Hoops Lab: Diamonds in the Rough

Last week I debuted a method of looking for potential breakout players in the scoring/efficiency/three-pointers categories by 1) examining the True Shooting Percentage top 20 for this season, 2) looking at the per-36 minute volume production for some players not getting big minutes, then 3) projecting their likelihood to get bigger minutes next season. Today, I'll apply that same methodology to the non-shooting/scoring categories. Let's look at rebounding, shot-blocking, assists and steals. Interesting names from the top 20 in the efficiency categories for each of those stats:

Rebound Percentage (e.g. ratio of rebounds a player gets vs. the total rebounds available when he's on the court):

7. Jonas Valanciunas: 11.9 rebounds per 36 min, 26.3 minutes played
14. Ed Davis: 11.5 rebounds per 36 min, 23.5 minutes played

Block Percentage (e.g. estimated ratio of blocked shots a player gets vs. the total shots taken when he's on the court):

5. Alex Len: 2.5 blocks per 36 min, 21.9 minutes played
12. Ed Davis: 2.0 blocks per 36 min, 23.5 minutes played
13. Gorgui Dieng: 2.0 blocks per 36 min, 30.3 minutes played
18. Timofey Mozgov: 1.8 blocks per 36 min, 25.5 minutes played

Assist Percentage (e.g. ratio of assists a player gets vs. the total shots made when he's on the court):

12. Dennis Schroder: 7.5 assists per 36 min, 19.8 minutes played
18. Reggie Jackson: 6.7 assists per 36 min, 28.9 minutes played
20. D.J. Augustin: 6.7 assists per 36 min, 24.2 minutes played

Steal Percentage (e.g. estimate of the percentage of opponent possessions that end with a steal by player while he was on the floor):

14. Shane Larkin: 1.8 steals per 36 min, 23.6 minutes played
16. Marcus Smart: 1.9 steals per 36 min, 26.5 minutes played

A Couple Notes

•Rudy Gobert was No. 5 in rebound percentage and No. 1 in block percentage, but since he's already broken out this season I didn't think he needed to be projected as a sleeper. Similar story with Nerlens Noel (No. 6 in block%, No. 5 in steal%) and Elfrid Payton (No. 16 in assist%, No. 12 in steal%).

• I also left off some veteran players who scored well like Omer Asik (No. 3 in rebound%), Luis Scola, Tristan Thompson in rebounding; Mo Williams in assists; and Corey Brewer, Mario Chalmers, Iman Shumpert and Trevor Ariza in steals on the idea that they are who they are at this point.

The List

•Jonas Valanciunas is one of the more interesting breakout candidates in this list because he obviously has both the talent and the opportunity. Those who read last week's Hoops Lab know that he was also among the top 20 in true shooting percentage, and his per-36 minute scoring numbers were as solid as his rebounding numbers. All he has to do is prove he can handle the minutes, and his stock could take a big jump next year.

•Ed Davis has proven this year to have jack-of-all-trades talent, but he has not grabbed ahold of a starting job yet in his career. He is in the top 20 in true shooting percentage, rebound percentage and block percentage while playing 23.5 minutes per game. His per-36 minute numbers have been similar throughout his career, and this year in the eight games he's played between 30 and 39 minutes he has averaged a virtual double-double with 11 points, 9.8 boards and 1.5 blocks in 32.2 minutes per game.

•Alex Len was drafted No. 5 overall two years ago, and at 21 he has a lot of upside that he has flirted with touching this season. In eight games in which he's played between 30 and 39 minutes he has averaged 10.5 points, 10.9 boards and 2.5 blocks in 33.8 minutes per game.

•Gorgui Dieng showed last season when Nikola Pekovic went down that he had starting upside, and he has solidified that this season when Pekovic has been injured again. Dieng has started 48 games as a sophomore, averaging 11 points, 9.0 boards, 2.0 blocks and 1.1 steals in 33.7 minutes.

•Timofey Mozgov is another who was in the top 20 in true shooting percentage as well, and seems to have the opportunity to grow into a larger role in Cleveland. This season in 16 games when he's played between 30 and 39 minutes he has averaged 13.7 points, 11.1 rebounds and 1.8 blocks in 34.4 minutes per game.

•Dennis Schroder is an exciting young prospect who, at 21 in his second season, has proven that his production can scale up nicely to more minutes. He has started nine games, averaging 14.1 points with 8.2 assists, 3.1 boards and roughly a steal and a trey in 29.3 minutes per game. He is behind another good point guard in Jeff Teague, but Schroder seems like a young player on the rise.

•Reggie Jackson, or as RotoWire colleague Kyle Mckeown calls him "Reggie Melon Farming Jackson," was thought to be a good prospect stuck in a reserve role when he was behind Russell Westbrook in Oklahoma City. He then was traded to the Pistons, and in his last two weeks as a starter he has exploded for 21.2 points, 11.8 assists, 6.8 rebounds and 1.2 treys in 33 minutes per game. Jackson is a restricted free agent this offseason. He obviously has the talent, it's all about where he ends up next year.

•D.J. Augustin has shown, when he's had starter minutes, that he can put up good production. His problem is that every team that trades for him seems to want him to be the backup. He had a run in Detroit earlier this year where he was a regular 20-10 threat, but now he's backing up Westbrook in OKC and only has handcuff upside until he gets his own gig.

