The 2020 NBA off-season is like no other off-season in history. With such a whirlwind of activity over a very brief period, there's a chance you've missed some of the personnel moves. Never fear, we're here to break down all of the new faces in new places, and how the last week of player movement will impact fantasy basketball in 2020-21.
Over the next few weeks, we'll take a division-by-division look at some of the most pressing fantasy questions facing each franchise. The answers might not always be pretty, but with less than a month to prepare for fantasy drafts, it's more important than ever to thoroughly evaluate all 30 teams.
We begin in the Atlantic:
Boston Celtics
Newly-signed veterans Tristan Thompson and Jeff Teague look to complement an excellent young core. Jayson Tatum, Kemba Walker, Jaylen Brown and Marcus Smart are a lock to start, with the only question remaining at the five.
Who will be the top center: Daniel Theis, Tristan Thompson or Robert Williams?
Last year, Theis started 65 of 72 regular season games, as well as all 17 of Boston's playoff games. He also averaged a career-high 24.1 minutes per contest. Theis' backup, Enes Kanter, received seven starts and averaged 16.9 minutes per game. High-upside Texas A&M product Robert Williams battled hip issues and played in only 29 games (13.9 min/gm).
Kanter is now in Portland, and the Celtics have upgraded with 29-year-old Tristan Thompson (Somehow still only 29 years old.
The 2020 NBA off-season is like no other off-season in history. With such a whirlwind of activity over a very brief period, there's a chance you've missed some of the personnel moves. Never fear, we're here to break down all of the new faces in new places, and how the last week of player movement will impact fantasy basketball in 2020-21.
Over the next few weeks, we'll take a division-by-division look at some of the most pressing fantasy questions facing each franchise. The answers might not always be pretty, but with less than a month to prepare for fantasy drafts, it's more important than ever to thoroughly evaluate all 30 teams.
We begin in the Atlantic:
Boston Celtics
Newly-signed veterans Tristan Thompson and Jeff Teague look to complement an excellent young core. Jayson Tatum, Kemba Walker, Jaylen Brown and Marcus Smart are a lock to start, with the only question remaining at the five.
Who will be the top center: Daniel Theis, Tristan Thompson or Robert Williams?
Last year, Theis started 65 of 72 regular season games, as well as all 17 of Boston's playoff games. He also averaged a career-high 24.1 minutes per contest. Theis' backup, Enes Kanter, received seven starts and averaged 16.9 minutes per game. High-upside Texas A&M product Robert Williams battled hip issues and played in only 29 games (13.9 min/gm).
Kanter is now in Portland, and the Celtics have upgraded with 29-year-old Tristan Thompson (Somehow still only 29 years old. He's seems older, doesn't he?). Boston would still love to know what they've got in the 23-year-old Williams. Plus, keep in mind that last season was the first year Theis was able to stay relative healthy.
Expect head coach Brad Stevens to be more matchup oriented, giving Thompson more minutes against teams with traditional centers, such as Philadelphia and Utah. A healthy Theis seems like fools gold: he already had late-October surgery to clean out his left knee. As for Williams, he's got this year and next year on his cheap rookie contract to prove he's legit. Theis will likely begin the year as the starting center, if only out of gratitude for last year as well as the shortened off-season giving Thompson very little time to learn the Celtic system. But Thompson should exceed Kanter's 17 minutes per game, with a finally healthy Williams also chipping away at Theis' minutes.
Other questions: Is Kemba Walker'sknee finally healthy for the long-term? Do Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown have more room for growth or have they peaked?
Brooklyn Nets
Will the 2020-21 Nets act like the 2019-20 Clippers, with a hard working core bristling to integrate with new stars? Kyrie Irving is not known for being a positive influence. Irving and Kevin Durant will see all the minutes their load management programs will allow. So who will be the third fantasy option in Brooklyn?
Who will be the highest-ranked fantasy player after Irving and Durant: Spencer Dinwiddie, Caris LeVert or Joe Harris?
All three of the above players will be valued fantasy assets, but remember that Irving and Durant combine for 36.4 shot attempts per game, based on career averages. That leaves roughly 53 shots for the remaining 13 roster spots. LeVert took 16.3 field goal attempts per contest last year and Dinwiddie was just behind him at 16.0. There is no way that continues in 2020-21, unless Irving and Durant fall victim to injuries.
Dinwiddie ranked 124th in nine-category leagues (per-game value) for 2019-20 with Irving playing in 20 games. Harris ranked 113th and LeVert finished all the way up at 81st. Harris' ranking came on 11.4 FGA/G -- I think those catch-and-shoot threes will still be plentiful for Harris with Irving and Durant around. I'm not so sure about Dinwiddie and LeVert, however. If Irving and Durant stay healthy (a significant if) I see Harris winning this battle. Both LeVert and Dinwiddie can still have value, but they're more likely to have their opportunities limited by the arrival of Durant and return of a healthy Irving.
