This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
With conference season tipping off for several more teams on Saturday's slate, Steve Peralta previews three select matchups and offers his best bets of the day.
Utah at 
Stanford
Utah's defense is playing at an incredibly high level this season. At the start of December, they defeated Arizona, holding the Wildcats to a season-low 66 points. Arizona has scored at least 75 points in every other game this season, with Tennessee being the only other team to hold the Wildcats to under 80 points. Utah has had its best performances against conference competition, holding Washington State to 59 points in regulation before winning in overtime, then more recently won at California, 58-43. The Golden Bears have had trouble scoring all season, but nonetheless, Utah still held them to a season low. Furthermore, the Utes' defense has the third-lowest effective field goal percentage allowed among all D1 teams.
Stanford, meanwhile, doesn't have the same impressive defense numbers as Utah but still needs strong defensive play in order to win games. Stanford enters Saturday's game with a 5-8 record and has lost most of its games due to its inability to score. The Cardinal have held opponents to 62 points or fewer in five games and yet lost two of those games, unable to score more than 50 points in two of those instances. Part of their problem is that they've had trouble with long-range shooting, making under 31 percent of its attempts from behind the arc. Among players that have started at least one game for Stanford, only one player (Maxime Raynaud) is shooting over 30 percent on three-point attempts, and he's only taken 15 attempts all season. Stanford needs to score inside if it wants to have any offensive success, but Utah is holding opponents to 41 percent on two-point attempts, the fifth-lowest percentage allowed in the country, so this matchup will likely be a massive up-hill climb for the Cardinal.
While it's tempting to take Utah to win, they too have had problems scoring this season. Stanford is desperate for a win and is still a respectable team despite its losing record. Considering both teams are defensive-oriented with offensive inconsistencies, a low-scoring game seems like the most likely outcome. I'm on the under for this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Under 134.5
Pepperdine at 
Gonzaga
Gonzaga enters the West Coast Conference season playing its best basketball of the year. The Bulldogs have scored 85-plus points in four consecutive games, including a 100-point performance on the road against Alabama, a team that ranks top-15 in adjusted defensive efficiency. Gonzaga also scored 88 points against Kentucky earlier in the season, another team with an outstanding defense, so the Bulldogs know how to score against the best. Saturday's opponent doesn't come close to either of these two in defensive abilities, so Gonzaga is primed for another massive scoring output.
Pepperdine, although not an offensive juggernaut, scored 70-plus points in six of seven games before losing its most recent game to Iona, 76-66. Pepperdine loves to play as fast as possible, ranking No. 23 in adjusted tempo, which is no surprise considering head coach Lorenzo Romar has maintained this style of play for the past 20 years. This tempo inevitably leads to incredibly high-scoring games, even if it comes at the Waves' expense. The last time Pepperdine played a team that ranked nearly as high as Gonzaga in offensive efficiency, the Waves lost to UCLA, 100-53. Thankfully for Pepperdine, Gonzaga's defense isn't nearly as impenetrable as UCLA's, although it still faces a difficult challenge in traveling to Spokane. Last year when Pepperdine played at Gonzaga, in a matchup that featured many of the same players that will be on the court on Saturday, Gonzaga walloped Pepperdine by a final score of 117-83.
Gonzaga will likely win in a blowout, but it has a big number to cover. If its defense isn't in top form then Pepperdine will probably stay within range. The Bulldogs' offense, on the other hand, seems like a safe bet any way you look at it. They've already registered 100-plus points in four games this season and, if last year's matchup offers any insight, they have a decent shot at a fifth by the time Saturday concludes. I'll take the over in this matchup.
College Basketball Best Bet: Over 159
West Virginia at 
Kansas St.
West Virginia tips off conference play with a promising 10-2 record. Its only two losses came away from home against Purdue and Xavier, two of the best-scoring teams in the country. The Mountaineers played well during non-conference season, collecting victories over UAB, Florida, and at Pittsburgh. The latter outcome is looking more and more impressive, as Pittsburgh's stock has shot up since it got roughed up at home against West Virginia.
Kansas State also begins conference season with a near-perfect record, 11-1, although its current resume isn't as impressive as West Virginia's. Kansas State played one of the easiest non-conference schedules in the country, ranking No. 254 in difficulty, per KenPom, so we're about to find out a lot more about the Wildcats as the difficulty gets turned up a few notches. Kansas State has a couple of quality wins this season, although the results could have easily gone the other way. The Wildcats beat Nevada and LSU in the Cayman Islands back in November, but the former went into overtime and the latter was just a two-point game. In contrast, West Virginia's two Quad 1 wins were by margins of 20-plus points, much more impressive any way you look at it.
Looking at Saturday's matchup, West Virginia has the upper hand on both ends of the court, ranking higher in both offensive and defensive adjusted efficiency, per KenPom. Moreover, Kansas State has had trouble turning the ball over, ranking No. 234 in offensive turnover rate. This is the least desirable trait a team could have when facing "Press Virginia," as the Mountaineers are once again stealing the ball at an incredibly high rate, with the 27th highest defensive steal rate among all D1 teams. Although they're aggressive on defense, West Virginia has managed to not be sloppy on offense, ranking No. 67 in offensive turnover rate. Considering these numbers, it's a safe bet that the Mountaineers will win the turnover battle in Saturday's game.
Looking at how these two teams performed during non-conference season, West Virginia was clearly the better team. Winning a road conference game is never a given, but the Mountaineers have all the tools to get the job done on Saturday. I'll take the Mountaineers in this matchup.
College Basketball Best Bet: West Virginia +1
Saturday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Saturday:
- Utah at Stanford - Under 134.5
- Pepperdine at Gonzaga - Over 159
- West Virginia +1
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the College Basketball odds page on RotoWire.
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