This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
Everyone with a bracket knows the drill. Friday brings us another thrilling day of March Madness. Here are my best bets for the second half of the Round of 64.
UAB 
vs. San Diego State
UAB earned its ticket to the Big Dance thanks to an American Athletic Conference tournament championship, but the Blazers still collected a fair amount of quality wins throughout the season, even if it wasn't in consideration for an at-large bid. UAB defeated Maryland, Drake, North Texas (twice), Florida Atlantic, and South Florida. The Blazers were also one buzzer-beating shot away from adding Clemson to the list, giving us a competitive 12-seed in our bracket.
San Diego State, meanwhile, enters the tournament on the strength of its resume and reputation. Coming off their run to the NCAA tournament final a season ago, the Aztecs shot out of the gate and won 14 of its first 16 games, but it has since failed to match the same level of play, never winning more than two consecutive games since that initial stretch. The up-and-down results during conference season stem from the dip in performance outside of Viejas Arena, losing six of nine road conference games. This inconsistent trend has not got one away, as San Diego State has trailed at halftime in its last five consecutive games, usually not a good sign this time of year.
When the Blazers have the ball, they face a tough defensive challenge, but they do a couple of things well that should give them a chance at pulling an upset. UAB ranks 60th in adjusted offensive efficiency, with their strength lying on the inside where they have outstanding numbers. The Blazers have the 22nd-highest offensive rebounding percentage among all D1 teams, and they rank 20th in free throw attempt rate. The latter will likely come into play on Friday, as San Diego State's defense, though elite, has had trouble with fouling, ranking 200th in free throw attempt rate allowed. UAB previously put up 66 points against Maryland in a win, and it also swept North Texas, the two best defensive teams on its schedule outside of SDSU, giving us evidence that the Blazers are capable of breaking down a strong defensive team and winning.
When the Aztecs have the ball, they won't face an elite defense, but UAB has shown that it can overcome a strong offensive team, like when it beat Florida Atlantic and Drake. The difference in this matchup is that San Diego State doesn't exactly qualify as a great offensive team. The Aztecs rank 59th in efficiency, not bad necessarily, but the underlying numbers suggest questionable shot selection. San Diego State is making 31 percent of its shots from behind the arc, 307th in the nation, yet they're attempting them at a frequency above the D1 average. For comparison, the Aztecs only have one player making over 34 percent with attempting at least 100 shots, while UAB has three players (two starters) that fit the same criteria. This means that the SDSU will most likely need to knock down its two-pointers if it wants to win, but the Blazers have shown they're no pushovers in the paint. UAB held AAC opponents to 49 percent on shots inside the arc during conference play, the fifth-best percentage allowed in the league.
It's tough to bet against San Diego State's defense, but at the same time, I'd argue it's even tougher to bet on its offense covering a medium-sized spread against a tenacious 12-seed. Based on the matchup and resume of each team, I'm taking the points with the Blazers in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: UAB +7.5
Texas A&M 
vs. Nebraska 
The Aggies had won five consecutive games before losing to Florida in the SEC Conference semifinals, a team that's heating up at the right time. Despite the loss, Texas A&M jumped out to an 18-point lead against Florida, and only lost after the Gators caught fire, making 14-of-26 shots from behind the arc. Either way, Texas A&M is playing well and has many impressive wins throughout the season, defeating Iowa State, Kentucky (twice), Florida, Tennessee, and Mississippi State, giving us a squad with a high ceiling.
In addition to being led by star point guard Wade Taylor, Texas A&M has perhaps the toughest frontcourt in the nation. The Aggies boast the highest offensive rebounding percentage among all D1 teams, and they also recorded the highest defensive rebounding percentage in the SEC during conference play, making them seem unbeatable on the glass. Also, thanks to its outstanding guard play, Texas A&M is among the best at taking care of the ball, ranking second in the SEC in offensive turnover percentage and 21st among all D1 teams in the same category. As one might expect considering all the other numbers, the Aggies are also among the best at winning the free throw attempt margin. Texas A&M ranked third in the SEC in offensive free throw attempt rate and ranked first in the same category on defense. Of course, I should note that there's a catch. Despite being elite in just about every important category, Texas A&M has had severe issues shooting the ball, which would explain how it suffered 14 losses up to this point.
Nebraska, in contrast, has had major rebounding issues since the conference season started, recording the worst offensive rebounding percentage and the fourth-worst defensive rebounding percentage in the Big Ten. The Huskers also don't attack the basket as much compared to other teams, logging the second-lowest offensive free-throw attempt rate in their conference. The other critical difference between these two teams is that Nebraska played one of the easiest non-conference schedules in the country, ranking 322nd in difficulty according to KenPom. The Huskers had only two real tests before league play started. They got demolished at home by Creighton, 89-60, and then earned arguably its second-best win of the season, a road victory at Kansas State. Outside of this game, all of Nebraska's most notable wins came at home against a conference opponent.
It's certainly possible that the Aggies' shooting woes prevent them from advancing in the tournament, but I'm betting that its matchup advantages combined with its savvy backcourt personnel will propel them to victory. I'm going with the Aggies.
College Basketball Best Bet: Texas A&M +1.5
Charleston vs. Alabama 
When comparing these two teams side-by-side, they're eerily similar. Both teams are incredibly effective at scoring points. Both are a massive liability when playing defense. And both make it their mission to attack from the perimeter. Most avid college hoops fans are likely aware of Alabama's offensive game plan, namely their intense focus on launching three-pointers and attacking the rim. Well, the Tide has met its match, as Charleston is one of the few teams in the country that has a higher three-point attempt rate than Alabama.
The Cougars have made 35 percent of shots from behind the arc and rank 83rd in effective field goal percentage, so their strategy has clearly worked up to this point. Charleston is also great in two other categories that should help give it a reasonable chance of keeping the game close. First, the Cougars are among the most careful teams in the country, ranking 30th in offensive turnover percentage. Alabama doesn't typically reach for the ball on defense, ranking 278th in turnover percentage, so it wouldn't be surprising if Charleston wins the turnover margin. The Cougars are also among the best rebounding teams in the nation, ranking 46th in offensive percentage and 73rd in defensive rebounding. This will be key against Alabama, as the Crimson Tide has had trouble with securing defensive boards, coming in at 225th in defensive rebounding percentage.
The Crimson Tide has established itself as one of the best-scoring teams in the country, but the Cougars are good at two things on defense that should help them get some stops. As mentioned above, Charleston is strong on the defensive glass. One of Alabama's key strengths is its high offensive rebounding percentage, but this skill is mitigated by Charleston's prowess on the defensive glass. Additionally, the Cougars are also effective at playing defense without fouling, ranking 71st in free throw attempt rate allowed. This is also important because Alabama tends to draw contact when driving to the basket, ranking 110th in free throw attempt rate.
This pick is all about the matchup. If Alabama was playing a defensive-oriented team that couldn't score, I might be more inclined to think Alabama could blow past them. This is not the case. Instead, the Crimson Tide are facing a team that scores almost 40 percent of its total points from behind the arc, the 13th-highest mark among all D1 teams. Alabama may get enough stops late in the game to pull away, but in the month of March, I'm betting on Madness. I'm taking the points in this spot.
College Basketball Best Bet: Charleston +9.5
Friday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Friday:
- UAB +7.5
- Texas A&M +1.5
- Charleston +9.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
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