Defenses to avoid: Dallas Mavericks, vs LAL: The Mavericks are sneakily one of the better defenses in DFS, in part because they play at a slow pace. They have allowed the fewest fantasy points to point guards and are among the stingiest defenses across the board. The Lakers are guard-heavy, but that is the strength of the Mavericks' defense.
Offense to use: Washington Wizards, at PHO: The Lakers are a worse defense across the board than the Suns, but the Wizards have a better offense than the Mavericks with more likely contributors. John Wall is the second-most-elite prospect playing on Tuesday, and Bradley Beal is the most elite non-point guard prospect. Add in Markieff Morris as the top-rated power forward playing against his former team, along with Otto Porter, Marcin Gortat and Bojan Bogdanovic, and the Wizards win out over the Mavs as the recommended offense.
Teams on Back-to-Backs:
First game: Wizards
Second game: Trail Blazers
Russell Westbrook, OKC vs POR ($13,400): Westbrook had averaged 38.7 points, 13 rebounds, 10.5 assists and 1.8 steals over six games before “struggling” to only 29 points, six boards and five assists against a Mavericks defense that allows the fewest fantasy points to point guards this season. He has a better matchup Tuesday against a Trail Blazers squad that he lit up for 45 points, seven rebounds, four assists and two combined blocks/steals when they met last Thursday.
Bradley Beal, WAS at PHO ($7,800): Beal has averaged 28.2 points, 3.7 boards, 3.3 assists and 1.6 steals in his last six games. He has the highest expected value of any non-point guard, especially against a Suns defense that has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to shooting guards over the last 10 games.
Tyler Ulis, PHO vs WAS ($4,600): Ulis has four straight productive games, with the last two ramped up to impact status with averages of 17 points, six assists, three boards and two steals in 27 minutes off the bench for the Suns. He plays a lot against the opposing bench, and also a significant amount as a co-point guard next to Eric Bledsoe, which should help mitigate that the Wizards are one of the toughest defenses in the league against point guards.
Markieff Morris, PHO vs WAS ($6,500): Morris is the leading scoring power forward playing on Tuesday, and he is facing a Suns team that parted ways with him last deadline. Those same Suns also allow the fifth-most fantasy points to power forwards on the season.
T.J. Warren, PHO vs WAS ($5,900): Warren has been a metronome since P.J. Tucker left town, averaging a low-variance 17 points, 6.8 rebounds and 1.5 combined blocks/steals in his last six games.
Maurice Harkless, POR at OKC ($5,300): Harkless is consistently productive with Evan Turner out, averaging 13 points with 6.4 rebounds, 1.4 blocks and 1.3 steals in his last seven games. He produced a near-double-double with 10 points and nine rebounds last Thursday when last he faced the Thunder.
Jusuf Nurkic, POR at OKC ($6,800): Nurkic dropped 18 points, 12 rebounds, six assists, five blocks and two steals on the Thunder last Thursday. While that level of production may not be repeated, he has averaged 18 points, 8.3 boards, 5.3 assists, 2.0 blocks and 1.0 steals over his last three games as a whole, and that level of production may be a realistic expected value projection for Tuesday.
Alan Williams, PHO vs WAS ($6,700): Williams has double-doubles in four of his last five games, and even though his price has increased significantly he is still possibly the best value center buy if he continues to perform at that level. On Tuesday, he faces a Wizards defense that has allowed the 14th-most fantasy points to centers in the last 10 games.
Tarik Black, LAL at DAL ($3,100): Black could be in for more minutes if Ivaka Zubac (quad, questionable) sits. Larry Nance Jr. is already out, thinning the big man ranks, but if Zubac sits Black could be in for legitimate minutes. If this happens, he makes a reasonable punt play for almost the min.