This article is part of our Yahoo DFS Basketball series.
It's LeBron James' world, and we're just living in it. If the NBA Playoffs had a slogan for DFS play, this phrase would be a worthy candidate. While he outpaces the next available player on Saturday's slate by $12, he's been a member of every perfect lineup when Cleveland plays and not playing him really puts you behind the 8-ball in cash lineups. I'm always going to endeavor to fade him in a tournament or two, but I realize that I do so at my own peril.
Both Toronto and Philadelphia are in places that they did not expect to be in Game 3. Both teams are facing 0-2 deficits and desperately need to turn things around before they become post-season disappointments. Toronto's position is the most confounding, as it is by far the best team on paper, with prolific star players and one of the deepest benches in the game. The Raptors will try to turn things around in a hostile road environment, and if the playoffs have shown anything so far, it's that anyone can get blown out on any given night. If any team has the fire lit under it, it's the Raptors. I will try to get more of them in my lineups Saturday.
The lines are similar for both games, but the 206 over/under for the Celtics-Sixers game seems a little low. The teams have combined for 211 and 218 points in the first two games. Philly will be happy to see its home court, but it remains to be seen if Ben Simmons can shake off Boston's very effective defensive game plan that is focused on neutralizing him.
Based on the Celtics' success so far, I think Simmons' $48 price is a bit too cost-prohibitive and an overall risk. Although we only have four teams in play, that money can be better spent elsewhere. On the other end of the ball, the Celtics may have to wait a while to see Jaylen Brown at 100 percent as it's reported that he aggravated his sore hamstring in Game 2 and likely will be a game-time decision. Unless Brown sees a full complement of minutes, I don't see much changing in Boston's game script. If you're looking for reliable floors, the Celtics have the most to offer in that department, while the young Sixers are the best tournament candidates in terms of their potential ceiling and moderate risk.
I'll now target two players at each position, which will include a higher-cost player and a value play at each spot. We'll also feature a player to fade in each category.
GUARD
Terry Rozier, BOS at PHI ($32): Rozier has simply outplayed both Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan and while I think Lowry could be a reasonable tandem play at $29, I can't leave Rozier out of most of my lineups Saturday. He's averaged an insane 51.5 YFP in two games against the Sixers, an average only rivaled by LeBron's incredible totals in the second round. It's amazing that he isn't commanding a higher price.
Fred VanVleet, TOR at PHI ($10): I think we'll see more of VanVleet in Game 3 as he continues his return from injury. As a result, I think Delon Wright's contributions will diminish somewhat as VanVleet moves into a more prominent role in the second unit. At this bargain price, he can be very useful in giving your salary cap a break.
Other guards to consider: J.J. Redick, PHI vs. BOS ($20), Marcus Smart, BOS at PHI ($19).
Guard to Avoid:
Marco Belinelli, PHI vs. BOS ($15): While there's no doubt that Philly would be well-served by giving Belinelli more opportunities, he isn't getting the kind of usage he had in the first round. If he came at a slightly cheaper price I'd be tempted to give him some exposure, but the position is too valuable to make a play for him.
FORWARD
Al Horford, BOS at PHI ($29): With the exception of a 19.1 YFP game against the Bucks, Horford hasn't produced less than 32 YFP in nine playoff games, and it's hard to find a more dependable floor than that for $29. Despite that fact, Horford's ownership pales in comparison to players like Jayson Tatum and Robert Covington. All that could change Saturday, as I think people will flock to his stable stat-line potential. I'm a big fan of a James/Horford tandem at the forward spot.
J.R. Smith, CLE vs. TOR ($11): The Cavs are acutely aware that they need to get their backcourt more involved to ensure long-term success I like getting someone like Smith in my lineup despite his slightly odd designation at forward, as he's played almost every position for the Cavs this season. He lacks the potential explosiveness that someone like Covington or Saric can give you, and I think both are reasonable tournament plays, but they'll also be exceedingly popular.
Other forwards to consider: Jayson Tatum, BOS at PHI ($26), Robert Covington, PHI vs. BOS ($25).
Forward to Avoid:
Serge Ibaka, TOR at CLE ($18): Ibaka's struggles loom as one of the main culprits behind Toronto's second-round collapse as they simply can't seem to get production at the wing. Jonas Valanciunas has had great success inside, but he's been the lone bright spot in their frontcourt. A Toronto win should also provide a decent line from Ibaka, but his luck so far makes him a risky play.
CENTER
Joel Embiid, PHI vs. BOS ($40): I'm sticking with the top two in this category. The great thing about Embiid is that while he's a prolific rebounder, he's not dependent on that stat to put up a good game like an Andre Drummond or DeAndre Jordan. He has some skills on the perimeter and can loft 3-pointers with the best of them. Embiid now needs to put his money where his mouth is and give the Sixers a much-needed win.
Kevin Love, CLE vs. TOR ($25): Although I like Embiid, I'm more likely to land here without a complaint. You can tall that Love is finally feeling it in the postseason and is giving LeBron the support he needs. He had a masterful 31 points and 11 rebounds in Game 2, and I think we'll see more of the same Saturday.
Center to Avoid:
Aron Baynes, BOS at PHI ($10): This just hasn't been a great series for Baynes, as he just looks like he can't handle the rigors of covering Embiid, and unfortunately the time is split up so much that no one else really emerges as a decent DFS play for Boston at center. It's best to stay away.
