions
Whenever the Giants are at home, I always look to be on the UNDER in some sort or fashion because of the way the ballpark plays. On the road is a different story, but this Giants offense is so tough because they are averaging about 2.5 runs per game in their last nine at home, and five runs per game on the road in their last nine.
They just scored a total of three runs against the Padres in a three-game series at home, and they have only scored six runs in this current series in three games in San Diego. Giants RHP Justin Verlander has started to pitch much better with a 3.03 ERA in his last seven starts. Padres RHP Dylan Cease has been much better at home with a 3.62 ERA and 1.23 WHIP, versus a 5.65 ERA and 1.39 WHIP on the road.
The recent Giants offense in this series combined with two pitchers looking better has me leaning on Under Thursday.
Best Bet: Giants/Padres UNDER 8 runs - 1 unit (-118 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
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New York Mets vs Washington Nationals Best Bets and Predictions
I really hate taking teams in games where they are either playing poorly, have nothing to play for, and the starting pitchers have been struggling. That is the case with the Mets/Nationals and LHP Sean Manaea against LHP MacKenzie Gore. But this is probably the toughest slate I have seen all season, and there are just not many options.
Manaea has allowed at least four earned runs in each of his last three starts, and Gore has a 6.95 ERA in his last seven starts, but has pitched well over his last two outings. The Mets are averaging 6.3 runs per game in their last 10 and the Nationals are at 4.7 in the span. This has the feel of a 6-5 type game that could go either way.
Best Bet: Mets/Nationals OVER 8 runs - 1 unit (-115 at BetRivers Sportsbook)
MLB Picks Thursday Recap
- Yankees -0.5 runs F5 - 1 unit (-115 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Giants/Padres UNDER 8.0 runs - 1 unit (-118 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Mets/Nationals OVER 8.0 runs - 1 unit (-115 at BetRivers Sportsbook)
