Chris Sale, BOS vs. MIN ($25,200):- Sale is the no-brainer of the modestly-sized evening slate, considering the matchup and the fact that he’s scored under 20 fantasy points in just one start this season and over 30 in six overall. Sale also owns a 2.45 ERA in 51.1 innings at Fenway this season, and has allowed a .224 wOBA and .185 average while racking up a stellar 65:9 K:BB there as well. The Twins have generated a paltry .288 wOBA and 28.1 percent hard contact rate in 183 plate appearances versus lefties on the road over the last two months, and they sport a 22.4 percent strikeout rate on the road overall in June.
Carlos Carrasco, CLE vs. TEX ($22,500):- The sub-$20K pitcher tier on Monday’s abbreviated slate appears risky, making Carrasco my second choice behind Sale. The Rangers check in with the highest strikeout rate (30.1 percent) against right-handed pitching on the road since May 25, along with a -3.8 wRAA. Carrasco has undeniably had a couple of stumbles and has actually been better on the road, but he does bring an upside north of 30 fantasy points, especially with the way the Rangers swing and miss versus righties. He also compiled 23.15 fantasy points versus this same squad at hitter-friendly Globe Life Park over just 5.2 innings in his first start of the season, and he’s scored over 20 fantasy points in three home starts.
Cody Bellinger, LAD vs. LAA ($10,800):- Bellinger has become a dangerous fade in either cash game or tournaments, particularly when he faces a pitcher as generous with the long ball as Angels starter Ricky Nolasco. Bellinger belted another pair of round trippers Sunday and checks into Monday with a .408 wOBA and .422 ISO at home, including a .410 wOBA and .424 ISO versus righties there. He also boasts a 50.9 percent hard contact rate against that handedness overall, while Nolasco has given up a .371 wOBA, 2.25 HR/9, 6.01 xFIP and 38.0 percent hard contact rate to lefty bats on the road. Matters have been going downhill for him in June as well, as he’s surrendered a .409 wOBA, a 5.63 ERA and seven homers over the 24 innings encompassing his last four starts.
Matt Davidson, CWS vs. NYY ($7,600):- Davidson has thrived against lefties, especially at Guaranteed Rate Field, where he’s compiled a .429 wOBA and 1.038 OPS in 35 plate appearances versus that handedness. He’s also posted a .414 wOBA and .303 ISO against southpaws overall. While rookie Yankees starter Jordan Montgomery has been impressive, six of the nine homers he’s surrendered this season have come off righty bats, while the 31.9 percent hard contact rate he’s allowed in June represents a notable boost from the 24.1 percent and 25.0 percent figures he’d yielded in the first two months of the season.
Matt Wieters, WAS vs. CHC ($5,600):- Wieters makes for a viable option if you’re punting in the infield Monday, considering his .366 wOBA at Nationals Park, which includes a .340 wOBA, 24.6 percent line drive rate and 36.2 percent hard contact rate versus righties there. Those numbers line up well for fantasy purposes versus Cubs starter Eddie Butler, who’s road struggles include a .424 wOBA, 7.17 xFIP, 2.20 WHIP and 50.0 percent hard contact rate surrendered to lefty hitters.
Aaron Judge, NYY at CWS ($10,800):- Much like Bellinger, it’s becoming increasingly risky to fade Judge, particularly on a small slate. The Yankees slugger has a .481 wOBA, 30.2 percent line drive rate and 50.9 percent hard contact rate over 108 plate appearances in June, and he owns a .496 wOBA, .383 ISO, 1.215 OPS, 217 wRC+ and 48.4 percent hard contact rate versus southpaws. White Sox starter David Holmberg’s numbers look good on the surface, but the combination of a 6.33 xFIP and .226 BABIP allowed to righties at home certainly hints at some imminent regression, as does the 39.7 percent hard contact rate he’s yielded to that handedness overall.
Avisail Garcia, CWS vs. NYY ($8,100):- Garcia is another of several White Sox bats that have punished lefties, as evidenced by the .480 wOBA, .197 ISO, 206 wRC+ and 46.3 percent hard contact rate he’s compiled versus that handedness. Despite the modest slump he currently finds himself in, Garcia is still enjoying another excellent month in what has been a breakout season, as he owns a .366 wOBA over 93 June plate appearances and has seen a notable jump in hard contact rate to 48.5 percent during the month as well.
Hunter Pence, SF vs. COL ($6,300):- Pence makes for a likely low-owned bargain in the outfield Monday, considering he’s been coming on at the plate after a slow start. The veteran slugger owns a .322 wOBA and 33.9 percent hard contact rate over 77 June plate appearances, and has a .371 average, .414 wOBA and 38.2 percent hard contact rate in his last 10 games. Rockies starter German Marquez has been impressive thus far, but he does allow a 4.78 xFIP, 22.6 percent line drive rate and 34.7 percent hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. Additionally, the Rockies bullpen has been vulnerable lately, allowing seven homers, a 4.18 ERA, 22.9 percent line drive rate and 32.9 percent hard contact rate over the last month.
Justin Turner, LAD vs. LAA ($8,800):- Ricky Nolasco has given up a .398 wOBA to right-handed hitters on the road, along with 14 homers and a 41.5 percent hard contact rate to that handedness overall. Turner is decimating right-handed pitching as usual this season and owns an eye-popping .485 wOBA, 208 wRC+ and 45.5 percent hard contact rate against that handedness at home. He’s also posting video-game numbers overall in June, tallying a .526 wOBA, 234 wRC+, .294 ISO, 26.1 percent line drive rate and 47.8 percent hard contact rate in his last 63 plate appearances.
Michael A. Taylor, WAS vs. CHC ($7,800):- Taylor has punished righties at Nationals Park to the tune of a .403 wOBA, .316 ISO and 34.6 percent hard contact rate, and he owns a .387 wOBA over 83 plate appearances in June. The latter sample includes three homers over the last two games, as well as seven double-digit fantasy-point efforts in the last 10 contests. Cubs starter Eddie Butler has been a bit on the lucky side against righties on the road, as an unsustainable .161 BABIP, 5.21 xFIP and 31.3 percent hard contact rate bely the .226 wOBA he’s allowed to that handedness outside of Wrigley.