This article is part of our Handicapping the NBA series.
I don't have a firm grasp on what will happen in these series. When that's the case, I usually opt for a long-shot parlay with targets that seem feasible. Asking 12 assists from Young, 14 boards from Capela and six assists from Mitchell is not absurd. It's not easy in a playoff environment, but that's why the odds are as long as they are. The toughest part of the whole parlay is probably the Jazz winning by at least 11 on the road after getting decimated in Game 3. However, by now, we know that the Clippers are prone to no-showing on occasion. Ultimately, I think 44-to-1 odds is fair on this.
LA Clippers -5.0 (-112) vs. UTA – DraftKings (12:28 PM CT)
Much like the Dallas series in Round 1, the Clippers took two losses on the chin before rebounding with a much more encouraging Game 3. While the Clippers won't be able to get away with such anemic play against a better opponent, Utah could very well be without Mike Conley again Monday, while Donovan Mitchell may be limited by the tweaked ankle that forced him out of Game 3. With no Conley, the Jazz need Mitchell at full strength to take down Kawhi and Co., so with the expectation that Mitchell doesn't look quite as good as he has through three games, give the Clippers to cover and even the series.
Player parlay: Joel Embiid to have a double-double AND the 76ers beat ATL (+150) – DraftKings
Both of these individual outcomes have favorable odds, so why not combine them to get us to a more advantageous number? Embiid has completely shaken off the meniscus tear that I thought would wreak havoc on this series, and while he's once again listed as questionable, he hasn't looked remotely limited through three games. The big man does have only one double-double thus far, but he fell a rebound short in Games 1 and 3, and he nearly had a triple-double in 34 minutes Saturday. Ultimately, that leg of the parlay will come down to Embiid's rebounding. If the Hawks are able to make this a closer game, I like Embiid's chances to play 35-plus minutes and notch his second double-double of the postseason.
There wasn't a ton of value in just normal bets so I decided to bust out a bit of parlay magic. Gobert is basically a lock for a double-double. The big man has picked up a double-double in 12 of the last 13 games dating back to the regular season and mostly seems to be avoiding foul trouble which feels like the only way he could miss the mark. Collins under 1.5 made threes is probably the more likely hang up. He's only averaging 2.3 attempted threes throughout the course of the series, but more importantly I just can't imagine he suddenly becomes more assertive with the Hawks' backs against the wall.