• Shane Larkin is a youngster getting extra time for a Knicks team that threw in the towel months ago, but he has not yet shown himself to be a prospect to start on good team in the next year or so. I see him remaining a backup next season.

•Marcus Smart was drafted to be the point guard of the future in Boston even when the Celtics still had Rajon Rondo. The job should be his when he's ready, but it's been clear that he isn't quite ready to run the team full-time as a rookie. That said, it seems like he'll have every opportunity to develop and get more minutes until he is ready for the big time.

Around the League

• Durant is done: Kevin Durant will have another surgery on his foot and is out for the next four to six months. The foot never got all the way right this season, making it a lost one for the reigning MVP and anyone that drafted him. This ensures that we will continue to get video-game level Russell Westbrook for the remainder of the year.

• Resting Hawks and Warriors: I've written a lot in this space about teams resting players periodically this season, but with the Hawks and Warriors both clinching the No. 1 seeds in their respective conferences, expect them to rest their players very liberally from here on. On Saturday night the Hawks sat their entire starting five while the Warriors rested Andre Iguodala and Draymond Green. It will be hard to rely on your players from either team on a weekly basis, and on a daily basis make sure you check their availability before each game.

• Cousins may sit some:DeMarcus Cousins will sat Monday night and is expected to get more time off down the stretch. He has hinted for awhile that he wants to rest more down the stretch of another lost season, and it appears that the Kings' coaching staff is ready to oblige him.

• Favors' back issues:Derrick Favors had to leave Friday's game with back spasms and was forced to sit Saturday and Monday, as well. There is no word on how long he will be out. Trevor Booker started in his place both games.

• Knight nearing return:Brandon Knight had missed the last eight games after spraining his ankle, but he returned Sunday night. He was obviously rusty, making only one of his 10 shot attempts but played 22 minutes off the bench. In Knight's absence Marcus Morris has moved into the starting lineup and played well (see New Additions, below) so it will be interesting to see who gets the minutes once Knight is back at full speed.

• Ellis' calf:Monta Ellis had to leave Friday's game with a right calf injury, and he sat out Sunday's game as well, which broke a 237 games-played streak. Ellis is day-to-day, and his next chance to play is Wednesday.

• Wade's knee and Whiteside's hand:Dwyane Wade had his knee drained Saturday. His knee had slowed him and forced him to miss some time the last couple weeks right when he was starting to play his best basketball. Of course, one day after getting drained he detonated to the tune of 40 points, six boards and four assists in a team-high 36 minutes. Hassan Whiteside, meanwhile, cut his hand on the rim and has missed three consecutive games as a result. The Heat are fighting for their playoff lives, so Wade and Whiteside will be on the court as often as possible. Wade's knee makes him the riskier of the two to miss on any given night.

• Gallinari sitting back-to-backs: Danilo Gallinari has now sat out the second game of three straight back-to-back outings, which seems like a pattern that could continue for the rest of the season. Gallinari has played well when he's been on the court, but with the Nuggets out of contention and freely resting their players anyway, it doesn't seem likely that they will push him to play in B2Bs any more this year.

• Beverley done for season:Patrick Beverley will undergo a procedure to repair torn ligaments in his left wrist, which ends his season. Jason Terry is likely to start in Beverley's place, which makes him a low-upside but interesting pickup down the stretch.

New Additions

•Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (43 percent owned in Yahoo Leagues): Caldwell-Pope has played well the last several games with Greg Monroe out, as the Pistons have gone to a more perimeter-heavy attack with KCP and Reggie Jackson leading the way. KCP has averaged 21 points, 6.3 boards, 2.7 treys, 2.0 steals and 2.0 assists over the last week.

•Zaza Pachulia (41 percent owned): Pachulia has been solid with flashes of absurd brilliance the last few weeks. He has scored in double-digits in 10 games in a row and has five double-doubles over that stretch. His highlight games were a 22-point, 21-rebound, seven-assist outing March 20 and a 14-point, 11-rebound, seven-assist, five-steal effort two games later.

•Aaron Brooks (39 percent owned): Brooks has been the primary guard to own in Chicago since Derrick Rose and Jimmy Butler got hurt, and even with Butler back Brooks has still proven solid on the whole (if inconsistent from game-to-game). He has averaged 13.7 points, 6.7 assists and 2.0 treys over the last week.

•Jameer Nelson (34 percent owned): Nelson is still playing the back-up point guard slot in Denver, but he has been called upon as more of one third of a three-headed lead guard unit with Ty Lawson and Randy Foye. In this role he has averaged 16.8 points, 3.8 assists and 2.8 treys over the last week.

•Marcus Morris (33 percent owned): Morris joined his twin-brother Markieff in the starting lineup for the Suns while Brandon Knight was injured, and both he and the team have played well with the switch. Over the last week Marcus has outplayed Markieff, averaging 16.3 points, 8.7 boards, 3.3 assists, 2.3 treys and 1.7 steals in more than 35 minutes per game.

Keeping up with the Professor

If you're interested in my takes throughout the week, you can follow me on Twitter @ProfessorDrz. Also, don't forget that you can catch me on RotoWire Fantasy Sports Today with Chris Liss and Jeff Erickson on XM 87, Sirius 210. I also co-host the RotoWire Fantasy Basketball Podcast with Kyle McKeown once a week and co-host the Celtics Beat podcast on CLNS Radio about once a month.