Other questions: How many games do we expect Irving and Durant to actually play? Will Jarrett Allen continue to be hindered by DeAndre Jordan?
New York Knicks
The Knicks sure seem happy that Obi Toppin dropped to the 8th pick. And they were wise to let Bobby Portis and Taj Gibson move on. Unfortunately, they still have two years and roughly $39 million dollars left on Julius Randle's contract. That's gonna be tough to move, and leads to this:
Will Julius Randle impede the development of Obi Toppin and Mitchell Robinson?
Randle shot 46.0 percent from the field last year, which is pretty bad for a power-forward-center type. He ranked ninth (ninth) on the roster in effective field goal percentage (49.2 percent), behind inefficient teammates Wayne Ellington and Bobby Portis. And yet, Randle led the Knicks with 15.7 field goal attempts per game (Julius, please stop shooting!). On top of that, Randle had a defensive rating of 112.0, which would have placed him dead last on the Celtics.
Guess who had the Knick's highest eFG%? It was Mitchell Robinson at 74.2 percent, via 5.6 field goal attempts per game. Now I'm not saying Robinson should start chucking it from three, but maybe he could receive a few more effective passes per game? Toppin shot an ultra-efficient 63.3 eFG% during his last year at Dayton on 12.5 field goal attempts per game. Like Robinson, that efficiency included a whole lot of dunks. If the Knicks can't trade Randle, will new coach Tom Thibodeau have the guts to bench him? He certainly has the gravitas to do so. But he also wants to win now, not develop talent.
This is a long way of saying that I worry most projections for Toppin and Robinson are probably overly optimistic as long as Randle is around. RotoWire projects Toppin to put up roughly a 15-7-2 per game, with Robinson generating 10 points and seven boards with two blocks. Get rid of Randle and it's hard not to imagine those numbers ticking upward.
Bonus questions: Will Tom Thibodeau lean on his starters the same way he did in Minnesota and Chicago? Who will start at point guard?
Philadelphia 76ers
You don't bring in Daryl Morey if you want to stand pat. Morey wisely assessed the Sixers needed to get rid of bad contracts (goodbye, Al Horford) and bring in better outside shooting (hello, Danny Green and Seth Curry). With Ben Simmons, Joel Embiid and Tobias Harris locked in as starters…
Which (if any) Sixers' wings will have fantasy value?
I know, I know, every player has SOME value. But will anyone standout beyond Philly's Big 3? Who will start at the two and the three? JJ Redick is not walking through that door. Shooting guard and small forward is a mix of Danny Green, Seth Curry, Furkan Korkmaz (release the Korkmaz!) and Matisse Thybulle. (Harris will occasionally play small forward when Shake Milton sees some time at the point and Simmons moves to power forward.)
While Green is somehow sporting three title rings, let's remember he's 33 years old and shot 41.6 percent from the field last year. Korkmaz is a spry 23, but he's a career 41.6 percent shooter. On the positive side, Korkmaz did hit 40.2 percent of his shots from behind the arc last year. But I'm not sure his defense allows for major minutes (defensive rating of 112 last year). Seth Curry also has defensive issues, but his game seems to fit best with Embiid and Simmons. Simply put, he can catch and shoot. You don't need Morey-like math skills to know Curry is the number two all-time NBA leader in three-point shot percentage at 44.3 percent, just behind Steve Kerr. Elite shooting is worth sacrificing defensive effectiveness. Curry played a career-high 24.6 minutes per game last year. It's time for the 30-year-old to receive another boost in playing time.
Bonus questions: Will Ben Simmons be slowed down by his August knee surgery? What changes does new coach Doc Rivers make to the offense?
Toronto Raptors
Despite signing Fred VanVleet to a major four-year contract, the Raptors suffer major losses up front in Marc Gasol and Serge Ibaka. For Toronto, the big question is:
Is Kyle Lowry about to fall off of a cliff?
OK, that wording might be a little dramatic. Toronto's star point guard is coming off his sixth straight All-Star season. But signs of decay are starting to pop up. Lowry has shot under 42 percent in each of the past two season. This will be his age-34 season. He missed 14 games last year after missing 17 games in 2018-19. Now that VanVleet is officially installed as a franchise cornerstone, will he take on a larger offensive role?
On the positive, despite his age, Lowry ranked fourth in the NBA in minutes per game, ninth in assists per game, 17th in three-pointers made per game and 20th in steals per game last year. Lowry could very well have one more top-30 season left in him, but the list of point guards who've aged gracefully into their mid-30s is not a long one.
Other questions: Who is the better fantasy option at center: Aron Baynes or Chris Boucher? Should we be concerned with Pascal Siakam's postseason fall-off?
