2025-26 NBA Southwest Division Preview: Rockets Lead the Charge

Learn about the transformative offseason moves in the NBA's Southwest Division for 2025-26: Durant to the Rockets, Flagg to the Mavs, and more.

August 18, 2025

2025-26 NBA Southwest Division Preview: Rockets Lead the Charge

By:

Juan Pablo Aravena

August 18, 2025

NBA Team Previews

It only took a couple of offseason trades and some draft moves to drastically change the outlook of the Southwest Division in the NBA ahead of the 2025-26 season. Kevin Durant joined the Rockets, Desmond Bane was traded from the Grizzlies to the Magic, and the Spurs continued their rebuilding process with another solid draft haul. Speaking of the draft, the Mavericks drafted Cooper Flagg with the first-overall pick in the 2025 NBA Draft. And the Pelicans...are waiting on Zion Williamson again?

Let's dive deep into a comprehensive preview of the Southwest Division ahead of the 2025-26 NBA season.

The Rockets are finally ready to contend

The Rockets were one of the biggest surprises of the 2024-25 NBA season and finished with the second-best record in the Western Conference at 52-30. However, they lost in the first round of the playoffs against the Warriors. To avoid another early playoff exit in 2025-26, the Rockets decided to swing for the fences, and they managed to knock it out of the park after acquiring Durant. Adding the star forward should drastically improve an offense that ranked 14th in scoring in 2024-25 with 114.3 points per game.

Let's dive deep into a comprehensive preview of the Southwest Division ahead of the 2025-26 NBA season.

The Rockets are finally ready to contend

The Rockets parted ways with Jalen Green and Dillon Brooks in the Durant trade, but adding Durant should cover for those losses. In a clear sign of the team's contending aspirations, they rounded out the roster with proven veterans such as Clint Capela and Dorian Finney-Smith, both on multi-year deals, and Josh Okogie on a one-season pact. Without a doubt, the Rockets look like the team to beat in the division, but also appear to be the biggest threat to the Oklahoma City Thunder in the West. With a core of Durant, Fred VanVleet and Alperen Sengun leading the way, Houston should be in position to have an outstanding season and make a deep playoff run.

Are the Mavericks ready to make noise in the West again?

The Mavericks are a curious case, to say the least. They received a fair amount of criticism, and rightfully so, after trading Luka Dončić to the Los Angeles Lakers last season. However, they got Anthony Davis in return, and they still boast Kyrie Irving on the roster. Irving, however, will miss the first few months of the season due to an ACL tear but could return in January 2026. But as if that star duo wasn't enough, the Mavs also added Cooper Flagg, arguably the most dominant prospect in NCAA since Zion Williamson, with the first overall pick in the 2025 NBA Draft. That's a solid haul for a team that finished the 2024-25 season with a 39-43 record and with more questions than answers when it came to analyzing their long-term roster construction.

In short -- the Mavericks are ready to contend for a playoff spot once again, and maybe more. There are several areas in which the Mavericks could use improvements, and the health of players like Irving and Davis will go a long way toward the team's contending chances, but all things considered, this looks like a solid roster. At full health, the Mavs would boast an opening unit of Irving, Klay Thompson, Flagg, Davis and Dereck Lively. That's a solid core that should be imposing defensively and efficient on offense. It probably won't be enough to make the Mavs a Top-4 team in the West, but they certainly profile as the second-best team in the division.

San Antonio staying on its own path

The Spurs are in the midst of a rebuilding process, though the franchise has accelerated it a bit over the last 12 months. Even though Victor Wembanyama missed most of the second half of the 2024-25 season with a blood clot issue, he's expected to be ready for the start of training camp this fall. He should be the go-to piece on both ends of the court for the Spurs, but he has a decent core next to him in De'Aaron Fox, who recently signed a multi-year extension, and Stephon Castle. The Spurs also acquired Dylan Harper with the No. 2 pick in the 2025 NBA Draft.

It's hard to see the Spurs making a run at the division after posting a 34-48 record in 2024-25. However, their depth should be increased for this season after adding Kelly Olynyk and Luke Kornet to shore up the frontcourt. The progression of the young players will be the Spurs' main goal once again in 2025-26, but with Wembanyama and Fox leading the way, don't be surprised if the Spurs make a run at the Play-In Tournament or even a bottom seed in the postseason. The Western Conference remains ultra competitive, but the Spurs certainly look in a promising position to make the playoffs for the first time since the 2018-19 campaign.

Analyzing the Grizzlies' true identity

The Grizzlies underwent lots of changes during the 2024-25 season, and that resulted in them finishing with a 48-34 record and a first-round playoff exit against the Oklahoma City Thunder. Tuomas Iisalo will lead the way after finishing the previous campaign as an interim, and Memphis will have to adjust to life without Desmond Bane, who was traded to the Magic in the offseason. Bane had been the Grizzlies' second-best player throughout prolonged stretches over the last two seasons, and it's uncertain if Kentavious Caldwell-Pope will be able to replicate his production.

Thus, the Grizzlies will probably revert to their gritty identity, one that makes the team stand out on the defensive end of the court. They'll rely heavily on Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson, though Morant's absences, as well as Jackson's long-awaited offensive explosion (that hasn't quite happened yet), certainly limit the ceiling of the team. The Grizzlies don't have a lot of players to rely on offensively if Morant and Jackson are struggling, so on paper, they seem to be a step behind the Rockets and Mavericks. Memphis' best bet for the 2025-26 season would once again be fighting for a Play-In berth unless Morant takes over and delivers the best year of his career. Even in that scenario, the Grizzlies aren't anywhere near being able to crack the Top-4 in the ultra-competitive Western Conference.

What are the Pelicans' plans for 2025-26?

Finally, we have the Pelicans. New Orleans is a tough team to figure out, but one thing is certain: if there was an award for the team with the worst luck in the 2024-25 NBA season, the Pelicans would've won it by a landslide. Most -- if not all -- of their key players missed considerable time with injuries, and that led them to finish with a disappointing 21-61 record, the second-worst in the Western Conference. The question is simple, then. Where do the Pelicans go from here? They have some quality pieces on the roster, but is a return to health enough to transform a 21-win club into a potential playoff hopeful? The answer is not that simple, especially when seeing that the team's biggest star has had injury issues throughout his career.

The Pelicans have Williamson as their core player, but the depth pieces and co-starters are intriguing, to say the least. The Pelicans also feature a proven scorer in Jordan Poole, a do-it-all guard in Dejounte Murray, two defensive aces in Herbert Jones and Trey Murphy, and depth down low with Yves Missi, 2025 lottery pick Derik Queen and veteran Kevon Looney. The biggest piece of the puzzle remains Williamson, though. If he stays healthy and produces, we're looking at a player who could easily average 25 points, seven rebounds, six assists and 1.5 steals per game. If he's not on the court, though, then the Pelicans could be bound to face another long season stuck in the middle of nowhere. At least on paper, they look like one of the weakest teams in the division. But on the same note, they might be the biggest bet in terms of upside and potential for a turnaround after a disastrous 2024-25 year.